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**Jasmine** · 10-30-2016, 10:54 PM

4/6 pts , 2 shutouts - Id say this was a great little rd trip. :-)

**Josh** · 10-30-2016, 11:04 PM

Agreed. The Sens should really be looking for all 4 points coming up VS Carolina and Vancouver though.

**Matt the Aussie** · 10-31-2016, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by Josh

Agreed. The Sens should really be looking for all 4 points coming up VS Carolina and Vancouver though.

Dude, do you even follow the Sens? Expecting a win vs. Carolina? Do pigs fly yet? lol

**thedaigle1** · 10-31-2016, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by Matt the Aussie

Dude, do you even follow the Sens? Expecting a win vs. Carolina? Do pigs fly yet? lol

Maybe Boucher can break the Carolina curse?

Nice to see Ottawa has a couple dates with Buffalo coming up. Probably a good time to play a struggling Nashville team and a Quick-less LA.

**Jasmine** · 11-05-2016, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by Matt the Aussie

Dude, do you even follow the Sens? Expecting a win vs. Carolina? Do pigs fly yet? lol

So did you see any pigs flying in your area? I didn't see any flying but there is a huge one running for Prez in the US loll

**Josh** · 11-05-2016, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by Jasmine

So did you see any pigs flying in your area? I didn't see any flying but there is a huge one running for Prez in the US loll

I can't believe we didn't have an election thread! We do now: http://forum.highonhockey.com/forum/...lection-thread

**Josh** · 11-13-2016, 08:06 PM

Well, we finish the third set with 19 points - 1 over the 18 needed to remain on-track to meet the 6 points every 5 games threshold.

**Josh** · 11-22-2016, 07:40 AM

Sens need 3 points in their next 2 games vs Montreal and Boston - two teams who are both pretty hot right now.

**Jasmine** · 11-27-2016, 08:38 PM

4 huge wins in a row!

**Matt the Aussie** · 11-28-2016, 01:01 PM

We have 3 more home games this week (Buffalo, Philly, Florida) before the California road trip. Would love to bank as many points now as possible.

**Josh** · 12-11-2016, 07:32 PM

Absolutely need to beat the Sharks again on Wednesday. At home this time.

**Josh** · 12-22-2016, 09:23 PM

Sens are now at 43 points with 1 game remaining on a set that they need only 42 points at the end of to remain on track :)

**Jasmine** · 12-22-2016, 09:29 PM

Great to be on a roll, now they rest for a few days...and then hopefully, they pick up where they left off when they head to MSG

**thedaigle1** · 01-17-2017, 08:27 AM

So based on the 6/10 model that sets 98 points as the cut, Ottawa is a bit off the pace. However, current projections for the Atlantic division have the cut around 92 points and I predict a photo finish for Ottawa as a result. My best estimated guess after 41 games is 92 points for Ottawa. Here’'s how I got this number:
48+5+39
Ottawa already has 48 points in the bank (44 real points and 4 loser points). I project Ottawa to lose slightly more games in the back half and I predicted an odd number of winner points so I’m rounding the loser points up to five for the latter part of the season. The remaining 39 are a bit more of a process.
I have Ottawa netting 22 points on the road (11 road wins) and 17 home points (8.5 home wins yeah I know fractions and stuff). I came by these numbers using an average of two Pythagorean win-loss equations (one with goals and one with shots). I did separate equations for home and road because there are pronounced differences for Ottawa through the first 41 and Ottawa has more road games ahead than home games. I will take this opportunity to disclaim that I have not adjusted for restedness or quality of competition. There are a myriad of variables such as injuries, trades, and the aforementioned schedule that can change everything drastically and I acknowledge this limitation to my projection.
Here are the road and home equations:
(2.64*16)^1.81/((2.64*16)^1.81+(2.40*16)^1.81)=54%
(30.16*16)^1.81/((30.16*16)^1.81+(30.28*16)^1.81)=50%
52%*32=17
(2.44*25)^1.81/((2.44*25)^1.81+(2.94*25)^1.81)=42%
(26.88*25)^1.81/((26.88*25)^1.81+(30.31*25)^1.81)=45%
43%*50=22
These as you can see are straight up win-loss percentages hence the wild guessing for loser points. For those who are curious, here'’s where the numbers came from:
(Home goals for per game*remaining home games)^1.81/((Home goals for per game*remaining home games)^1.81+(Home goals against per game*remaining home games)^1.81=Remaining home goals for %
(Home shots for per game*remaining home games)^1.81/((Home shots for per game*remaining home games)^1.81+(Home shots against per game*remaining home games)^1.81=Remaining home shots for %
Average of two home percentages*remaining home points on table
(Road goals for per game*remaining road games)^1.81/((Road goals for per game*remaining road games)^1.81+(Road goals against per game*remaining road games)^1.81=Remaining road goals for %
(Road shots for per game*remaining road games)^1.81/((Road shots for per game*remaining road games)^1.81+(Road shots against per game*remaining road games)^1.81=Remaining road shots for %
Average of two road percentages*remaining road points on table
In terms of further regression, a purist would argue that Corsi would better compensate for luck factors and I could certainly compare Corsi projections against what I’ve written above. Ottawa blocks a lot of shots under The System and that skews things slightly. Ottawa over the course of the season hasn’t ridden a ridiculous shooting percentage or relied on superhuman goaltending so I haven’t felt the need to consider luck factors too much. Ottawa’s GF% at home gets a 2% boost over SF% but on the road it takes a 2% hit so it looks like these things have been cancelling each other out so far and I predict that trend will continue for the sake of this exercise.

EDIT: I forgot to mention special teams. Those are probably important too.

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