Looking ahead: future drafts

[matchesmalone]

So I've done my mock draft etc., done just about all the research into the 2015 draft I can do for now. So now time to start to look ahead into 2016, 2017 and 2018 drafts.

2016 looks like not much of a race so far. Auston Matthews is the clear cut, far away favorite for the first overall pick, with Jesse Puljujrvi, Max Jones, Jacob Chychrun and Mathew Tkachuk rounding out the top five. Slightly above average looking draft overall, but could be the best draft ever for USA hockey, led by Matthews, Jones, Tkachuk, Kieffer Bellows, Clayton Keller and Chad Krys. Aside from Chychrun and Krys, 2016 will be heavy with D, with Sean Day, Jake Bean, Dante Fabbro, Kale Clague and Luke Green all looking like legitimate top-15 options.

2017 is the most interesting for me, personally, because of the local factor. Overall, 2017 looks like a pretty average draft so far, but it is headlined by two Brandon Wheat King forwards. Being in Saskatoon, I usually get to see Brandon once or twice a year, but with this team they have going on, I'm going to be going to every possible game for the next couple years. D Ivan Provorov is a sure top ten pick this year. The aforementioned Kale Clague is a sure first rounder, at least, in 2016. Nolan Patrick, who was able to have already played junior thanks to a late '98 birthdate and won WHL rookie of the year, looks like an early candidate for the NHL first overall pick in 2017, but his teammate, Stelio Mattheos, who went first overall in the 2014 WHL bantam draft, will be strongly in the mix as well.

I'm not sure exactly what it is, but this seems to happen at least every other year, from Schenn and Glennie with Brandon in 2009, Hall and Fowler with Windsor in 2010, Yakupov and Galchenyuk with Sarnia in 2012, MacKinnon and Drouin in Halifax 2013, to McDavid and Strome with Eerie this year. In 2017, it is back to Brandon, where Patrick and Mattheos both look like strong bids to be at least top five picks. Also in the mix will be Russian/American forward Michael Pastujov and future OHL star forwards Gabriel Vilardi, Owen Tippet and Mathew Strome, as well as Swedish forward Elias Petersson. Should be a wide open draft - looks like no real runaway elite talent so far.

For 2018, Joseph Veleno was the first ever player granted exceptional player status to the QMJHL and will play as a 15 year old next year. Probably safe to say he's at least in contention for first overall. In the OHL, Late '99 birthdays David Levin and Ryan McLeod have high-end offensive talents and will be ones to watch closely leading up to 2018. I could name some more names and speculate wildly, but this early on, those are about the only three names I'm comfortable listing as likely top ten NHL picks... but then I was saying the same about Shane McColgan and Alex Forsberg three years prior to their drafts.

[Josh]

Wow, I've never even heard of most of these guys. Veleno looks like a really special player. I had taken a gander a couple months ago to see who was coming up, and I had a few names on a list that I really no nothing about other than point totals. What do you think of these guys?

2016: Alex DeBrincat

2017: Maxime Comtois

2018: T.J. Walsh and Alexander Zhabreyev

[matchesmalone]

DeBrincat is the only one I've seen play so far, and he looks like a star. 50+ goals as an OHL rookie, and there was only a handful of 50 goal-scorers in the whole CHL. But there are two major reasons for hesitation: a. he played the whole season with at least one or the other of Dylan Strome or Connor McDavid. In fact 21 of his goals came on the powerplay, where one can only imagine the kinds of looks he was getting on a regular basis playing with them both. But with no McDavid next year and likely no Strome either, he'll get a chance to show he can be the go-to guy leading up to his draft.

and b. Eliteprospects has him listed at 5'7. He's appearantly now more like 5'9, but as a late '97 birthday, he'll be 18 this fall, so there's no reason to think he'll grow much more, if any.

While I'd be shocked if he's not a first rounder, I suspect he'll end up being the biggest wildcard going in to the draft, and could go anywhere from top ten to 25.

The only other one I've heard of is T.J. Walsh, an American playing at Shattuck St. Mary's. He put up enormous numbers this year, but so have a lot of young players for that program, and while a few like Toews and Crosby went on to be some of the best players in the world, more went on to not even make the NHL. But for Walsh, the fact that Boston College, one of the top programs in the country has already accepted a commitment from him for 2018 (!), suggests to me that he's the real deal.

Since we're on the topic, there are only two others already commited to Div I schools for 2018: Walsh's teammate, Swedish forward Oliver Wahlgren (Maine) and American forward Jake Wise (BU). All three could have been on my original list, but I didn't wanna go into too much detail on 2018 since so much can change before then, and like I said, I've embarrassed myself before trying to look too far down the road, with McColgan and Alex Forsberg.

I hadn't heard of Comtois or Zhabreyev, but just looked them up and Comtois definitely does look like a possible top prospect. Zhabreyev put up crazy numbers against older competition, but right now EP has him listed at 5'5 and 128 lbs. I know he still has plenty of time, but he's got a lot of growing to do.

[Josh]

Tkachuk is off to a huge start. Alexander Nylander, never mentioned here yet, looks like he might figure in to the top-15 as well. 2016 is going to be another really solid class.

[matchesmalone]

So far I'm standing by my prediction in the original post: 2016 looks a little above average, maybe something in the range of the 2009 and 2010 drafts. 2017 is looking fairly weak, or at least as far as top-tier talent; could still end up being a good draft due to depth. And it's still early for 2018, but with names like Joseph Veleno, Ryan McLeod, David Levin, Jake Wise, J.T. Walsh and Oliver Wahlgren, it could well end up being another one of those very good, or even elite level draft classes.

[matchesmalone]

Oliver Wahlstrom. Not Wahlgren. And T.J. Walsh, not J.T. Well that's embarrassing.

But yeah Josh you're right, Nylander could be a high pick. And you mentioned DeBrincatt for 2016. Looks like he's still been doing it without McDavid or Strome.

[matchesmalone]

Do we still have our list of league rankings, or was that lost with the old forum? Because off the top of my head Swiss NLA would be about the sixth or seventh best league in the world (after NHL, KHL, SHL, AHL, SM Liiga, and maybe Czech Extraliiga) and Auston Matthews, despite missing the first three games, is fourth in NLA goal scoring with six goals (eight points) in eight games. Woah.

Can't forget Puljujärvi or Laine though. Six points in eleven and ten games, respectively, in a slightly better league.

[Josh]

Do we still have our list of league rankings, or was that lost with the old forum? Because off the top of my head Swiss NLA would be about the sixth or seventh best league in the world (after NHL, KHL, SHL, AHL, SM Liiga, and maybe Czech Extraliiga) and Auston Matthews, despite missing the first three games, is fourth in NLA goal scoring with six goals (eight points) in eight games. Woah.

Can't forget Puljujärvi or Laine though. Six points in eleven and ten games, respectively, in a slightly better league.

I kept your rankings on record. Here was your most recent list:

10 - NHL
8 - KHL
7 - Swedish Elitserien
6.5 - AHL
5.75 - Finnish SM-Liiga
5.5 - Swiss NLA, Czech Extraliga
5.25 - German DEL, Slovakian Extraliga
5 - Swedish Allsvenskan
4.5 - Finnish Mestis, ECHL
4.25 - German Bundesliga, Danish Superisligaen, WHL, OHL
4 - QMJHL, Swiss NLB

[matchesmalone]

Oh sweet dude! You're a godsend. Well like I said, SM Liiga is just a slightly better league than NLA.

Gonna have to make a few tweaks to the lower ranks though. I think I mentioned before, I kinda regret including junior leagues, but if they're going to be there, they might have to get bumped down a bit further even. Because we know NCAA is clearly quite superior to major junior, and yet there seems to be a slight learning curve for players going from NCAA to ECHL, yet I didn't really leave room for NCAA between major junior and ECHL.

[Josh]

Please do post an updated list. I have found the current one to be of tons of help, I really appreciate having it!