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6 points every 5 games

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  • 6 points every 5 games

    October

    12-Vs Leafs +2
    15- Vs Habs +2

    17- @ Wings 0
    18- Vs Yotes +2
    22- Vs Bolts 0
    ______________
    Total 6 Pts

    25- @ Canucks +2
    28- @ Flames 0
    30- @ Oilers +2

    November

    1- Vs Canes +2
    3- Vs Canucks +2

    ______________
    Total 14 Pts

    5- Vs Sabres 0
    8- @ Preds 0
    9- @ Sabres +2
    11- Vs Kings +2

    13- Vs Wild +1
    ______________
    Total 19 Pts

    15- @ Flyers +2
    17- Vs Preds 0
    19- Vs Cats 0
    22- @ Habs +2
    24- Vs Bruins +2

    _______________
    Total 25 Pts

    26- Vs Canes +2
    27- @ NYR +2
    29- Vs Sabres 0

    December

    1- Vs Flyers +1
    3- Vs Cats +2
    _______________
    Total 32 Pts

    5- @ Pens 0
    7- @ Sharks +2
    10- @ Kings 0
    11- @ Ducks 0
    14- Vs Sharks +1
    _______________
    Total 35 Pts

    17- Vs Devils +2
    18- @ NYI +2
    20- @ Hawks +2
    22- Vs Ducks +2

    27- @ NYR 0
    _______________
    Total 43 Pts

    29- Vs Wings +1

    January

    1- @ Caps 0
    7- Vs Caps 0
    8- Vs Oilers +2
    12- Vs Pens +2

    _______________
    Total 48 Pts

    14- Vs Leafs 0
    17- @ Blues +2
    19- @ CBJ +2
    21- @ Leafs +2

    22- Vs CBJ +1
    _______________
    Total 55 Pts

    24- Vs Caps +2
    26- Vs Flames +1
    31- @ Cats 0

    February

    2- @ Bolts +2
    4- @ Sabres 0
    _______________
    Total 60 Pts

    7- Vs Blues 0
    9- Vs Stars +2
    11- Vs NYI +2

    14- Vs Sabres 0
    16- @ Devils +2
    ________________
    Total 66 Pts

    18- @ Leafs +2
    19- Vs Jets 0
    21- @ Devils +2
    24- @ Canes 0
    26- @ Cats +2
    _______________
    Total 72 Pts

    27 - @ Bolts 0

    March

    2- Vs Avs +2
    4- Vs CBJ +2
    6- Vs Bruins + 2

    8- @ Stars +2
    _______________
    Total 80 Pts

    9- @ Yotes +2
    11- @ Avs +2

    14- Vs Bolts
    16- Vs Hawks
    18- Vs Habs
    ________________
    Total

    19- @ Habs
    Last edited by Jasmine; 03-12-2017, 09:03 AM.

  • #2
    4/6 pts , 2 shutouts - Id say this was a great little rd trip. :-)

    Comment


    • #3
      Agreed. The Sens should really be looking for all 4 points coming up VS Carolina and Vancouver though.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Josh View Post
        Agreed. The Sens should really be looking for all 4 points coming up VS Carolina and Vancouver though.
        Dude, do you even follow the Sens? Expecting a win vs. Carolina? Do pigs fly yet? lol

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Matt the Aussie View Post
          Dude, do you even follow the Sens? Expecting a win vs. Carolina? Do pigs fly yet? lol
          Maybe Boucher can break the Carolina curse?

          Nice to see Ottawa has a couple dates with Buffalo coming up. Probably a good time to play a struggling Nashville team and a Quick-less LA.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Matt the Aussie View Post

            Dude, do you even follow the Sens? Expecting a win vs. Carolina? Do pigs fly yet? lol
            So did you see any pigs flying in your area? I didn't see any flying but there is a huge one running for Prez in the US loll

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Jasmine

              So did you see any pigs flying in your area? I didn't see any flying but there is a huge one running for Prez in the US loll
              I can't believe we didn't have an election thread! We do now: http://forum.highonhockey.com/forum/...lection-thread

              Comment


              • #8
                Well, we finish the third set with 19 points - 1 over the 18 needed to remain on-track to meet the 6 points every 5 games threshold.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Sens need 3 points in their next 2 games vs Montreal and Boston - two teams who are both pretty hot right now.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    4 huge wins in a row!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      We have 3 more home games this week (Buffalo, Philly, Florida) before the California road trip. Would love to bank as many points now as possible.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Absolutely need to beat the Sharks again on Wednesday. At home this time.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Sens are now at 43 points with 1 game remaining on a set that they need only 42 points at the end of to remain on track :)

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Great to be on a roll, now they rest for a few days...and then hopefully, they pick up where they left off when they head to MSG

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              So based on the 6/10 model that sets 98 points as the cut, Ottawa is a bit off the pace. However, current projections for the Atlantic division have the cut around 92 points and I predict a photo finish for Ottawa as a result. My best estimated guess after 41 games is 92 points for Ottawa. Here’'s how I got this number:
                              48+5+39
                              Ottawa already has 48 points in the bank (44 real points and 4 loser points). I project Ottawa to lose slightly more games in the back half and I predicted an odd number of winner points so I’m rounding the loser points up to five for the latter part of the season. The remaining 39 are a bit more of a process.
                              I have Ottawa netting 22 points on the road (11 road wins) and 17 home points (8.5 home wins yeah I know fractions and stuff). I came by these numbers using an average of two Pythagorean win-loss equations (one with goals and one with shots). I did separate equations for home and road because there are pronounced differences for Ottawa through the first 41 and Ottawa has more road games ahead than home games. I will take this opportunity to disclaim that I have not adjusted for restedness or quality of competition. There are a myriad of variables such as injuries, trades, and the aforementioned schedule that can change everything drastically and I acknowledge this limitation to my projection.
                              Here are the road and home equations:
                              (2.64*16)^1.81/((2.64*16)^1.81+(2.40*16)^1.81)=54%
                              (30.16*16)^1.81/((30.16*16)^1.81+(30.28*16)^1.81)=50%
                              52%*32=17
                              (2.44*25)^1.81/((2.44*25)^1.81+(2.94*25)^1.81)=42%
                              (26.88*25)^1.81/((26.88*25)^1.81+(30.31*25)^1.81)=45%
                              43%*50=22
                              These as you can see are straight up win-loss percentages hence the wild guessing for loser points. For those who are curious, here'’s where the numbers came from:
                              (Home goals for per game*remaining home games)^1.81/((Home goals for per game*remaining home games)^1.81+(Home goals against per game*remaining home games)^1.81=Remaining home goals for %
                              (Home shots for per game*remaining home games)^1.81/((Home shots for per game*remaining home games)^1.81+(Home shots against per game*remaining home games)^1.81=Remaining home shots for %
                              Average of two home percentages*remaining home points on table
                              (Road goals for per game*remaining road games)^1.81/((Road goals for per game*remaining road games)^1.81+(Road goals against per game*remaining road games)^1.81=Remaining road goals for %
                              (Road shots for per game*remaining road games)^1.81/((Road shots for per game*remaining road games)^1.81+(Road shots against per game*remaining road games)^1.81=Remaining road shots for %
                              Average of two road percentages*remaining road points on table
                              In terms of further regression, a purist would argue that Corsi would better compensate for luck factors and I could certainly compare Corsi projections against what I’ve written above. Ottawa blocks a lot of shots under The System and that skews things slightly. Ottawa over the course of the season hasn’t ridden a ridiculous shooting percentage or relied on superhuman goaltending so I haven’t felt the need to consider luck factors too much. Ottawa’s GF% at home gets a 2% boost over SF% but on the road it takes a 2% hit so it looks like these things have been cancelling each other out so far and I predict that trend will continue for the sake of this exercise.

                              EDIT: I forgot to mention special teams. Those are probably important too.
                              Last edited by thedaigle1; 01-17-2017, 10:08 AM.

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