The key to a good mock draft, and the thing that most everyone - even the so-called experts - seems to miss, is that there are two parties to every draft pick: the player being picked, and the personnel doing the picking. Not team; personnel. Team needs play very little into draft picks in real life, contrary to what fans tend to believe. But what is worth looking at is general managers and their draft histories.
I made this mock draft about 75% based on my prospect rankings, and about 25% based on GM draft records. This was fairly difficult this year in particular, since there are so many new first-time GMs; in those cases I assumed that these GMs had a significant enough say in their previous jobs as assistant GMs that their draft records can be referenced efficaciously, albeit with a grain of salt.
1. Edmonton - Connor McDavid, C
2. Buffalo - Jack Eichel, C
3. Arizona - Dylan Strome, C - Already loaded with talent up front, but Arizona's prospect pool is largely lacking an elite Western Conference top line center. And Maloney rarely picks from anywhere but CHL in the first round.
4. Toronto - Mitch Marner, RW - Talk about draft history; Mark Hunter already drafted Marner once before, and it has paid off for the Knights in spades, although Hunter wasn't around long enough to see the dividends.
5. Carolina - Noah Hanifin, D - Hard to believe a player with Hanifin's upside could fall this far, but draft eligible 120 point scorers in the OHL usually go first or second overall. There is simply an absurd abundance of elite skilled forwards in this draft.
6. New Jersey - Zach Werenski, D - I had Crouse ranked ahead of Werenski, but Lamiorello loves to pick from college and USDP, and it's close enough that draft history takes the edge.
7. Philadelphia - Lawson Crouse, LW - A perfect fit for the Broadstreet Bullies should he actually fall this far.
8. Columbus - Pavel Zacha - C
9. San Jose - Ivan Provorov, D - I had him ranked sixth on my prospect list, but he falls slightly due to Russian factor. San Jose picks from all over the place in the first round.
10. Colorado - Matt Barzal, C - A lot of scouts think he could have been in Strome/Marner category had he been healthy all year. Joe Sakic might see a bit of himself in Barzal.
11. Florida - Mikko Rantanen, RW - Tallon picks from all over the place, but likely goes back to SM Liiga for the second time in three years for the skilled, rangy winger.
12. Dallas - Timo Meier, RW
13. L.A. - Thomas Chabot, D - We know Lombardi doesn't care much for conventional draft wisdom (see Wayne Simmonds, Kyle Clifford, Thomas Hickey). Chabot is a little off the.board here but he fits the direction LA is going; Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin: big, mobile, two-way defensemen.
14. Boston - Kyle Connor, LW/C
15. Calgary - Paul Bittner, LW - A big 6'5 American out of the Dub. Sounds like Burke's kind of player. Technically Treliving's call, but I suspect Burke is still pulling a lot of strings behind the scenes.
16. Edmonton - Ilya Samsonov, G - In one draft, Edmonton finally gets both their franchise player, and their franchise goalie. I would have worried they'd try to rush him and ruin him, but Chiarelli won't let that happen.
17. Winnipeg - Brock Boeser, RW - The Jets are loaded with potentially elite playmakers in Scheifele, Petan and Ehlers, now they need a pure goal-scorer to act as triggerman. Boeser is about as pure a goal scorer as there is in this draft.
18. Ottawa - Travis Konecny, C/RW - Our prospect pool is deep enough with top nine forwards, and we had some late picks pay off, so we can afford to swing for the park at least once. Konecny has elite gamebreaker potential, something we don't have much of at forward.
19. Detroit - Joel Eriksson Ek, C
20. Minnesota - Colin White, C
21. Buffalo - Jansen Harkins, C - They're pretty set for top line and top six forward prospects, now Tim Murray starts going for top nine forwards with versatility and winning pedigrees. Regardless what league, tournament or team, all this kid does is win championships. See: Curtis Lazar.
22. Washington - Oliver Kylington, D - Big drop for Kylington, but Washington loves to pick out of Europe in the first round, so I expect this is as far as he falls.
23. Vancouver - Nick Merkley, C/RW
24. Toronto - Jeremy Roy, D
25. Winnipeg - Brendan Carlo, D - Size is still the word of the day in Winnipeg. Add yet another 6'5 D to the blueline.
26. Montreal - Evgeni Svechnikov, RW
27. Anaheim - Jacob Larsson, D
28. Tampa Bay - Jakob Zboril, D
29. Philadelphia - Jake Debrusk, LW
30. Arizona - Daniel Sprong, RW
I made this mock draft about 75% based on my prospect rankings, and about 25% based on GM draft records. This was fairly difficult this year in particular, since there are so many new first-time GMs; in those cases I assumed that these GMs had a significant enough say in their previous jobs as assistant GMs that their draft records can be referenced efficaciously, albeit with a grain of salt.
1. Edmonton - Connor McDavid, C
2. Buffalo - Jack Eichel, C
3. Arizona - Dylan Strome, C - Already loaded with talent up front, but Arizona's prospect pool is largely lacking an elite Western Conference top line center. And Maloney rarely picks from anywhere but CHL in the first round.
4. Toronto - Mitch Marner, RW - Talk about draft history; Mark Hunter already drafted Marner once before, and it has paid off for the Knights in spades, although Hunter wasn't around long enough to see the dividends.
5. Carolina - Noah Hanifin, D - Hard to believe a player with Hanifin's upside could fall this far, but draft eligible 120 point scorers in the OHL usually go first or second overall. There is simply an absurd abundance of elite skilled forwards in this draft.
6. New Jersey - Zach Werenski, D - I had Crouse ranked ahead of Werenski, but Lamiorello loves to pick from college and USDP, and it's close enough that draft history takes the edge.
7. Philadelphia - Lawson Crouse, LW - A perfect fit for the Broadstreet Bullies should he actually fall this far.
8. Columbus - Pavel Zacha - C
9. San Jose - Ivan Provorov, D - I had him ranked sixth on my prospect list, but he falls slightly due to Russian factor. San Jose picks from all over the place in the first round.
10. Colorado - Matt Barzal, C - A lot of scouts think he could have been in Strome/Marner category had he been healthy all year. Joe Sakic might see a bit of himself in Barzal.
11. Florida - Mikko Rantanen, RW - Tallon picks from all over the place, but likely goes back to SM Liiga for the second time in three years for the skilled, rangy winger.
12. Dallas - Timo Meier, RW
13. L.A. - Thomas Chabot, D - We know Lombardi doesn't care much for conventional draft wisdom (see Wayne Simmonds, Kyle Clifford, Thomas Hickey). Chabot is a little off the.board here but he fits the direction LA is going; Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin: big, mobile, two-way defensemen.
14. Boston - Kyle Connor, LW/C
15. Calgary - Paul Bittner, LW - A big 6'5 American out of the Dub. Sounds like Burke's kind of player. Technically Treliving's call, but I suspect Burke is still pulling a lot of strings behind the scenes.
16. Edmonton - Ilya Samsonov, G - In one draft, Edmonton finally gets both their franchise player, and their franchise goalie. I would have worried they'd try to rush him and ruin him, but Chiarelli won't let that happen.
17. Winnipeg - Brock Boeser, RW - The Jets are loaded with potentially elite playmakers in Scheifele, Petan and Ehlers, now they need a pure goal-scorer to act as triggerman. Boeser is about as pure a goal scorer as there is in this draft.
18. Ottawa - Travis Konecny, C/RW - Our prospect pool is deep enough with top nine forwards, and we had some late picks pay off, so we can afford to swing for the park at least once. Konecny has elite gamebreaker potential, something we don't have much of at forward.
19. Detroit - Joel Eriksson Ek, C
20. Minnesota - Colin White, C
21. Buffalo - Jansen Harkins, C - They're pretty set for top line and top six forward prospects, now Tim Murray starts going for top nine forwards with versatility and winning pedigrees. Regardless what league, tournament or team, all this kid does is win championships. See: Curtis Lazar.
22. Washington - Oliver Kylington, D - Big drop for Kylington, but Washington loves to pick out of Europe in the first round, so I expect this is as far as he falls.
23. Vancouver - Nick Merkley, C/RW
24. Toronto - Jeremy Roy, D
25. Winnipeg - Brendan Carlo, D - Size is still the word of the day in Winnipeg. Add yet another 6'5 D to the blueline.
26. Montreal - Evgeni Svechnikov, RW
27. Anaheim - Jacob Larsson, D
28. Tampa Bay - Jakob Zboril, D
29. Philadelphia - Jake Debrusk, LW
30. Arizona - Daniel Sprong, RW
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