POINT PROJECTIONS (TOP 75)

[Josh]

I did do that, but I couldn't copy it to occupy all the boxes in the table so I ended up typing them out from my Excel sheet.

Wow, that must have taken forever. I'll work on improving the table functionality.

[Dean Ambrose]

Ah, ok. Yes I knew about the feature, I just thought you would have built your list in Excel or somewhere external and the copied it here.

I did do that, but I couldn't copy it to occupy all the boxes in the table so I ended up typing them out from my Excel sheet.

[Josh]

Yeah that's good enough for me. Thanks Josh.

But wow, I keep looking over this list, and I can't even express how happy I am with it. I really think A LOT of these predictions are going to end up being pretty damn close to real life.

And yeah Josh... Ehlers.

Think I'll be vindicated if he really does score more points than Bergeron (drafted before Ehlers)?

[Josh]

You have a table feature on this forum lol. I typed them into the table.

Ah, ok. Yes I knew about the feature, I just thought you would have built your list in Excel or somewhere external and the copied it here.

[matchesmalone]

Yeah that's good enough for me. Thanks Josh.

But wow, I keep looking over this list, and I can't even express how happy I am with it. I really think A LOT of these predictions are going to end up being pretty damn close to real life.

And yeah Josh... Ehlers.

[Dean Ambrose]

Matches, I was able to get yours looking a bit nicer by pasting the table into Word and then copying into here, but I still don't know how Mike (Rayzor, lol) did his.

Mike, did you actually plug in all the names and numbers into here, or did you copy from somewhere else?

You have a table feature on this forum lol. I typed them into the table.

[Josh]

Matches, I was able to get yours looking a bit nicer by pasting the table into Word and then copying into here, but I still don't know how Mike (Rayzor, lol) did his.

Mike, did you actually plug in all the names and numbers into here, or did you copy from somewhere else?

[Dean Ambrose]

Hm, that was a nice Excell spreadsheet. How did you get yours to look so nice?

I used the table format on these boards.

[matchesmalone]

Hm, that was a nice Excell spreadsheet. How did you get yours to look so nice?

[Dean Ambrose]

After watching pre-season I'd happily change projections for younger players, especially the one I've seen the most - Galchenyuk. 65 points at least for Chucky, imo.

[matchesmalone]

OK, here it is. A couple disclaimers first. I realize that only 19 players broke 70 points last year. Only 53 broke 60. etc. And I have more players breaking those 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 point plateaus than have the past few years. Three reasons for this:

a. The addition of 3 on 3 overtime will mean less games going to shootouts, where scoring doesn't count, and will mean a slight increase in overall GPG across the league. And since 3 on 3 will require teams will shorten their benches drastically for overtime, and will involve an emphasis on skill players, where will those extra 5-10 goals and 15-20 assists per team come from? from the tops of the lineups, which will mean a slight boost in from the top 100 or so scorers across the league.

b. There was a string of really good draft classes from 2008-2010. Most of the players from 2008 are already well into their primes, but a lot of players from those 2009 and 2010 drafts (which weren't quite as good as 2008, but above average nonetheless) are just now 23, 24 or 25, i.e. just hitting their primes (some of them should have last year, but their developments were slowed by the shortened season in 2013). Then after fairly mediocre draft classes in 2011 and 2012, players from an elite 2013 draft are already becoming impact players at just 20. So yes, I really do believe there will be an influx of players with the ability to push those milestone numbers, and not enough aging players declining to offset that (although see: Marleau, Ribeiro, Plekanec, Iginla and Tanguay).

c. Although I tried to account for players already with injuries, and tried to predict minor injuries for players who tend to miss those games to bumps and bruises, the major injuries that require surgeries and/or significant time missed are completely random and unpredictable, so it would be silly to try. So yes, there will inevitably be at least five or six guys on this list who will miss 20+ games and hence fall way down the list or off it completely.

Now without further ado,

	Player	GP	G	A	P
1	Tyler Seguin	80	41	61	102
2	John Tavares	81	45	52	97
3	Sidney Crosby	70	33	60	93
4	Jamie Benn	77	38	51	89
5	Alex Ovechkin	78	52	36	88
6	Steven Stamkos	82	55	32	87
7	Vladimir Tarasenko	80	39	45	84
8	Evgeni Malkin	74	30	52	82
9	Erik Karlsson	82	26	54	80
10	Ryan Johansen	80	33	45	78
11	Claude Giroux	76	27	51	78
12	Nikita Kucherov	78	31	46	77
13	Patrick Kane	72	32	44	76
14	Tyler Johnson	77	28	48	76
15	Jaden Schwartz	82	29	46	75
16	Jakub Voracek	82	24	50	74
17	Ryan Getzlaf	75	22	52	74
18	Gustav Nyquist	79	30	43	73
19	Corey Perry	76	35	37	72
20	Mark Stone	80	27	45	72
21	Connor McDavid	78	25	47	72
22	Nicklas Backstrom	71	20	52	72
23	Tomas Tatar	82	34	36	70
24	Ryan Strome	81	26	44	70
25	Nick Foligno	73	29	40	69
26	Phil Kessel	81	34	34	68
27	Bobby Ryan	80	32	36	68
28	Joe Pavelski	82	31	37	68
29	Filip Forsberg	75	28	39	67
30	Kyle Okposo	74	27	40	67
31	Ondrej Palat	80	20	47	67
32	Sean Monahan	82	29	37	66
33	Brandon Saad	80	26	40	66
34	Nathan McKinnon	80	29	36	65
35	Jack Eichel	82	28	37	65
36	Anze Kopitar	80	21	44	65
37	Evander Kane	74	33	31	64
38	Mika Zibanejad	80	27	37	64
39	P.K. Subban	79	24	40	64
40	Rick Nash	80	32	31	63
41	Max Pacioretty	77	30	33	63
42	Jonathan Toews	82	28	35	63
43	Jonathan Huberdeau	76	22	41	63
44	Zach Parise	81	28	34	62
45	Jordan Eberle	68	23	39	62
46	Kevin Shattenkirk	78	19	43	62
47	Henrik Zetterberg	74	18	44	62
48	Joe Thornton	80	15	47	62
49	Taylor Hall	66	28	33	61
50	Matt Duchene	79	26	35	61
51	Alex Galchenyuk	82	25	36	61
52	Alex Steen	78	24	37	61
53	Daniel Sedin	80	20	41	61
54	Ryan Nugent Hopkins	76	21	40	61
55	Roman Josi	82	17	44	61
56	Blake Wheeler	78	25	35	60
57	Kyle Turris	79	24	36	60
58	T.J. Oshie	82	22	38	60
59	Jason Spezza	75	20	40	60
60	Dustin Byfuglien	77	19	41	60
61	Logan Couture	71	28	31	59
62	Gabriel Landeskog	68	25	34	59
63	Mark Scheifele	81	22	37	59
64	Jonathan Drouin	80	17	42	59
65	Tyler Toffoli	80	27	31	58
66	Andrew Ladd	78	25	33	58
67	Derek Stepan	76	20	38	58
68	James Neal	71	28	29	57
69	Jeff Carter	74	27	30	57
70	Chris Kreider	79	27	30	57
71	Nick Bjugstad	82	26	31	57
72	Brent Burns	78	23	34	57
73	Justin Faulk	77	22	35	57
74	Henrik Sedin	75	15	42	57
75	Eric Staal	79	26	30	56
76	Patrick Sharp	80	25	31	56
77	Pavel Datsyuk	63	23	33	56
78	Mike Green	81	18	38	56
79	John Klingberg	82	16	40	56
80	Radim Vrbata	76	25	30	55
81	Brock Nelson	80	24	31	55
82	Johnny Gaudreau	75	23	32	55
83	David Krejci	73	17	40	55
84	Elias Lindholm	78	24	30	54
85	Brayden Schenn	76	23	31	54
86	Marian Hossa	74	25	28	53
87	Jiri Hudler	71	22	31	53
88	Ryan O'Reilly	82	22	31	53
89	Nikolai Ehlers	79	20	33	53
90	Patrice Bergeron	78	21	31	52
91	Paul Stastny	82	19	33	52
92	Jakob Silfverberg	76	23	28	51
93	Mats Zuccarello	80	18	33	51
94	Tyson Barrie	77	17	34	51
95	Victor Hedman	75	12	39	51
96	David Pastrnak	81	21	29	50
97	Sami Vatanen	79	14	36	50
98	Ryan Kesler	75	22	27	49
99	Evgeni Kuznetsov	82	21	26	49
100	John Carlson	82	15	34	49

[matchesmalone]

Rayzor, I find you have too many players staying stationary, at least as far as young players. For me, I can't remember a year with so many grade A prime breakout candidates: high picks and highly regarded prospects, entering third or fourth full season, gradual improvemment over each of those seasons, aged around 23 or 24, just hitting that all-important 200 game mark. Yet you have hardly anyone really breaking out.

For me, first and foremost those two pairs of players I've already talked about in the standings predictions thread, Nyquist, Tatar, Schwartz, Tarasenko are all in for enormous breakouts. Yes, I said Tarasenko breakout.

But other prime candidates include Zibanejad, Galchenyuk, Saad, Kreider, Scheifele, Brock Nelson, Silfverberg, Monahan, Huberdeau, Bjugstad, Palat, Tyler Johnson.

Out of those, I'm not too sold on Scheifele, Palat or Monahan. Scheifele because I think he's a fourth year breakout, not third. I do see him as becoming a dominant player in the league, but the Jets see him as a future Getzlaf/Kopitar/Thornton type big center, and I just don't think he's there yet physically. Actually sort of the same thing goes for Bjugstad and Nelson. All three will have mini-breakouts this year before major fourth years.

Monahan because I don't think his linemates will be there. Calgary will take a bit of a step back altogether, but in particular there is no way Hudler repeats last year at age 32, and Gaudreau will sophomore slump, so Monahan will stay about stationary.

Palat I just don't see as developing much further. Reminds me of Hornqvist in the sense of a late round pick who came in to the league and got off to a great start but didn't really have any room to grow from there.

Galchenyuk will breakout, but how big will depend how well and how quickly he can adjust to the move to center full time.

Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Kreider, Huberdeau, Saad and Johnson, on the other hand, you can bank on. Maybe throw Toffoli and Brayden Schenn in the mix.

Anyway, I'll have my list by tomorrow. Hoping to do a top 100, but likely end up being 75.

[matchesmalone]

Ooo, this sounds fun. Count me in. Won't be nearly as detailed as yours, but I'll do a top 50 at least.

[Dean Ambrose]

Well, Buffalo was just so bad last year. 161 GF... you really have to try to get that number. They actually have a legitimate top-6 now. I don't expect them to make the playoffs, because their LD position is pretty weak and Lehner is unproven as a starter, but I think they have enough offensive talent to produce at that clip.

[Josh]

Clearly, my boldest prediction is a major Vancouver Canucks decline.

Actually, it's a major Buffalo Sabres incline. What method did you use for these projections? It must have been a lot of work!

This would have made a great CMS article. I really need to get around to building the whole front page of this site.