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Erik Karlsson: Once-in-a-generation player

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  • Erik Karlsson: Once-in-a-generation player

    Check out this Sportsnet article: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/e...ration-player/

    It breaks down how rare a player like Karlsson is, and it's extremely rare. Basically, after adjusting scoring based on the era, Karlsson produces at the third highest rate of all time from the blue line (behind Orr and Coffey). Don't forget, Coffey also played with Wayne Gretzky during his 215 point season. Karlsson has also contributed on 39.6% of team goals this season. That's the highest percentage from a defenseman ever. The next closest is Bobby Orr at 34.8%. A huge difference. Also using the z-score to evaluate team offensive skill, Karlsson clocks in with the second worst supporting cast on the list.

    Basically, Karlsson is well on his way to being regarded as one of the best defensemen ever. Only 8 defensemen have ever won the Norris three times, and all of them are in the Hall of Fame. Karlsson will win his third this year at the age of 26. All of the other 8 are sitting comfortably in the Hall of Fame.

    Karlsson is also likely to get a Hart nomination, although he likely won't win it or stand a chance to win it unless the Sens make the playoffs. And although there might be some bias, I think he does deserve it over Kane. Kane has had a great season, but what Karlsson is doing, happens once every 30 years.

    And the sad part about all of this, is it looks like the Sens are wasting these seasons with Karlsson

  • #2
    Originally posted by Alfie11 View Post
    Check out this Sportsnet article: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/e...ration-player/

    It breaks down how rare a player like Karlsson is, and it's extremely rare. Basically, after adjusting scoring based on the era, Karlsson produces at the third highest rate of all time from the blue line (behind Orr and Coffey). Don't forget, Coffey also played with Wayne Gretzky during his 215 point season. Karlsson has also contributed on 39.6% of team goals this season. That's the highest percentage from a defenseman ever. The next closest is Bobby Orr at 34.8%. A huge difference. Also using the z-score to evaluate team offensive skill, Karlsson clocks in with the second worst supporting cast on the list.

    Basically, Karlsson is well on his way to being regarded as one of the best defensemen ever. Only 8 defensemen have ever won the Norris three times, and all of them are in the Hall of Fame. Karlsson will win his third this year at the age of 26. All of the other 8 are sitting comfortably in the Hall of Fame.

    Karlsson is also likely to get a Hart nomination, although he likely won't win it or stand a chance to win it unless the Sens make the playoffs. And although there might be some bias, I think he does deserve it over Kane. Kane has had a great season, but what Karlsson is doing, happens once every 30 years.

    And the sad part about all of this, is it looks like the Sens are wasting these seasons with Karlsson
    It's truly incredible how dominant he is. It would be a real shame if he wasn't able to win it all with the Sens. He is going to be considered one of the top-three offensive defensemen of all time with Coffey and Orr.

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    • #3
      If I hear one more person complain about how the Senators are wasting Karlsson's prime I'm going to smash this monitor and not care cos it's office property. He's only 25-years-old. CALM DOWN. He's under contract until the end of the decade. And yes the team will pay 12M future space dollars annually to retain him. Look back at major individual award winners over the past 15 years and tell me how many won the cup the same year. It's a short fucking list. Tim Thomas is the only one that comes to mind with the exception of perennial champs like Lidstrom and Brodeur. I get that you want him to win a cup and yes I want him to win it in Ottawa but that RARELY happens to players in this era. Think of guys like Ray Bourque, Teemu Selanne, Brett Hull, Luc Robitaille, and Dominic Hasek who had insane individual seasons and then won championships "after their prime." Erik Karlsson would be welcome on that list because this is the modern NHL and the 80s are OVER. I love Karlsson and I love the Sens and I want to see the man hoist the cup playing in my city but management can't will things into happening like that. If Karlsson ends up on a list with Paul Kariya, Marcel Dionne, and Daniel fucking Alfredsson I won't blame Bryan Murray.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by thedaigle1 View Post
        If I hear one more person complain about how the Senators are wasting Karlsson's prime I'm going to smash this monitor and not care cos it's office property. He's only 25-years-old. CALM DOWN. He's under contract until the end of the decade. And yes the team will pay 12M future space dollars annually to retain him. Look back at major individual award winners over the past 15 years and tell me how many won the cup the same year. It's a short fucking list. Tim Thomas is the only one that comes to mind with the exception of perennial champs like Lidstrom and Brodeur. I get that you want him to win a cup and yes I want him to win it in Ottawa but that RARELY happens to players in this era. Think of guys like Ray Bourque, Teemu Selanne, Brett Hull, Luc Robitaille, and Dominic Hasek who had insane individual seasons and then won championships "after their prime." Erik Karlsson would be welcome on that list because this is the modern NHL and the 80s are OVER. I love Karlsson and I love the Sens and I want to see the man hoist the cup playing in my city but management can't will things into happening like that. If Karlsson ends up on a list with Paul Kariya, Marcel Dionne, and Daniel fucking Alfredsson I won't blame Bryan Murray.
        I see where you're coming from. I didn't like that Methot was the only option as his partner, but I think the Phaneuf acquisition changed that. You're right that management can't just will things into happening.. but as a Sens-fan first, I feel lucky to have Karlsson on the team and can't assume that we'll have another like him anytime soon. I think, for fans like me, the worry is more - if we don't win a Cup with him, how the hell will we win one without him?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Josh View Post
          I think, for fans like me, the worry is more - if we don't win a Cup with him, how the hell will we win one without him?
          I agree wholeheartedly. I'd hazard that Ottawa's "window" opens up next year and then the clock is already ticking.

          I certainly don't want to imply that I absolve management cos they still have a lot of work to do if they actually want to contend with this core and we're already on the wrong side of the hill with guys like Anderson and MacArthur. Then you factor in the bad years of the Ryan and Phaneuf contracts ahead and the inevitable departures of future UFA's and things get grim rather quickly. All that being said, Karlsson will still be a stud in this city for a few more years and he'll have Stone and Hoffman and Zibanejad and Turris for that span.

          Just remember that you don't have to worry as much as Rangers fans with Lundqvist or Habs fans with Price or Sharks, Wild, Blues, Predators, or Islanders fans in general. Of course the white whale is Ovie in DC if they can't make it happen this season. Imagine wasting that guy's prime.

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          • #6
            As an Ottawa fan I feel extremely lucky that we went from having peak-Alfredsson almost straight into having peak-Karlsson. Erik Karlsson is a generational talent. He's scoring huge amounts of points of course, his passing is almost perfect and, if it's even possible, his shot is underrated. But I personally love how his defensive game is not a liability any more. He skates like no one else. He even now throws great hits - not highlight Andy Sutton "obliterated" hits but just really solid hits that say "hey, you're not getting past me". And even if you did, he'd likely catch you on the back check anyway.

            Well Ottawa fans know how delicate a "window" is. 10 years ago this team had a window, and we got close that one year in Anaheim, but a lot of things need to go right. It's still a shame that Alfie never lifted that Stanley Cup - no one deserved it more. But the sad truth (and, really, the beauty as well) of sports is that no one gets a guarantee. No one is bigger than the game itself, or the series, or the season.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by thedaigle1 View Post
              If I hear one more person complain about how the Senators are wasting Karlsson's prime I'm going to smash this monitor and not care cos it's office property. He's only 25-years-old. CALM DOWN. He's under contract until the end of the decade. And yes the team will pay 12M future space dollars annually to retain him. Look back at major individual award winners over the past 15 years and tell me how many won the cup the same year. It's a short fucking list. Tim Thomas is the only one that comes to mind with the exception of perennial champs like Lidstrom and Brodeur. I get that you want him to win a cup and yes I want him to win it in Ottawa but that RARELY happens to players in this era. Think of guys like Ray Bourque, Teemu Selanne, Brett Hull, Luc Robitaille, and Dominic Hasek who had insane individual seasons and then won championships "after their prime." Erik Karlsson would be welcome on that list because this is the modern NHL and the 80s are OVER. I love Karlsson and I love the Sens and I want to see the man hoist the cup playing in my city but management can't will things into happening like that. If Karlsson ends up on a list with Paul Kariya, Marcel Dionne, and Daniel fucking Alfredsson I won't blame Bryan Murray.
              It's not so much that we haven't done anything yet or may not in the future. But the next few years we have a generation talent on the backend locked up at $6.5M. And the team has no real plan or direction in the future. We have a young team, but we seem to have a perennial bubble team, and the management seems fine with squeaking into the playoffs and winning a couple games.

              Comment


              • #8
                So I guess tmy next question is what would you guys like to see the organization do to seriously change this pattern (budget and cap in mind)?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by thedaigle1 View Post
                  So I guess tmy next question is what would you guys like to see the organization do to seriously change this pattern (budget and cap in mind)?
                  Get Stamkos and Drouin out of Tampa.. :bowl:

                  Honestly though, I'm not really sure. This team is good on paper. Real good.

                  Maybe they just need some more time to put it all together.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Mind you, I'm actually half-serious about making a run for Stamkos. As has been noted, a #1C is currently a need (and no, Spezza wouldn;t have been that guy). But Turris seems to be regressing and Zibanejad stagnating. Naturally, the hope is that Zibanejad takes things to the next level and allows Turris to gracefully become one of the league's best 2nd line centres, but that just doesn't seem to be happening.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Josh View Post
                      Mind you, I'm actually half-serious about making a run for Stamkos. As has been noted, a #1C is currently a need (and no, Spezza wouldn;t have been that guy). But Turris seems to be regressing and Zibanejad stagnating. Naturally, the hope is that Zibanejad takes things to the next level and allows Turris to gracefully become one of the league's best 2nd line centres, but that just doesn't seem to be happening.
                      It is a great idea. How do you you free up the funds needed though?

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by thedaigle1 View Post
                        It is a great idea. How do you you free up the funds needed though?
                        By my calculations, we need about $3M cleared if we were to add him this year, and about $8.5M cleared for next year. Allowing Neil, Chiasson, and Dzingel to walk frees up about $3.5M, sending Zibanejad back brings that up to $6.75M.. I guess then you make a decision on Mac/Hoffman.. of course, if Mac never recovers then there's no issue finding the space.

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                        • #13
                          I don't think Stamkos would be particularly interested in being a Senator long term, especially not before seeing free agent offers. Murray has said a number of times he won't rent. I don't think there's any chance he's coming to Ottawa. Still, nice to dream.

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