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Bold 2013-2014 Predictions

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  • #31
    Re: Bold 2013-2014 Predictions

    Everything you say about hits is true. But they're still a morbidly flawed statistic, for all the reasons I mentioned and I'm not going to repeat. You can re-rraf my post if you'd like.

    And I say you must be seriously misunderstanding corsi, because why else would anybody post individual corsi events - and two separate lists of it no less - if they had any kind of grasp on the point of the stat. The corsi events generated by one individual on the ice is only a fraction of the corsi events generated while he is on the ice, and corsi is supposed to measure zone possession time when that player is on the ice, which his individual corsi events tell you very little about, especially if he's a defensive defenseman or more of a playmaker than a shooter. So yes, the only way to use corsi properly is as a team stat, and measure the players corsi relative to his team when he's on not on the ice. Is it flawed? Of course it is, but certainly no more than the hits and blocks stats you're so hung up on.

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    • #32
      Re: Bold 2013-2014 Predictions

      Well, OK, but I think it's important to point out a shortcoming here with these on-ice or relative stats. They make it hard to distinguish between the contributions of line-mates who play together often, and don't control for teams with one really good first line or one really good defensive pair (or the inverse). Say you have a team with one really strong first line but who are decidedly weak throughout the rest of the lineup. Star A and Star B are the ones really driving the line, but Player C gels well with them and the team doesn't have another star, so they keep Player C on that line for most of the season. At the end of the year, you're looking at player value and you take Player C's on-ice Corsi and conclude - wow, Player C must be really driving possession; the team generates x% more Corsi events when he's on the ice than they do when he isn't!

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      • #33
        Re: Bold 2013-2014 Predictions

        This phenomenon isn't new to corsi though. Steve Rucchin had 67 points playing between Kariya and Selane. Brendan Morrison had 71 playing between Naslund and Bertuzzi. Mike Knuble had 65 one year playing with OVechkin and Backstrom. Chris Kunitz has made a career out of and even earned an Olympic berth riding the coattails of superstars.

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