2017 Off-Season

[Alfie11]

With the Sens season ending last week, we are officially in the off-season for the club. This year will be a little different than most.

Expansion Draft

The first order of business will be the expansion draft. The Sens will likely go with the 7F/3D/1G approach. They will likely lose Cody Ceci or Marc Methot, unless Phaneuf waives his NMC, in which case they likely lose one of Ryan Dzingel or Chris Wideman, with an off-chance they lose Bobby Ryan or Dion Phaneuf. Losing any of the six players leaves the Sens with a hole that will need to be filled. Ceci and Methot are top four defensemen on the team. Dzingel scored 14 goals and 32 points as a rookie, while Wideman was third on the Sens defensemen in points despite limited offensive opportunities. Phaneuf and Ryan both carry large contracts, but Phaneuf was a leader on D while the Sens surely expect Ryan to turn it around given his playoffs.

NHL Draft

The Sens go into the Draft with the 28th overall selection. Ottawa currently has three blue-chip prospects: Thomas Chabot (D), Colin White (C) and Logan Brown (C). MyNHLDraft.com has the Sens selecting Kole Lind, a centre from Kelowna who scored 30 goals and 87 points in 70 games this year. The Sens also hold the 47th overall pick, the 121st overall pick, and the 183rd overall pick.

Free Agency

The first thing the Sens will need to do, is decide what they are doing with their current UFA's and re-sign their RFA's. They are currently $6.7M away from the current cap, with White, Didomenico, and Harpur all against the cap.

Up front, they have rentals Tommy Wingels and Victor Stalberg due for new contacts, Chris Kelly, Chris Neil, and Tom Pyatt are all UFA's as well and looking for new deals. I would imagine the Sens would like to bring Pyatt back on a short-term deal for a year or two. They would also probably be interested in bringing Wingels and Stalberg back, although both may want to test the free agency waters. The Sens will probably let Chris Kelly and Chris Neil walk/retire. Pageau and Dzingel are both RFA's who are due for a raise.

On D, the Sens are set. After letting Jokipakka walk, the Sens go into free agency with the following guys signed: Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, Cody Ceci, Dion Phaneuf, Chris Wideman, Mark Borowiecki, Frederick Claesson and Ben Harpur. If the Sens lose a top four defenseman to free agency, they will likely need to replace them internally as the cost for defensemen in free agency is always high.

In goal, the Sens currently have Craig Anderson and Andrew Hammond under contract for next season. After only giving him four starts, and going out to acquire Mike Condon, it's clear the Sens have lost trust in Andrew Hammond. Ideally, they would like to move him and his $1.35M contract. Especially because Mike Condon, who filled in very well for Craig Anderson this season, is a UFA. He should be a no-brainer to sign, unless he wants to explore his options at becoming a starting goalie. Matt O'Connor is also a RFA, although he has yet to find his game at the professional level.

The signed roster currently looks like this (in no order)

Mike Hoffman - Kyle Turris - Bobby Ryan
Clarke MacArthur - Derrick Brassard - Mark Stone
Alex Burrows - Zack Smith - Chris Didomenico
xxxxx - Colin White - xxxxx

Erik Karlsson - Marc Methot
Cody Ceci - Dion Phaneuf
Mark Borowiecki - Chris Wideman
Frederick Claeson

Craig Anderson
Andrew Hammond

Keep in mind, the Sens will lose one of these players to Las Vegas (or Dzingel).

[Josh]

I'll write more later on but, in terms of expansion, I think the best case scenario would be Vegas taking either Burrows or Phaneuf (if he waives). I don't think either case is likely though. Instead, I think the Sens will lose either Smith, Methot (if Ceci is protected), or Ceci (if Methot is protected).

[matchesmalone]

Lovely little read Alfie. Thanks for that. I will have further comments later, but lately I've been spending most of my time contemplating the expansion draft. You're right that the Sens most likely go the 7-3 route. And most likely they lose either Methot or Ceci. But it is quite possible that, say they expose Methot, and maybe Vegas goes with a cheaper, younger option for a shutdown defenseman, like Marco Scandella - in which case Dzingel, Wideman or Claesson would be of interest to them.

[Alfie11]

Lovely little read Alfie. Thanks for that. I will have further comments later, but lately I've been spending most of my time contemplating the expansion draft. You're right that the Sens most likely go the 7-3 route. And most likely they lose either Methot or Ceci. But it is quite possible that, say they expose Methot, and maybe Vegas goes with a cheaper, younger option for a shutdown defenseman, like Marco Scandella - in which case Dzingel, Wideman or Claesson would be of interest to them.

As much as I'm not a Ceci guy, he may hold the most value of all the potentially unprotected players. He's the youngest of the bunch at 23 years old and is already an established NHL player. He plays top four minutes and against tough matchups, and while guys like Claesson and Wideman sometimes look better out there, how much of that is because they get the easier minutes? I'm hoping Phaneuf waives his NMC so it's Wideman/Claesson/Dzingel.

[thedaigle1]

As much as I'm not a Ceci guy, he may hold the most value of all the potentially unprotected players. He's the youngest of the bunch at 23 years old and is already an established NHL player. He plays top four minutes and against tough matchups, and while guys like Claesson and Wideman sometimes look better out there, how much of that is because they get the easier minutes? I'm hoping Phaneuf waives his NMC so it's Wideman/Claesson/Dzingel.

I agree that it would suck to lose Ceci for nothing considering the rumours about who Ottawa could have gotten in a trade for him. I'll be sad to see one of Dzingel/Claesson/Wideman go but I take solace in knowing White/Chabot will be stepping in as a replacement. Ideally I'd like to see one of the 30+ players (Ryan/Burrows/Phaneuf/Methot) go but I doubt Vegas takes on any of those contracts.

[Matt the Aussie]

I'm not really convinced by Dzingel, he faded HARD later in the season after a decent start. Ceci has been absolute pants, yes, but I agree that Ottawa can't just lose him for nothing. He's not absolutely worthless, and as Ottawa fans we should know. Remember Cowen, remember Lee, remember Bell etc. etc. etc.

[Alfie11]

I'm not really convinced by Dzingel, he faded HARD later in the season after a decent start. Ceci has been absolute pants, yes, but I agree that Ottawa can't just lose him for nothing. He's not absolutely worthless, and as Ottawa fans we should know. Remember Cowen, remember Lee, remember Bell etc. etc. etc.

I'm not a huge fan of Dzingel, either. I see a potential 20 goal guy if all the cards fall right for him (he's already 25 and put up 14 goals with a very favourable offensive situation). Him or Wideman I wouldn't care to see go. Claesson would suck a little but I could get over that. Ceci or Methot hurts.

[Matt the Aussie]

I'm not a huge fan of Dzingel, either. I see a potential 20 goal guy if all the cards fall right for him (he's already 25 and put up 14 goals with a very favourable offensive situation). Him or Wideman I wouldn't care to see go. Claesson would suck a little but I could get over that. Ceci or Methot hurts.

Fully agree with this statement. Losing a top 4 D should be avoided. Yes we have Chabot but no one should expect wonders out of the kid in year 1.

[thedaigle1]

I'm curious to hear your thoughts on who Ottawa exposes re: handedness. The traditional thinking is that Ceci/Wideman have added value based on right-handedness. I know in the past Josh has been a proponent of playing defenders on their strong side. I think Ceci's value is determined by other GMs' opinions of him and not his performance (his performance is poo) and Wideman was one of the first Senators rumoured to be on Vegas' radar.

[Alfie11]

I'm curious to hear your thoughts on who Ottawa exposes re: handedness. The traditional thinking is that Ceci/Wideman have added value based on right-handedness. I know in the past Josh has been a proponent of playing defenders on their strong side. I think Ceci's value is determined by other GMs' opinions of him and not his performance (his performance is poo) and Wideman was one of the first Senators rumoured to be on Vegas' radar.

Admittedly, I don't put as much research into shot handedness as I should. I realize that right-handed guys like Ceci and Wideman have increased value and are essential to any team.

I value Claesson over Wideman for a few reasons. Defensemen develop slower, usually, but Wideman is 27. He probably won't get too much better at this point. I see him as a bottom pairing puck mover, who can play limited time in the top four when needed. He can also play on the PP and hold his own. Claesson is 24, he moves the puck well, has an interesting offensive upside that I'm not sure how to evaluative yet, he's mobile and he's stable in his own zone. I don't want to see Wideman go, but someone has to. I'd love to have Karlsson - Chabot - Wideman as the puck movers on the team. I think Claesson - Wideman would be a great bottom pairing next season and the season after with some proper seasoning. But at this point, I'd value Claesson a little higher even despite the shot handedness.

[Alfie11]

Elliotte Friedman stated in his 30 Thoughts piece that Phaneuf has been asked to waive his NMC. We'll see what happens here.

[Josh]

Elliotte Friedman stated in his 30 Thoughts piece that Phaneuf has been asked to waive his NMC. We'll see what happens here.

If he waives that would be great. If Vegas takes him I'll be very pleased. It's not that I don't like him, but I think his loss would hurt the least compared to the other options. Wouldn't hurt to get out of that contract. It would make the trade for him one of the best in Sens history, if it isn't already.

If he waives and isn't taken, then that's just one more keeper for Ottawa.

Edit: looks like I already called it one of the top-five Sens trades of all time:

http://forum.highonhockey.com/forum/nhl-eastern-conference/atlantic-division/ottawa-senators/24781-sens-stars?p=24789#post24789

[Alfie11]

If he waives that would be great. If Vegas takes him I'll be very pleased. It's not that I don't like him, but I think his loss would hurt the least compared to the other options. Wouldn't hurt to get out of that contract. It would make the trade for him one of the best in Sens history, if it isn't already.

If he waives and isn't taken, then that's just one more keeper for Ottawa.

Honestly, I'd rather a bottom two defenseman get taken over Phaneuf. Ottawa has a window for a Cup, we have Karlsson, Turris, Brassard, Stone all on cheap deals. Losing Phaneuf is a big hole in the top four, even if that contract will look bad in 2-3 years.

[Alfie11]

Looks like Dion isn't waiving his NMC.

Sens will expose one of Methot/Ceci, barring a trade.

[Matt the Aussie]

Can you blame him? Why would anyone choose to waive that right, especially when the "payoff" is an expansion team that won't likely compete seriously for years.