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POINT PROJECTIONS (TOP 75)

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  • POINT PROJECTIONS (TOP 75)

    I said I'd do a top-150 or top-200, but I'm only doing my top-75... So, here it goes:
    PLAYER TEAM GP GOALS ASSISTS POINTS
    SIDNEY CROSBY PIT 77 31 66 97
    TYLER SEGUIN DAL 81 44 47 91
    JOHN TAVARES NYI 82 38 51 89
    EVGENI MALKIN PIT 75 22 64 86
    JAMIE BENN DAL 77 37 48 85
    ALEXANDER OVECHKIN WSH 78 55 29 84
    PHIL KESSEL PIT 82 42 42 84
    CLAUDE GIROUX PHI 80 26 54 80
    JAKUB VORACEK PHI 82 21 58 79
    RYAN GETZLAF ANA 80 22 55 77
    VLADIMIR TARASENKO STL 79 38 39 77
    STEVEN STAMKOS TBL 82 44 33 77
    COREY PERRY ANA 77 37 38 75
    TAYLOR HALL EDM 77 37 37 74
    JOE PAVELSKI SJS 82 38 36 74
    TYLER JOHNSON TBL 78 25 49 74
    JORDAN EBERLE EDM 80 32 41 73
    RYAN JOHANSEN CBJ 82 33 38 71
    NICKLAS BACKSTROM WSH 75 20 51 71
    CONNOR MCDAVID EDM 82 21 49 70
    RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS EDM 79 17 52 69
    LOGAN COUTURE SJS 74 24 44 68
    JADEN SCHWARTZ STL 82 30 38 68
    ERIK KARLSSON OTT 82 20 48 68
    JASON SPEZZA DAL 79 18 49 67
    JONATHAN TOEWS CHI 78 28 39 67
    T.J. OSHIE STL 78 18 49 67
    ANZE KOPITAR LAK 82 19 47 66
    MAX PACIORETTY MTL 78 36 29 65
    JOHNNY GAUDREAU CGY 80 25 40 65
    DANIEL SEDIN VAN 81 21 44 65
    ZACH PARISE MIN 80 34 31 65
    RICK NASH NYR 80 40 25 65
    KYLE OKPOSO NYI 79 29 36 65
    MARK STONE OTT 82 23 42 65
    BRANDON SAAD CBJ 82 27 37 64
    NIKITA KUCHEROV TBL 82 33 31 64
    JIRI HUDLER CGY 81 26 37 63
    JOE THORNTON SJS 81 12 51 63
    JEFF CARTER LAK 82 29 34 63
    HENRIK SEDIN VAN 80 17 46 63
    FILIP FORSBERG NSH 80 27 36 63
    NICK FOLIGNO CBJ 77 24 39 63
    ONDREJ PALAT TBL 76 19 44 63
    PK SUBBAN MTL 82 17 45 62
    SEAN MONAHAN CGY 77 33 29 62
    PATRICK MARLEAU SJS 80 27 35 62
    MATT DUCHENE COL 80 27 35 62
    ALEXANDER STEEN STL 78 26 36 62
    PATRICK SHARP DAL 77 25 36 61
    MARK GIORDANO CGY 73 16 44 60
    DEREK STEPAN NYR 71 16 44 60
    ALEX GALCHENYUK MTL 81 23 36 59
    BLAKE WHEELER WPG 81 28 31 59
    MARKO DANO CHI 77 22 37 59
    DAVID BACKES STL 74 25 34 59
    MIKE RIBEIRO NSH 79 13 46 59
    TYLER ENNIS BUF 81 23 36 59
    KYLE TURRIS OTT 81 21 38 59
    BRENT BURNS SJS 81 15 43 58
    JOHN KLINGBERG DAL 77 14 44 58
    JASON POMINVILLE MIN 77 17 41 58
    ANDREW LADD WPG 82 26 32 58
    PATRICK KANE** CHI 63 23 35 58
    SCOTT HARTNELL CBJ 77 24 34 58
    HENRIK ZETTERBERG DET 70 19 39 58
    GUSTAV NYQUIST DET 81 26 32 58
    MARIAN HOSSA CHI 79 24 33 57
    DERRICK BRASSARD NYR 77 19 38 57
    JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK TOR 78 25 32 57
    TOMAS PLEKANEC MTL 82 20 36 56
    TYSON BARRIE COL 82 12 44 56
    WAYNE SIMMONDS PHI 81 29 27 56
    KRIS LETANG PIT 72 12 44 56
    ** Patrick Kane - status uncertain.

  • #2
    Nice, I can't say I really disagree with any of these. Solid list man. McDavid might be a bit ambitious but he's certainly got the skill.

    Comment


    • #3
      With McLellan as the coach and a Hall-McDavid duo (Yakupov or Purcell on the right side) I think he can do it if he's healthy. He has all the tools.

      I have Jack Eichel at 55 points (24-31-55).

      I have projections for every single team, so anyone wants to know about those, just post which team here.

      Comment


      • #4
        I just skimmed the list (I find point predictions impossible to do because of a million different things), but it looks pretty good. I find a lot of times, people expect some players (such as Kessel) to do a lot better than they end up doing, and I think you got yours right. I wouldn't be surprised to see Crosby crack 100 again, though. And from a Sens POV, I find your Karlsson/Turris/Ryan choices as interesting.

        Comment


        • #5
          I project Bobby Ryan at 52 points over 72 games (24-28-52).

          Comment


          • #6
            I'd definitely be curious to see your projections for the Sens.

            Comment


            • #7
              Truthfully I'd be interested in your projections for all teams.

              Comment


              • #8
                Here's the Eastern Conference Breakdown for now. Western Conference will follow, and then I'll try posting all my projections either tonight or over the weekend for each team.

                ************************************************** ************************************************** **********************************************

                MONTREAL CANADIENS

                - Project 2 60-point scorers, 5 50-point scorers.
                - Project 7 40-point scorers and 12 30-point scorers.
                - Project 4 defensemen to score at least 20 points and 3 defensemen to score at least 30 points.
                - Project 1 60-point defenseman and 1 40-point defenseman.
                - Project 1 30-goal scorer, 4 20-goal scorers, and 7 players with at least 15 goals.
                - Trending Up: Alex Galchenyuk (81-23-36-59). Alex Semin (72-19-24-43). Lars Eller (78-15-24-39).
                - Trending Down: David Desharnais (79-8-28-36). Tom Gilbert (62-2-11-13).
                - Stealing A Spot?: Sven Andrighetto (20-5-7-12).

                PROJECT GOAL OUTPUT: 234 goals (+13) (Last season: 221).

                TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

                - Project 2 70-point scorers, 4 60-point scorers, 6 50-point scorers.
                - Project 9 40-point scorers and 11 30-point scorers.
                - Project only 3 20-goal scorers despite projected GF output (11 double-digit goal scorers projected).
                - Project 3 defensemen with at least 35 points, 1 50-point defenseman and 1 40-point defenseman.
                - Rookie Watch: Vladislav Namestnikov (53-10-11-21)
                - Trending Up: Jonathan Drouin (75-10-40-50).
                - Stealing a Spot?: Nikita Nesterov (48-5-10-15).
                - Trending Down: Matt Carle (72-1-19-20).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 258 GF (-4) (Last season: 262 GF).

                BOSTON BRUINS

                - Project only 1 50-point scorer.
                - Project only 4 40-point scorers and 10 30-point scorers.
                - Only 2 20-goal scorers, and 7 players scoring 15 or more goals.
                - Only 1 30-point scoring defenseman.
                - Rookie Watch: David Pastrnak (79-19-16-35). Joe Morrow (59-3-22-25). Seth Griffith (59-8-9-17).
                - On The Decline?: Zdeno Chara (70-11-18-29).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 219 GF (+6) (Last season: 213 GF).

                OTTAWA SENATORS

                - Project 2 60-point scorers, 5 50-point scorers.
                - Project 7 40-point scorers and 9 30-point scorers.
                - Project 7 20-goal scorers.
                - Only 1 of 3 teams with a defenseman leading the team in scoring.
                - Project 2 defensemen with at least 30 points, 1 60-point defenseman.
                - Rookie Watch: Chris Wideman (58-4-19-23). Shane Price (44-8-11-19). Matt Puempel (46-7-8-15).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 238 GF (even) (Last season: 238 GF)

                DETROIT RED WINGS

                - Project 5 50-point scorers.
                - Project 7 40-point scorers and 10 30-point scorers.
                - Only 2 players projected for 20-goals, but 7 projected for 15 or higher.
                - Despite aging and injuries, Datsyuk projected for 52 points in 57 games, best PPG rate on team.
                - Project 2 defensemen with at least 40 points, 1 50-point defenseman.
                - Rookie Watch: Teemu Pulkkinen (72-19-12-31). Dylan Larkin (35-8-15-23).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 231 GF (-4) (Last season: 235 GF).

                FLORIDA PANTHERS

                - Project 4 50-point scorers.
                - Project 5 40-point scorers and 10 30-point scorers.
                - Project 2 30-point scoring defensemen, 1 40-point defenseman.
                - Rookie Watch: Rocco Grimaldi (46-7-10-17)
                - Contract Year: Brian Campbell (78-4-29-33).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 209 GF (+3) (Last season: 206 GF).


                TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

                - Project only 1 50-point scorer.
                - Project only 2 40-point scorers and only 6 30-point scorers.
                - Project 13 20-point scorers.
                - Only 1 30-point defenseman projected.
                - Only 1 20-goal scorer projected.
                - Can He Stay Healthy?: Joffrey Lupul (56-16-18-34).
                - The Kessel Factor?: Tyler Bozak (80-15-23-38).
                - On The Decline: P.A. Parenteau (53-9-12-21).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 191 GF (-20) (Last season: 211 GF).

                BUFFALO SABRES

                - Project 4 50-point scorers.
                - Project 6 40-point scorers and 9 30-point scorers.
                - Project 2 30-point defensemen.
                - Rookie Watch: Jack Eichel (82-24-31-55). Sam Reinhart (73-8-25-33). Johan Larsson (67-10-14-24).
                - The Eichel Factor?: Matt Moulson (76-21-24-45).
                - Trending Down: Brian Gionta (58-10-11-21).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 212 GF (+51) (Last season: 161 GF).

                NEW YORK ISLANDERS

                - Project 1 80-point scorer, 2 60-point scorers and 3 50-point scorers.
                - Project 7 40-point scorers and 9 30-point scorers.
                - Project 2 30-point defensemen.
                - Project 5 20-goal scorers - 1 30-goal scorer.
                - Contract Year: Kyle Okposo (79-29-36-65).
                - Trending Down: Mikhail Grabovski (57-7-17-24).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 247 GF (-5) (Last season: 252 GF).

                NEW YORK RANGERS

                - Project 2 60-point scorers, 6 50-point scorers.
                - Project 9 40-point scorers, 10 30-point scorers.
                - Project 2 30-point defensemen, 1 40-point defenseman.
                - Project 3 20-goal scorers, 8 players with 15 or more goals.
                - Trending Up: J.T. Miller (80-20-30-50). Kevin Hayes (82-18-25-43). Emerson Etem (81-18-22-40).
                - Trending Down: Dan Boyle (68-4-21-25).
                - Stealing a Spot?: Oscar Lindberg (21-4-4-8).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 246 GF (-6) (Last season: 252 GF).

                PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

                - Project 1 90-point scorer, 3 80-point scorers, 5 50-point scorers.
                - Project 8 40-point scorers, 12 30-point scorers.
                - Project 3 30-point defensemen, 2 40-point defensemen and 1 50-point defenseman.
                - Project 4 20-goal scorers and 7 players with 15 or more goals.
                - Rookie Watch: Derrick Pouliot (80-8-32-40). Sergei Plotnikov (76-13-18-31).
                - Declining Veteran: Chris Kunitz (73-16-21-37).
                - Staying Healthy?: Olli Maatta (71-7-27-34). Beau Bennett (68-14-17-31).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 266 GF (+45) (Last season: 221 GF)

                PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

                - Project 1 80-point scorer, 2 70-point scorers, 4 50-point scorers.
                - Project 6 40-point scorers, 11 30-point scorers.
                - Project 2 30-point defenseman, 1 40-point defenseman.
                - Project 5 20-goal scorers and 7 players with 15 or more goals.
                - Rookie Watch: Scott Laughton (67-12-20-32).
                - Trending Up: Sean Couturier (80-18-32-50).
                - Declining Veteran: R.J. Umberger (58-9-9-18). Vincent Lecavalier (31-4-5-9).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 242 GF (+27) (Last season: 215 GF).

                WASHINGTON CAPITALS

                - Project 1 80-point scorer, 2 70-point scorers, 3 60-point scorers and 5 50-point scorers.
                - Project 8 40-point scorers. Project 9 30-point scorers.
                - Project 2 30-point defensemen. Project 1 50-point defenseman.
                - Project 3 20-goal scorers and 7 with 15 or more goals.
                - Project 1 50-goal scorer.
                - Rookie Watch: Andre Burakovsky (80-16-25-41). Stanislav Galiev (53-5-12-17).
                - Declining Veteran: Brooks Laich (67-4-5-9).
                - Trending Up: Evgeny Kuznetsov (82-18-37-55).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 233 (-9) (Last season: 242 GF).

                NEW JERSEY DEVILS

                - Project only 2 40-point scorers and 7 30-point scorers.
                - Project 1 30-point defenseman. 4 20-point defensemen.
                - Project only 1 20-goal scorer and 4 with 15 or more goals.
                - Rookie Watch: Stefan Matteau (58-8-16-24). Reid Boucher (50-9-14-23). John Quenneville (41-4-11-15). Pavel Zacha (27-3-7-10).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 179 GF (-2) (Last season: 181).

                COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

                - Project 1 70-point scorer, 3 60-point scorers and 6 50-point scorers.
                - Project 9 40-point scorers and 10 30-point scorers.
                - Project 2 30-point defenseman and 1 40-point defenseman.
                - Project 2 other defenseman with more than 25 points.
                - 6 20-goal scorers. 3 players with 25 or more goals and 1 with 30+ goals.
                - Rookie Watch: Alexander Wennberg (81-12-36-48). Kerby Rychel (40-8-7-15). Sonny Milano (22-3-5-8).
                - Can He Stay Healthy?: Ryan Murray (70-5-23-28).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 250 GF (+14) (Last season: 236).

                CAROLINA HURRICANES

                - Project 2 50-point scorers.
                - Project 5 40-point scorers, 9 30-point scorers.
                - 2nd of 3 teams with defenseman leading team in scoring.
                - Project 2 30-point defensemen, 1 50-point defenseman.
                - Project only 2 20-goal scorers. Only 3 with 15 or more goals.
                - Rookie Watch: Noah Hanifin (79-4-20-24).
                - Can He Rebound?: Eric Staal (73-23-26-49).

                PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 185 GF (-3) (Last season: 188 GF).

                Comment


                • #9
                  WESTERN CONFERENCE



                  NASHVILLE PREDATORS

                  - Project 1 60-point scorer, 3 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 9 40-point scorers, 11 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 4 defenseman with 35 or more points. 1 40-point defenseman, 1 50-point defenseman.
                  - Project 5 20-goal scorers.
                  - Bounce Back?: Cody Hodgson (64-9-15-24).
                  - Trending Up: Calle Jarnkrok (75-11-23-34).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 232 GF (even) (Last season: 232 GF).

                  ST. LOUIS BLUES

                  - Project 1 70-point scorer, 3 60-point scorers, 7 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 10 40-point scorers, 11 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 2 40-point defensemen. 1 50-point defenseman.
                  - Project 2 20-point defensemen.
                  - Project 2 30-goal scorers. Project 5 20-goal scorers, 6 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Rookie Watch: Dmitrij Jaskin (73-19-22-41). Robby Fabbri (51-10-19-29). Petteri Lindbohm (70-5-19-24).
                  - Trending Up: Jaden Schwartz (82-30-38-68). Jori Lehtera (70-11-41-52).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 250 GF (+2) (Last season: 248 GF).

                  CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

                  - Project 1 60-point scorer, 7 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 8 40-point scorers, 10 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 2 30-point defenseman; 1 50-point defenseman.
                  - Project 1 player with more than 25 goals.
                  - Project 4 20-goal scorers and 8 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Rookie Watch: Marko Dano (73-22-37-59). Artemi Panarin (71-19-29-48). Trevor van Riemsdyk (61-3-16-19).
                  - Trending Up: Teuvo Terevainen (81-15-39-54).
                  - The Question Mark: Patrick Kane (63-23-35-58).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 241 GF (+12) (Last season: 229 GF).

                  WINNIPEG JETS

                  - Project 4 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 8 40-point scorers, 11 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 3 30-point defensemen; 2 40-point defensemen; 1 50-point defenseman.
                  - Project 5 20-goal scorers and 6 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Rookie Watch: Nikolaj Ehlers (70-12-22-34). Andrew Copp (56-4-8-12).
                  - In or Out?: Joel Armia (34-2-5-7).
                  - Breakout Candidate: Marc Scheifele (82-20-29-49).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 225 GF (-5) (Last season: 230 GF).

                  MINNESOTA WILD

                  - Project 1 60-point scorer; 3 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 5 40-point scorers; 10 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 2 30-point defensemen.
                  - Project 3 20-goal scorers; 1 30-goal scorer. 6 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Rookie Watch: Mathew Dumba (69-7-15-22). Mike Reilly (56-2-14-16). Tyler Groavac (33-5-8-13).
                  - Trending Up: Nino Niederreiter (76-25-20-45). Mikael Granlund (72-16-38-54). Jason Zucker (78-24-14-38).
                  - Trending Down: Thomas Vanek (68-16-29-45). Mikko Koivu (71-11-24-35).
                  - Breakout Candidate: Jonas Brodin (76-6-17-23).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 219 GF (-12) (Last season: 231 GF).

                  COLORADO AVALANCHE

                  - Project 1 60-point scorer; 6 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 8 40-point scorers; 10 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 2 30-point defensemen; 1 50-point defenseman.
                  - Project 4 20-goal scorers; 7 with 15 or more goals.
                  - No Longer a Sophomore: Nathan MacKinnon (81-19-36-55).
                  - Rookie Watch: Joey Hishon (66-9-20-29).
                  - Finding Their Groove: Brandon Gormley (55-4-18-22). Mikhail Grigorenko (71-17-26-43).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 238 GF (+19) (Last season: 219 GF).

                  DALLAS STARS

                  - Project 1 90-point scorer; 2 80-point scorers; 4 60-point scorers; 5 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 6 40-point scorers; 10 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 2 30-point defensemen; 1 50-point defenseman.
                  - Project 3 20-goal scorers; 2 30-goal scorers; 1 40-goal scorer. 7 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Defending The Title: Jamie Benn (77-37-48-85).
                  - A New Weapon: Patrick Sharp (75-25-36-61).
                  - Sophomore Slump?: John Klingberg (77-14-44-58).
                  - Staying Healthy?: Valeri Nichushkin (61-19-29-48).
                  - Trending Up: Brett Ritchie (59-15-16-31).
                  - Trending Down: Ales Hemsky (66-12-24-36).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 263 (+2) (Last Season: 261).

                  ANAHEIM DUCKS

                  - Project 2 70-point scorers; 3 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 4 40-point scorers; 10 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 3 30-point defensemen; 1 more with over 25 points.
                  - Project 4 20-goal scorers; 6 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Rebounding: Ryan Getzlaf (80-22-55-77), Corey Perry (77-37-38-75), Ryan Kesler (79-25-29-54).
                  - Trending Up: Hampus Lindholm (80-8-31-39), Patrick Maroon (68-9-30-39).
                  - Making an Impact?: Jiri Sekac (51-6-9-15).
                  - Stealing a Spot: Max Friberg (29-7-7-14).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 232 GF (-4) (Last season: 236 GF).

                  VANCOUVER CANUCKS

                  - Project 2 60-point scorers; 3 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 3 40-point scorers; Only 6 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 4 20-point defensemen; no 30-point defensemen.
                  - Project 2 20-goal scorers; 1 30-goal scorer. 5 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Sophomore Watch: Bo Horvat (82-12-18-30).
                  - Can He Breakout?: Sven Bartschi (47-9-10-19).
                  - Trending Down: Alexandre Burrows (63-11-14-25), Brandon Prust (52-3-6-9).
                  - Rookie Watch: Jake Virtanen (25-3-5-8).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 193 GF (-49) (Last season: 242 GF).

                  LOS ANGELES KINGS

                  - Project 2 60-point scorers; 4 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 6 40-point scorers; 9 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 3 30-point defensemen; 1 40-point defenseman.
                  - Project 5 20-goal scorers; 6 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Change of Scenery: Milan Lucic (77-26-26-52).
                  - Contract Year: Anze Kopitar (82-19-47-66).
                  - Sophomores: Tyler Toffoli (79-22-27-49), Tanner Pearson (76-21-18-39).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 225 GF (+5) (Last season: 220 GF).

                  SAN JOSE SHARKS

                  - Project 1 70-point scorer; 4 60-point scorers; 5 50-point scorers.
                  - Project 7 40-point scorers; 12 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 2 30-point defensemen; 1 50-point defenseman.
                  - Project 3 20-goal scorers; 8 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Rookie Watch: Chris Tierney (74-13-22-35), Melker Karlsson (79-11-23-34).
                  - Healthy?: Raffi Torres (57-5-11-16).
                  - Stealing a Spot: Joonas Donskoi (17-2-6-8), Barclay Goodrow (24-3-5-8).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 241 GF (+13) (Last season: 228 GF).

                  CALGARY FLAMES

                  - Project 4 60-point scorers; 5 50-point scorers
                  - Project 8 40-point scorers; 13 30-point scorers.
                  - Only team with 4 40-point defensemen. Project 5 30-point defensemen.
                  - Project 1 50-point defenseman and 1 60-point defenseman.
                  - Project 3 20-goal scorers; 1 30-goal scorer. 5 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Star Studded Defense: Mark Giordano (73-16-44-60), Dougie Hamilton (77-12-38-50), Dennis Wideman (80-12-31-43), T.J. Brodie (79-7-35-42).
                  - Rookie Watch: Sam Bennett (71-14-30-44).
                  - Trending Down: Mason Raymond (48-7-7-14).
                  - Sophomore Sensation?: Johnny Gaudreau (80-25-40-65).

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 241 GF (even) (Last season: 241 GF).

                  ARIZONA COYOTES

                  - Project 2 40-point scorers; 6 30-point scorers.
                  - 3rd of 3 teams with defenseman as leading scorer.
                  - Project 1 40-point defenseman; 1 25-point defenseman.
                  - Project 2 20-goal scorers; 4 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Carrying the Team: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (74-22-24-46).
                  - Rookie Watch: Max Domi (67-10-21-31), Anthony Duclair (44-6-16-22), Stefan Elliot (48-4-12-16)
                  - Trade Bait?: Mikkel Boedker (71-22-23-45)
                  - Trending Up: Tobias Rieder (78-14-16-30), Michael Stone (76-5-20-25)
                  - Trending Down: Shane Doan (58-13-10-23), Zbynek Michalek (64-2-10-12)

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 172 GF (+2) (Last season: 170 GF)

                  EDMONTON OILERS

                  - Project 3 70-point scorers; 4 60-point scorers.
                  - Project 5 40-point scorers; 9 30-point scorers.
                  - Project 2 30-point defensemen.
                  - Project 2 30-goal scorers; 4 20-goal scorers. 6 with 15 or more goals.
                  - Rookie Sensation: Connor McDavid (82-21-49-70)
                  - Bouncing Back?: Nail Yakupov (75-22-27-49)
                  - Trending Up: Justin Schultz (75-8-29-37), Andrej Sekera (80-6-32-38)
                  - Stealing a Spot?: Leon Draisaitl (37-5-14-19), Darnell Nurse (24-2-7-9)

                  PROJECTED GOAL OUTPUT: 231 GF (+33) (Last season: 198 GF).

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Clearly, my boldest prediction is a major Vancouver Canucks decline.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Dean Ambrose View Post
                      Clearly, my boldest prediction is a major Vancouver Canucks decline.
                      Actually, it's a major Buffalo Sabres incline. What method did you use for these projections? It must have been a lot of work!

                      This would have made a great CMS article. I really need to get around to building the whole front page of this site.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Well, Buffalo was just so bad last year. 161 GF... you really have to try to get that number. They actually have a legitimate top-6 now. I don't expect them to make the playoffs, because their LD position is pretty weak and Lehner is unproven as a starter, but I think they have enough offensive talent to produce at that clip.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Ooo, this sounds fun. Count me in. Won't be nearly as detailed as yours, but I'll do a top 50 at least.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Rayzor, I find you have too many players staying stationary, at least as far as young players. For me, I can't remember a year with so many grade A prime breakout candidates: high picks and highly regarded prospects, entering third or fourth full season, gradual improvemment over each of those seasons, aged around 23 or 24, just hitting that all-important 200 game mark. Yet you have hardly anyone really breaking out.

                            For me, first and foremost those two pairs of players I've already talked about in the standings predictions thread, Nyquist, Tatar, Schwartz, Tarasenko are all in for enormous breakouts. Yes, I said Tarasenko breakout.

                            But other prime candidates include Zibanejad, Galchenyuk, Saad, Kreider, Scheifele, Brock Nelson, Silfverberg, Monahan, Huberdeau, Bjugstad, Palat, Tyler Johnson.

                            Out of those, I'm not too sold on Scheifele, Palat or Monahan. Scheifele because I think he's a fourth year breakout, not third. I do see him as becoming a dominant player in the league, but the Jets see him as a future Getzlaf/Kopitar/Thornton type big center, and I just don't think he's there yet physically. Actually sort of the same thing goes for Bjugstad and Nelson. All three will have mini-breakouts this year before major fourth years.

                            Monahan because I don't think his linemates will be there. Calgary will take a bit of a step back altogether, but in particular there is no way Hudler repeats last year at age 32, and Gaudreau will sophomore slump, so Monahan will stay about stationary.

                            Palat I just don't see as developing much further. Reminds me of Hornqvist in the sense of a late round pick who came in to the league and got off to a great start but didn't really have any room to grow from there.

                            Galchenyuk will breakout, but how big will depend how well and how quickly he can adjust to the move to center full time.

                            Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Kreider, Huberdeau, Saad and Johnson, on the other hand, you can bank on. Maybe throw Toffoli and Brayden Schenn in the mix.

                            Anyway, I'll have my list by tomorrow. Hoping to do a top 100, but likely end up being 75.
                            Last edited by matchesmalone; 10-07-2015, 01:55 AM.

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                            • #15
                              OK, here it is. A couple disclaimers first. I realize that only 19 players broke 70 points last year. Only 53 broke 60. etc. And I have more players breaking those 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 point plateaus than have the past few years. Three reasons for this:

                              a. The addition of 3 on 3 overtime will mean less games going to shootouts, where scoring doesn't count, and will mean a slight increase in overall GPG across the league. And since 3 on 3 will require teams will shorten their benches drastically for overtime, and will involve an emphasis on skill players, where will those extra 5-10 goals and 15-20 assists per team come from? from the tops of the lineups, which will mean a slight boost in from the top 100 or so scorers across the league.

                              b. There was a string of really good draft classes from 2008-2010. Most of the players from 2008 are already well into their primes, but a lot of players from those 2009 and 2010 drafts (which weren't quite as good as 2008, but above average nonetheless) are just now 23, 24 or 25, i.e. just hitting their primes (some of them should have last year, but their developments were slowed by the shortened season in 2013). Then after fairly mediocre draft classes in 2011 and 2012, players from an elite 2013 draft are already becoming impact players at just 20. So yes, I really do believe there will be an influx of players with the ability to push those milestone numbers, and not enough aging players declining to offset that (although see: Marleau, Ribeiro, Plekanec, Iginla and Tanguay).

                              c. Although I tried to account for players already with injuries, and tried to predict minor injuries for players who tend to miss those games to bumps and bruises, the major injuries that require surgeries and/or significant time missed are completely random and unpredictable, so it would be silly to try. So yes, there will inevitably be at least five or six guys on this list who will miss 20+ games and hence fall way down the list or off it completely.

                              Now without further ado,


                              Player GP G A P
                              1 Tyler Seguin 80 41 61 102
                              2 John Tavares 81 45 52 97
                              3 Sidney Crosby 70 33 60 93
                              4 Jamie Benn 77 38 51 89
                              5 Alex Ovechkin 78 52 36 88
                              6 Steven Stamkos 82 55 32 87
                              7 Vladimir Tarasenko 80 39 45 84
                              8 Evgeni Malkin 74 30 52 82
                              9 Erik Karlsson 82 26 54 80
                              10 Ryan Johansen 80 33 45 78
                              11 Claude Giroux 76 27 51 78
                              12 Nikita Kucherov 78 31 46 77
                              13 Patrick Kane 72 32 44 76
                              14 Tyler Johnson 77 28 48 76
                              15 Jaden Schwartz 82 29 46 75
                              16 Jakub Voracek 82 24 50 74
                              17 Ryan Getzlaf 75 22 52 74
                              18 Gustav Nyquist 79 30 43 73
                              19 Corey Perry 76 35 37 72
                              20 Mark Stone 80 27 45 72
                              21 Connor McDavid 78 25 47 72
                              22 Nicklas Backstrom 71 20 52 72
                              23 Tomas Tatar 82 34 36 70
                              24 Ryan Strome 81 26 44 70
                              25 Nick Foligno 73 29 40 69
                              26 Phil Kessel 81 34 34 68
                              27 Bobby Ryan 80 32 36 68
                              28 Joe Pavelski 82 31 37 68
                              29 Filip Forsberg 75 28 39 67
                              30 Kyle Okposo 74 27 40 67
                              31 Ondrej Palat 80 20 47 67
                              32 Sean Monahan 82 29 37 66
                              33 Brandon Saad 80 26 40 66
                              34 Nathan McKinnon 80 29 36 65
                              35 Jack Eichel 82 28 37 65
                              36 Anze Kopitar 80 21 44 65
                              37 Evander Kane 74 33 31 64
                              38 Mika Zibanejad 80 27 37 64
                              39 P.K. Subban 79 24 40 64
                              40 Rick Nash 80 32 31 63
                              41 Max Pacioretty 77 30 33 63
                              42 Jonathan Toews 82 28 35 63
                              43 Jonathan Huberdeau 76 22 41 63
                              44 Zach Parise 81 28 34 62
                              45 Jordan Eberle 68 23 39 62
                              46 Kevin Shattenkirk 78 19 43 62
                              47 Henrik Zetterberg 74 18 44 62
                              48 Joe Thornton 80 15 47 62
                              49 Taylor Hall 66 28 33 61
                              50 Matt Duchene 79 26 35 61
                              51 Alex Galchenyuk 82 25 36 61
                              52 Alex Steen 78 24 37 61
                              53 Daniel Sedin 80 20 41 61
                              54 Ryan Nugent Hopkins 76 21 40 61
                              55 Roman Josi 82 17 44 61
                              56 Blake Wheeler 78 25 35 60
                              57 Kyle Turris 79 24 36 60
                              58 T.J. Oshie 82 22 38 60
                              59 Jason Spezza 75 20 40 60
                              60 Dustin Byfuglien 77 19 41 60
                              61 Logan Couture 71 28 31 59
                              62 Gabriel Landeskog 68 25 34 59
                              63 Mark Scheifele 81 22 37 59
                              64 Jonathan Drouin 80 17 42 59
                              65 Tyler Toffoli 80 27 31 58
                              66 Andrew Ladd 78 25 33 58
                              67 Derek Stepan 76 20 38 58
                              68 James Neal 71 28 29 57
                              69 Jeff Carter 74 27 30 57
                              70 Chris Kreider 79 27 30 57
                              71 Nick Bjugstad 82 26 31 57
                              72 Brent Burns 78 23 34 57
                              73 Justin Faulk 77 22 35 57
                              74 Henrik Sedin 75 15 42 57
                              75 Eric Staal 79 26 30 56
                              76 Patrick Sharp 80 25 31 56
                              77 Pavel Datsyuk 63 23 33 56
                              78 Mike Green 81 18 38 56
                              79 John Klingberg 82 16 40 56
                              80 Radim Vrbata 76 25 30 55
                              81 Brock Nelson 80 24 31 55
                              82 Johnny Gaudreau 75 23 32 55
                              83 David Krejci 73 17 40 55
                              84 Elias Lindholm 78 24 30 54
                              85 Brayden Schenn 76 23 31 54
                              86 Marian Hossa 74 25 28 53
                              87 Jiri Hudler 71 22 31 53
                              88 Ryan O'Reilly 82 22 31 53
                              89 Nikolai Ehlers 79 20 33 53
                              90 Patrice Bergeron 78 21 31 52
                              91 Paul Stastny 82 19 33 52
                              92 Jakob Silfverberg 76 23 28 51
                              93 Mats Zuccarello 80 18 33 51
                              94 Tyson Barrie 77 17 34 51
                              95 Victor Hedman 75 12 39 51
                              96 David Pastrnak 81 21 29 50
                              97 Sami Vatanen 79 14 36 50
                              98 Ryan Kesler 75 22 27 49
                              99 Evgeni Kuznetsov 82 21 26 49
                              100 John Carlson 82 15 34 49

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