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POINT PROJECTIONS (TOP 75)

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  • Josh
    replied
    Originally posted by Dean Ambrose View Post
    I did do that, but I couldn't copy it to occupy all the boxes in the table so I ended up typing them out from my Excel sheet.
    Wow, that must have taken forever. I'll work on improving the table functionality.

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  • Dean Ambrose
    replied
    Originally posted by Josh View Post

    Ah, ok. Yes I knew about the feature, I just thought you would have built your list in Excel or somewhere external and the copied it here.
    I did do that, but I couldn't copy it to occupy all the boxes in the table so I ended up typing them out from my Excel sheet.

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  • Josh
    replied
    Originally posted by matchesmalone View Post
    Yeah that's good enough for me. Thanks Josh.

    But wow, I keep looking over this list, and I can't even express how happy I am with it. I really think A LOT of these predictions are going to end up being pretty damn close to real life.

    And yeah Josh... Ehlers.
    Think I'll be vindicated if he really does score more points than Bergeron (drafted before Ehlers)?

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    Originally posted by Dean Ambrose View Post
    You have a table feature on this forum lol. I typed them into the table.
    Ah, ok. Yes I knew about the feature, I just thought you would have built your list in Excel or somewhere external and the copied it here.

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  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Yeah that's good enough for me. Thanks Josh.

    But wow, I keep looking over this list, and I can't even express how happy I am with it. I really think A LOT of these predictions are going to end up being pretty damn close to real life.

    And yeah Josh... Ehlers.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dean Ambrose
    replied
    Originally posted by Josh View Post
    Matches, I was able to get yours looking a bit nicer by pasting the table into Word and then copying into here, but I still don't know how Mike (Rayzor, lol) did his.

    Mike, did you actually plug in all the names and numbers into here, or did you copy from somewhere else?
    You have a table feature on this forum lol. I typed them into the table.

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  • Josh
    replied
    Matches, I was able to get yours looking a bit nicer by pasting the table into Word and then copying into here, but I still don't know how Mike (Rayzor, lol) did his.

    Mike, did you actually plug in all the names and numbers into here, or did you copy from somewhere else?

    Leave a comment:


  • Dean Ambrose
    replied
    Originally posted by matchesmalone View Post
    Hm, that was a nice Excell spreadsheet. How did you get yours to look so nice?
    I used the table format on these boards.

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  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Hm, that was a nice Excell spreadsheet. How did you get yours to look so nice?

    Leave a comment:


  • Dean Ambrose
    replied
    After watching pre-season I'd happily change projections for younger players, especially the one I've seen the most - Galchenyuk. 65 points at least for Chucky, imo.

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  • matchesmalone
    replied
    OK, here it is. A couple disclaimers first. I realize that only 19 players broke 70 points last year. Only 53 broke 60. etc. And I have more players breaking those 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 point plateaus than have the past few years. Three reasons for this:

    a. The addition of 3 on 3 overtime will mean less games going to shootouts, where scoring doesn't count, and will mean a slight increase in overall GPG across the league. And since 3 on 3 will require teams will shorten their benches drastically for overtime, and will involve an emphasis on skill players, where will those extra 5-10 goals and 15-20 assists per team come from? from the tops of the lineups, which will mean a slight boost in from the top 100 or so scorers across the league.

    b. There was a string of really good draft classes from 2008-2010. Most of the players from 2008 are already well into their primes, but a lot of players from those 2009 and 2010 drafts (which weren't quite as good as 2008, but above average nonetheless) are just now 23, 24 or 25, i.e. just hitting their primes (some of them should have last year, but their developments were slowed by the shortened season in 2013). Then after fairly mediocre draft classes in 2011 and 2012, players from an elite 2013 draft are already becoming impact players at just 20. So yes, I really do believe there will be an influx of players with the ability to push those milestone numbers, and not enough aging players declining to offset that (although see: Marleau, Ribeiro, Plekanec, Iginla and Tanguay).

    c. Although I tried to account for players already with injuries, and tried to predict minor injuries for players who tend to miss those games to bumps and bruises, the major injuries that require surgeries and/or significant time missed are completely random and unpredictable, so it would be silly to try. So yes, there will inevitably be at least five or six guys on this list who will miss 20+ games and hence fall way down the list or off it completely.

    Now without further ado,


    Player GP G A P
    1 Tyler Seguin 80 41 61 102
    2 John Tavares 81 45 52 97
    3 Sidney Crosby 70 33 60 93
    4 Jamie Benn 77 38 51 89
    5 Alex Ovechkin 78 52 36 88
    6 Steven Stamkos 82 55 32 87
    7 Vladimir Tarasenko 80 39 45 84
    8 Evgeni Malkin 74 30 52 82
    9 Erik Karlsson 82 26 54 80
    10 Ryan Johansen 80 33 45 78
    11 Claude Giroux 76 27 51 78
    12 Nikita Kucherov 78 31 46 77
    13 Patrick Kane 72 32 44 76
    14 Tyler Johnson 77 28 48 76
    15 Jaden Schwartz 82 29 46 75
    16 Jakub Voracek 82 24 50 74
    17 Ryan Getzlaf 75 22 52 74
    18 Gustav Nyquist 79 30 43 73
    19 Corey Perry 76 35 37 72
    20 Mark Stone 80 27 45 72
    21 Connor McDavid 78 25 47 72
    22 Nicklas Backstrom 71 20 52 72
    23 Tomas Tatar 82 34 36 70
    24 Ryan Strome 81 26 44 70
    25 Nick Foligno 73 29 40 69
    26 Phil Kessel 81 34 34 68
    27 Bobby Ryan 80 32 36 68
    28 Joe Pavelski 82 31 37 68
    29 Filip Forsberg 75 28 39 67
    30 Kyle Okposo 74 27 40 67
    31 Ondrej Palat 80 20 47 67
    32 Sean Monahan 82 29 37 66
    33 Brandon Saad 80 26 40 66
    34 Nathan McKinnon 80 29 36 65
    35 Jack Eichel 82 28 37 65
    36 Anze Kopitar 80 21 44 65
    37 Evander Kane 74 33 31 64
    38 Mika Zibanejad 80 27 37 64
    39 P.K. Subban 79 24 40 64
    40 Rick Nash 80 32 31 63
    41 Max Pacioretty 77 30 33 63
    42 Jonathan Toews 82 28 35 63
    43 Jonathan Huberdeau 76 22 41 63
    44 Zach Parise 81 28 34 62
    45 Jordan Eberle 68 23 39 62
    46 Kevin Shattenkirk 78 19 43 62
    47 Henrik Zetterberg 74 18 44 62
    48 Joe Thornton 80 15 47 62
    49 Taylor Hall 66 28 33 61
    50 Matt Duchene 79 26 35 61
    51 Alex Galchenyuk 82 25 36 61
    52 Alex Steen 78 24 37 61
    53 Daniel Sedin 80 20 41 61
    54 Ryan Nugent Hopkins 76 21 40 61
    55 Roman Josi 82 17 44 61
    56 Blake Wheeler 78 25 35 60
    57 Kyle Turris 79 24 36 60
    58 T.J. Oshie 82 22 38 60
    59 Jason Spezza 75 20 40 60
    60 Dustin Byfuglien 77 19 41 60
    61 Logan Couture 71 28 31 59
    62 Gabriel Landeskog 68 25 34 59
    63 Mark Scheifele 81 22 37 59
    64 Jonathan Drouin 80 17 42 59
    65 Tyler Toffoli 80 27 31 58
    66 Andrew Ladd 78 25 33 58
    67 Derek Stepan 76 20 38 58
    68 James Neal 71 28 29 57
    69 Jeff Carter 74 27 30 57
    70 Chris Kreider 79 27 30 57
    71 Nick Bjugstad 82 26 31 57
    72 Brent Burns 78 23 34 57
    73 Justin Faulk 77 22 35 57
    74 Henrik Sedin 75 15 42 57
    75 Eric Staal 79 26 30 56
    76 Patrick Sharp 80 25 31 56
    77 Pavel Datsyuk 63 23 33 56
    78 Mike Green 81 18 38 56
    79 John Klingberg 82 16 40 56
    80 Radim Vrbata 76 25 30 55
    81 Brock Nelson 80 24 31 55
    82 Johnny Gaudreau 75 23 32 55
    83 David Krejci 73 17 40 55
    84 Elias Lindholm 78 24 30 54
    85 Brayden Schenn 76 23 31 54
    86 Marian Hossa 74 25 28 53
    87 Jiri Hudler 71 22 31 53
    88 Ryan O'Reilly 82 22 31 53
    89 Nikolai Ehlers 79 20 33 53
    90 Patrice Bergeron 78 21 31 52
    91 Paul Stastny 82 19 33 52
    92 Jakob Silfverberg 76 23 28 51
    93 Mats Zuccarello 80 18 33 51
    94 Tyson Barrie 77 17 34 51
    95 Victor Hedman 75 12 39 51
    96 David Pastrnak 81 21 29 50
    97 Sami Vatanen 79 14 36 50
    98 Ryan Kesler 75 22 27 49
    99 Evgeni Kuznetsov 82 21 26 49
    100 John Carlson 82 15 34 49

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  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Rayzor, I find you have too many players staying stationary, at least as far as young players. For me, I can't remember a year with so many grade A prime breakout candidates: high picks and highly regarded prospects, entering third or fourth full season, gradual improvemment over each of those seasons, aged around 23 or 24, just hitting that all-important 200 game mark. Yet you have hardly anyone really breaking out.

    For me, first and foremost those two pairs of players I've already talked about in the standings predictions thread, Nyquist, Tatar, Schwartz, Tarasenko are all in for enormous breakouts. Yes, I said Tarasenko breakout.

    But other prime candidates include Zibanejad, Galchenyuk, Saad, Kreider, Scheifele, Brock Nelson, Silfverberg, Monahan, Huberdeau, Bjugstad, Palat, Tyler Johnson.

    Out of those, I'm not too sold on Scheifele, Palat or Monahan. Scheifele because I think he's a fourth year breakout, not third. I do see him as becoming a dominant player in the league, but the Jets see him as a future Getzlaf/Kopitar/Thornton type big center, and I just don't think he's there yet physically. Actually sort of the same thing goes for Bjugstad and Nelson. All three will have mini-breakouts this year before major fourth years.

    Monahan because I don't think his linemates will be there. Calgary will take a bit of a step back altogether, but in particular there is no way Hudler repeats last year at age 32, and Gaudreau will sophomore slump, so Monahan will stay about stationary.

    Palat I just don't see as developing much further. Reminds me of Hornqvist in the sense of a late round pick who came in to the league and got off to a great start but didn't really have any room to grow from there.

    Galchenyuk will breakout, but how big will depend how well and how quickly he can adjust to the move to center full time.

    Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Kreider, Huberdeau, Saad and Johnson, on the other hand, you can bank on. Maybe throw Toffoli and Brayden Schenn in the mix.

    Anyway, I'll have my list by tomorrow. Hoping to do a top 100, but likely end up being 75.
    Last edited by matchesmalone; 10-07-2015, 01:55 AM.

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  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Ooo, this sounds fun. Count me in. Won't be nearly as detailed as yours, but I'll do a top 50 at least.

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  • Dean Ambrose
    replied
    Well, Buffalo was just so bad last year. 161 GF... you really have to try to get that number. They actually have a legitimate top-6 now. I don't expect them to make the playoffs, because their LD position is pretty weak and Lehner is unproven as a starter, but I think they have enough offensive talent to produce at that clip.

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  • Josh
    replied
    Originally posted by Dean Ambrose View Post
    Clearly, my boldest prediction is a major Vancouver Canucks decline.
    Actually, it's a major Buffalo Sabres incline. What method did you use for these projections? It must have been a lot of work!

    This would have made a great CMS article. I really need to get around to building the whole front page of this site.

    Leave a comment:

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