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  • Originally posted by Stylizer View Post

    Been awhile, sorry. Just get into my daily routine and life gets faster.

    How everyting?
    Yeah I get it man, no worries. Not much to be excited about lately as Sens fans either.. what a train wreck.

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    • In the past three seasons, Pittsburgh and Washington have played a combined 10 playoff series. In that time, they have only ever been eliminated by each other.

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      • Drafting vs. Development: Kevin LaBanc, a case study.

        Here is a kid who came from tier iii junior in USA hockey and got picked up by the USNDP. As you might imagine, most of the players, and most of the top line players for USNDP come from tier i leagues. Actually a lot from high school hockey too, but very few from tier iii junior. So he was a bit behind his peers, but someone in USA hockey saw something and vouched for him.

        Whether due to his raw talents being underdeveloped or to his status from the beginning as *not one of the stars*, he was utilized as a depth forward for the USNDP. Also he was a December birthday, so one of the youngest players in a program based on birth year.

        So then he goes to OHL, being a late birthday, he's still a year away from draft. Goes there and does 35 points in 65 games. Drafted by San Jose in the 6th round. Suddenly the next year he did 107 in 68 games, followed by 127 points in 65 games. Whoa. What did San Jose say to him / do with him?

        The Sharks seem to be hitting some gems lately, but LaBanc's situation in particular has me wondering how much development plays a role in this. Obviously he had raw talent, but what happened? Specified workout plans? Skill coaches? Nutritionists? Just sitting him down and giving him a clear program of what he needs to work on and do to improve?

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        • Originally posted by matchesmalone View Post
          Drafting vs. Development: Kevin LaBanc, a case study.

          Here is a kid who came from tier iii junior in USA hockey and got picked up by the USNDP. As you might imagine, most of the players, and most of the top line players for USNDP come from tier i leagues. Actually a lot from high school hockey too, but very few from tier iii junior. So he was a bit behind his peers, but someone in USA hockey saw something and vouched for him.

          Whether due to his raw talents being underdeveloped or to his status from the beginning as *not one of the stars*, he was utilized as a depth forward for the USNDP. Also he was a December birthday, so one of the youngest players in a program based on birth year.

          So then he goes to OHL, being a late birthday, he's still a year away from draft. Goes there and does 35 points in 65 games. Drafted by San Jose in the 6th round. Suddenly the next year he did 107 in 68 games, followed by 127 points in 65 games. Whoa. What did San Jose say to him / do with him?

          The Sharks seem to be hitting some gems lately, but LaBanc's situation in particular has me wondering how much development plays a role in this. Obviously he had raw talent, but what happened? Specified workout plans? Skill coaches? Nutritionists? Just sitting him down and giving him a clear program of what he needs to work on and do to improve?
          Yeah, definitely an interesting case. The Sharks picked him at exactly the right time in his development. Seems on track to become a great player.

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          • I was trying to wrap my head around late-round gems and saw that Jamie Benn had a perfectly respectable 65 points in the BCHL before getting drafted in the fifth round. And then I saw that Kyle Turris had 121 points in the same season in the same league in the same number of games played. And then I decided I don't want to think about the draft anymore and that I'm never going to look into this stuff again.

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            • Been spending a bit of time lately working on adding to and updating my league rankings list. This prospect has got to be one of the more useful case studies I've come across for that purpose: https://www.eliteprospects.com/playe...8/ian-mcdonald

              For one thing he just doesn't really seem to ever develop. Over 5 years in WHL he only really broke out when he was overaged, and I'm assuming his profession from year to year was as much about increasing ice time as player development. Level stats over 4 years of USports.

              When comparing leagues, you want to look at players moving between leagues in broadly their prime years. A player going from SHL to AHL at age 20 is tricky, because if his points per game increase, does that mean the AHL is a weaker league, or did he make a jump in his development? And vice versa as players start getting past 30. Also accounting for players adjusting from NA to European ice and style is no exact science.

              Anyway, after Ian McDonald leaves USports is where he becomes useful. We see he struggles a bit in ECHL, a mens pro league, tougher than USports. But then he goes over to England, and we see that EIHL is of roughly similar quality to USports.

              The very next season he goes to the Netherlands, which is apparently a far weaker league than USports or EIHL, since he dominates the league. He then goes to Norway, as we can see, a stronger league than Netherlands, but weaker than EIHL or USports. The next two years he continues to advance to slightly better leagues each time, first Kazhakstan, and then France, the strongest league he has played in at least since England.

              ... And now to try to figure out what all these other leagues are that he played in after and where they rank.

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              • Originally posted by matchesmalone View Post
                Been spending a bit of time lately working on adding to and updating my league rankings list. This prospect has got to be one of the more useful case studies I've come across for that purpose: https://www.eliteprospects.com/playe...8/ian-mcdonald

                For one thing he just doesn't really seem to ever develop. Over 5 years in WHL he only really broke out when he was overaged, and I'm assuming his profession from year to year was as much about increasing ice time as player development. Level stats over 4 years of USports.

                When comparing leagues, you want to look at players moving between leagues in broadly their prime years. A player going from SHL to AHL at age 20 is tricky, because if his points per game increase, does that mean the AHL is a weaker league, or did he make a jump in his development? And vice versa as players start getting past 30. Also accounting for players adjusting from NA to European ice and style is no exact science.

                Anyway, after Ian McDonald leaves USports is where he becomes useful. We see he struggles a bit in ECHL, a mens pro league, tougher than USports. But then he goes over to England, and we see that EIHL is of roughly similar quality to USports.

                The very next season he goes to the Netherlands, which is apparently a far weaker league than USports or EIHL, since he dominates the league. He then goes to Norway, as we can see, a stronger league than Netherlands, but weaker than EIHL or USports. The next two years he continues to advance to slightly better leagues each time, first Kazhakstan, and then France, the strongest league he has played in at least since England.

                ... And now to try to figure out what all these other leagues are that he played in after and where they rank.
                Really looking forward to the outcome of this. The first one you did has held mostly true for quite a while, and I think you did that one kind of off the top of your head. A thorough examination should yield even more reliable and in depth results.

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                • Well some research went into the original list. I mean it was mostly just a lot of time spent deep diving through EliteProspects in general, but then when I decided to make the list there was some cross-referencing to do. This new one is complicated. There's a hell of a lot of leagues, and I want to include any one that knowing about might come in handy someday. This one could take a bit.

                  I'm thinking I'll start with some baselines. NHL will be 10, AHL will be 7.5, NCAA will be 5, and BCHL will be 2.5. The way I decided these was partly arbitrary, but basically, roughly, a player who would score 2 points per game in BCHL could score 1 ppg in NCAA could score .5 ppg in AHL could score .25 ppg in the NHL.

                  I experimented with the idea of just having tiers and fitting various leagues into each tier, but decided that would be a copout. I want to get pretty specific with this, so gonna stick with the old 10 point system.

                  The thing I'm noticing so far is, the KHL, SHL and AHL are all a lot closer than I remember them being. The SHL is not looking as strong as I remember it being. In a lot of instances the AHL almost looks better. The AHL even seems pretty close with the KHL at times, and there seemed to be some wild inconsistencies. But the cool thing, trying to figure out those inconsistencies, I was able to realize something that applies more generally - smaller, skilled players seem to adapt more readily moving from NA to Europe, and vice versa, players at least above 5'10 tend to have an easier time coming over to North America.

                  One that is really throwing me for a loop though: we've always known NLA was a very strong league, disproportionally so compared to the country's general hockey reputation, but now it seems to be even rivaling Finland and Sweden's top leagues.

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                  • One kind of neat thing, I'm noticing a surprising level of consistency in the NHL to AHL ratios. From one year to the next and even within the same year. It is uncanny how often I'm seeing a guy with one season with 23 points in 41 AHL games and 6 points in 22 NHL games, or a guy in his mid 20s with 66 points in 67 AHL games one year, and then 32 in 65 NHL games the next year. The rest of the ratios are lining up decently too.

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                    • I also came across an article, I think it was from 2016, that NLA had surpassed SHL as the 2nd best-attended league in Europe. But I guess that would have been the Matthews year so that could have something to do with it. Either way, clearly a really good league that at times seems even to rival the KHL. In fact I'm almost starting to ponder actually putting it ahead of SHL...

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                      • For some reason I feel like Gabriel Landeskog is supposed to be older than Tyler Myers, but Myers is actually 3 years Landeskog's senior!

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                        • Well here we go. Someone wins the Cup tonight!

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                          • The St. Louis Blues are about to win their first ever Stanley Cup!

                            Very hard Conn Smythe pick here. I like Binnington or Pietrangelo, but O'Reilly's made a great case. Hell, so have Parayko and Schwartz.

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                            • Congrats to the Blues, last place at one stage of last season and now champions.

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                              • Thank goodness it wasn't Boston.

                                Haha I remember I kept picking St Louis to win the Cup every year a few years back. I eventually gave up on them. Cool to see them finally get one.

                                I would have gone with Pietrangelo for Smythe from what I saw, but to be honest I didn't watch a ton of St. Louis in the playoffs. Only game of the finals I watched was game 7. O'Reilly seems like a sound pick.

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