Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Stretch Drive

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Alfie11
    replied
    I've been kinda busy so I haven't had time to update this.

    Since there's around 8 games left for every team, I'm going to change it up to the magic number formula. Basically, the Sens magic number to finish in a certain spot means that every point gained by the Sens/lost by the competing team lowers it until they clinch that particular spot.

    The Sens magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 9. The most amount of points the NYI could reach, if they win out, is 98. The Sens are currently at 90 points, although NYI would have a chance to beat them on the tiebreaker, so that's why it's at 9.

    The Sens magic number for home ice advantage is 12. The most points the #3 seed in the Atlantic division can finish with is 101 points, and that's Toronto. We're at 90 points currently, so 12 points is the maximum we'd need.

    Here's each of the remaining schedules:

    OTTAWA

    @ Flyers
    @ Wild
    @ Jets
    @ Red Wings
    vs Red Wings
    @ Bruins
    vs Rangers
    @ Islanders

    NEW YORK ISLANDERS

    vs Predators
    @ Flyers
    vs Devils
    @ Sabres
    @ Predators
    @ Hurricanes
    @ Devils
    vs Senators

    TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

    vs Panthers
    @ Predators
    @ Red Wings
    @ Sabres
    vs Capitals
    vs Lightning
    vs Penguins
    vs Blue Jackets

    Leave a comment:


  • Alfie11
    replied
    5-9-1 gets us to 95 points

    Sens pass Montreal for first in the division.

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    I wouldn't mind facing Boston, Columbus, or the Rangers.

    Leave a comment:


  • Alfie11
    replied
    Originally posted by Matt the Aussie View Post
    Well, not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but if we do win the division, I'd much prefer to face the Rangers over Pittsburgh. The Penguins have games in hand but the gap is only 2 points.
    Playing Pittsburgh would suck as it would require (likely) going through both Pittsburgh and Washington to get to the Cup Final. Plus, I'm getting a little tired of the same teams in the playoffs.

    Leave a comment:


  • Matt the Aussie
    replied
    Well, not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but if we do win the division, I'd much prefer to face the Rangers over Pittsburgh. The Penguins have games in hand but the gap is only 2 points.

    Leave a comment:


  • Alfie11
    replied
    Originally posted by Josh View Post
    Habs lost last night. Ottawa has 2 games in hand and are only 2 points back!
    I'm pretty sure Ottawa and Montreal's battle for first in the Atlantic will come down to the games between the two. They'll likely be within 3-4 points of each other at the end of the season.

    I'm probably in the minority, but I'd rather win the division and play whoever from the Metro division. I mean, yeah, we could play Boston and have an easier time. But I'd rather guaranteed home ice through the first two rounds and the best regular season possible. We'll have to play tough teams eventually.

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    Habs lost last night. Ottawa has 2 games in hand and are only 2 points back!

    Leave a comment:


  • Alfie11
    replied
    Make that five in a row.

    6-9-1 for home ice

    Leave a comment:


  • Alfie11
    replied
    Sens with another win, 5-2 over Dallas.

    7-9-1 should get the Sens home ice advantage in the playoffs.

    Leave a comment:


  • Matt the Aussie
    replied
    vs MTL
    @ MTL
    @ BOS
    vs PIT
    @ MTL

    This string of games is particularly huge for obvious reasons.

    Leave a comment:


  • Alfie11
    replied
    Sens win 4-2 over the Bruins.

    With 78 points now, the Sens will need to go 8-9-1 to reach the 95 point mark for second place in the division. Boston will need to go 10-5-1 in their final 16 games.

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    Originally posted by Alfie11 View Post
    I've been looking into the standings and statistics more recently. While everyone is worried when the Bruins, Panthers or Lightning win, it really doesn't effect the Sens too much. Pretty much every year, you need the same amount of points to make the playoffs in the East. Going back the past eight or so years, Eastern teams usually need around 93 points to make the playoffs (with the exception of 2014-15 because of McDavid tanking). With the new division format, especially this year, you can slip in with even less than usual.

    With the win against Columbus, the Sens have 76 points in 63 games. I believe this season, 95 points will be enough to claim the second spot in the Atlantic division. Getting to 95 points would mean the Sens picking up 19 points in their final 19 games of the season - a record of 9-9-1 (or equivalent). Their biggest competition for that spot at this time is Boston, who has 74 points in 65 games. To get to 95 points, the Bruins would have to pick up 21 points in their final 17 games - a record of 10-6-1 (or equivalent). Here is the Sens final 19 games of the season:

    vs BOS
    @ DAL
    @ ARI
    @ COL
    vs TBL
    vs CHI
    vs MTL
    @ MTL
    @ BOS
    vs PIT
    @ MTL
    @ PHI
    @ MIN
    @ WPG
    @ DET
    vs DET
    @ BOS
    vs NYR
    @ NYI

    The Sens are a weird team this season. They haven't looked great against bottom feeders - getting shutout by Carolina, and just squeaking by Colorado. But they've looked really good against top contending teams, including wins against Washington, Columbus, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Edmonton and San Jose. They've also been extremely consistent this year, rarely losing more than two regulation games in a row. It's harder than ever to look at that list and outline the wins and losses, but I could definitely see the Sens pulling out the required 19 points, clinching home ice advantage and having a resting point before the playoffs.

    What do you guys think?
    Another thing that's interesting is how much the Sens control their own fate here. 9 of those 19 games are against division rivals.

    Leave a comment:


  • Alfie11
    started a topic Stretch Drive

    Stretch Drive

    I've been looking into the standings and statistics more recently. While everyone is worried when the Bruins, Panthers or Lightning win, it really doesn't effect the Sens too much. Pretty much every year, you need the same amount of points to make the playoffs in the East. Going back the past eight or so years, Eastern teams usually need around 93 points to make the playoffs (with the exception of 2014-15 because of McDavid tanking). With the new division format, especially this year, you can slip in with even less than usual.

    With the win against Columbus, the Sens have 76 points in 63 games. I believe this season, 95 points will be enough to claim the second spot in the Atlantic division. Getting to 95 points would mean the Sens picking up 19 points in their final 19 games of the season - a record of 9-9-1 (or equivalent). Their biggest competition for that spot at this time is Boston, who has 74 points in 65 games. To get to 95 points, the Bruins would have to pick up 21 points in their final 17 games - a record of 10-6-1 (or equivalent). Here is the Sens final 19 games of the season:

    vs BOS
    @ DAL
    @ ARI
    @ COL
    vs TBL
    vs CHI
    vs MTL
    @ MTL
    @ BOS
    vs PIT
    @ MTL
    @ PHI
    @ MIN
    @ WPG
    @ DET
    vs DET
    @ BOS
    vs NYR
    @ NYI

    The Sens are a weird team this season. They haven't looked great against bottom feeders - getting shutout by Carolina, and just squeaking by Colorado. But they've looked really good against top contending teams, including wins against Washington, Columbus, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Edmonton and San Jose. They've also been extremely consistent this year, rarely losing more than two regulation games in a row. It's harder than ever to look at that list and outline the wins and losses, but I could definitely see the Sens pulling out the required 19 points, clinching home ice advantage and having a resting point before the playoffs.

    What do you guys think?
Working...
X