Vegas draft simulator

[Jasmine]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/assemble-the-knights/draft-simulator

[Josh]

Here's my team. I challenge anyone to come up with a better one:

David Perron - Sam Gagner - Bobby Ryan
Justin Abdelkader - Martin Hanzal - Radim Vrbata
Benoit Pouliot - Mathieu Perreault - Kris Versteeg
Colin Wilson - Alex Killorn - Lee Stempniak
Kyle Clifford - Jacob Josefson - Cal Clutterbuck
Mikhail Grigorenko

Justin Schultz - Nathan Beaulieu
Sami Vatanen - Cody Franson
Alex Petrovic - Trevor van Riemsdyk
David Schlemko - Greg Pateryn
Kevan Miller

Michal Neuvirth
Antti Raanta
Philipp Grubauer
Antoine Bibeau

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/assemble-the-k...rName=YPTLGSSJ

[Dean Ambrose]

Capfriendly has a better one. This is mine ripped from HF when I did it a few weeks ago:

Alex Killorn - Vadim Shipachev - Marcus Johansson
David Perron - Nick Bjugstad - Craig Smith
Charles Hudon - William Karlsson - Lee Stempniak
Josh Leivo - Oscar Lindberg - Lance Bouma
Andrew Copp - Brendan Guance - Jordan Nolan
Nicolas Kerdiles - Scott Laughton

Marc Methot - Jonas Brodin
Brian Dumoulin - Stephen Johns
Calvin de Haan - David Schlemko
Joe Morrow - Ville Pokka
Griffin Reinhart - Kevin Connauton

Jimmy Howard - Calvin Pickard - Scott Wedgewood - Linus Ullmark


I have no idea who some teams plan on protecting, notably:

MIN - regarding their forwards and defense
WSH - regarding forwards (Johansson taken here) and how they try to work the cap
BOS
DET
ANA
TOR - regarding Leivo, Leipsic, Rychel
NYR - regarding Lindberg/Fast/Hayes
ARZ - regarding everything. Literally everything.

[Josh]

Capfriendly has a better one. This is mine ripped from HF when I did it a few weeks ago:

Alex Killorn - Vadim Shipachev - Marcus Johansson
David Perron - Nick Bjugstad - Craig Smith
Charles Hudon - William Karlsson - Lee Stempniak
Josh Leivo - Oscar Lindberg - Lance Bouma
Andrew Copp - Brendan Guance - Jordan Nolan
Nicolas Kerdiles - Scott Laughton

Marc Methot - Jonas Brodin
Brian Dumoulin - Stephen Johns
Calvin de Haan - David Schlemko
Joe Morrow - Ville Pokka
Griffin Reinhart - Kevin Connauton

Jimmy Howard - Calvin Pickard - Scott Wedgewood - Linus Ullmark


I have no idea who some teams plan on protecting, notably:

MIN - regarding their forwards and defense
WSH - regarding forwards (Johansson taken here) and how they try to work the cap
BOS
DET
ANA
TOR - regarding Leivo, Leipsic, Rychel
NYR - regarding Lindberg/Fast/Hayes
ARZ - regarding everything. Literally everything.

I think my team would run through yours like a truck, lol.

Interesting that we both had a few of the same players; Killorn, Perron, Stempniak, and Schlemko.

[Dean Ambrose]

Then you think wrong. ;)

[matchesmalone]

OK so, a couple of things.

First, I've been working on my list for a week and still can't put together anything that makes sense so for now I’ll be playing the role of criticizing your teams without offering any alternatives, yet.

Second thing, worth noting, we can only predict do so much here. It is inevitable that there will be trades before the expansion draft. There are a handful of teams, like Anaheim, Minnesota, Nashville, Ottawa, Columbus, that have a serious excess of protection-worthy players, and a handful of other teams, like New Jersey, Toronto, Vancouver, Carolina and Arizona, with deficiencies of keeper-worthy players. Expect to see a few trades there. That said, we’re stuck doing our predictions assuming no trades, so lets do the best with what we know.

Both of you have Killorn from Tampa. I take it you have Tampa protecting Namestnikov over Killorn? I suppose Namestnikov does have more potential at this point, but he didn’t show it much this year.

You also both have Perron. I’m assuming you have St. Louis protecting Jaskin or Sobotka instead? I don’t see it.

And Stempniak? Carolina is so bereft of decent players, I can’t imagine a scenario where they don’t protect a guy playing in their top six making 2.5 million with just a year left on his contract…

I also find it hard to believe Florida would give up on Bjugstad so easily. Sure he had a terrible year, but he’s still young, and I don’t see who else they would protect instead?

Marcus Johansson is maybe the most confusing name on either list. 58 points this year… I mean, I get that they have Oshie, Alzner and Shattenkirk to re-sign. But with two more years on Johansson’s contract, why lose him for nothing and then risk not being able to sign those UFAs.

[Josh]

OK so, a couple of things.

First, I've been working on my list for a week and still can't put together anything that makes sense so for now I’ll be playing the role of criticizing your teams without offering any alternatives, yet.

Second thing, worth noting, we can only predict do so much here. It is inevitable that there will be trades before the expansion draft. There are a handful of teams, like Anaheim, Minnesota, Nashville, Ottawa, Columbus, that have a serious excess of protection-worthy players, and a handful of other teams, like New Jersey, Toronto, Vancouver, Carolina and Arizona, with deficiencies of keeper-worthy players. Expect to see a few trades there. That said, we’re stuck doing our predictions assuming no trades, so lets do the best with what we know.

Both of you have Killorn from Tampa. I take it you have Tampa protecting Namestnikov over Killorn? I suppose Namestnikov does have more potential at this point, but he didn’t show it much this year.

You also both have Perron. I’m assuming you have St. Louis protecting Jaskin or Sobotka instead? I don’t see it.

And Stempniak? Carolina is so bereft of decent players, I can’t imagine a scenario where they don’t protect a guy playing in their top six making 2.5 million with just a year left on his contract…

I also find it hard to believe Florida would give up on Bjugstad so easily. Sure he had a terrible year, but he’s still young, and I don’t see who else they would protect instead?

Marcus Johansson is maybe the most confusing name on either list. 58 points this year… I mean, I get that they have Oshie, Alzner and Shattenkirk to re-sign. But with two more years on Johansson’s contract, why lose him for nothing and then risk not being able to sign those UFAs.

Good points for sure. In my case, the site I used already had the players pre-protected, and I didn't modify any of them.

Which team do you like to win in a 7-game series against each other?

[matchesmalone]

Tough, but for one series I'd take Josh's team. Just better depth of servivable NHL callibre players.

That said, it looks like Rayzor was looking a bit more toward the future, as an expansion team should.

I've already run through tbe whole process a couple times, first to get inside McPhee's head, and then to get in the other GM's heads, and then in McPhee's head knowing what other GMs might do (as his team will have done their homework and gone through their own simulations), and so on. And I think I've almost got a realistic team put together.

Josh's team has 5 lines of NHL forwards, which doesn't make sense to me. I'm looking for roughly 23 NHL-ready players - 13 F, 8 D, 2G - and then a bunch of prospects.

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[thedaigle1]

I also find it hard to believe Florida would give up on Bjugstad so easily. Sure he had a terrible year, but he’s still young, and I don’t see who else they would protect instead?

Florida has to expose Demers to meet the minimum requirements. To me he's a no-brainer.

[matchesmalone]

OK, I seem to be missing something. Yes, they have to expose Demers, but how does that effect whether they protect Bjugstad? As far as I can tell it just means they expose Demers and protect another defenseman like Pysyk instead?

[thedaigle1]

OK, I seem to be missing something. Yes, they have to expose Demers, but how does that effect whether they protect Bjugstad? As far as I can tell it just means they expose Demers and protect another defenseman like Pysyk instead?

From how I see it Florida exposes:

Luongo

Demers
Pysyk OR Petrovic

Mackenzie
Jokinen

You're definitely taking a defenceman from that group.

[matchesmalone]

........ OK. So we are in agreement that they will protect Bjugstad?

[thedaigle1]

........ OK. So we are in agreement that they will protect Bjugstad?

I would. They seem really invested in him.

Josh and Mike have Perrault and Copp exposed for Winnipeg, respectively. My brief delving into the Jets blogosphere says expose:

Hutchinson

Myers, Stuart, Chiarot, Postma

Mathias, Armia, Thorburn

To me none of those players are as valuable as Perrault or Copp.

[matchesmalone]

OK, that was just some misunderstanding then; the whole time I thought you were arguing in favor of Florida exposing Bjugstad and Vegas taking him. When you said "to me he's a no-brainer", I thought you were referring to Bjugstad, not Demers.

As for Winnipeg, despite what fans say, I really think the Jets will go the 4D option. Despite his injuries and all the stigma around him, Myers' upside is too much to give up for free. If that's the case, then we know for sure they protect Little, Wheeler, Scheifele, and then only have one more option at forward. To me, it seems to be between Perreault and Lowry. Copp hasn't really established himself at the NHL level yet.

It's a really tough choice between Perreault and Lowry. Tough to give up on a consistent 40-point producer, who could easily put up 50 if he ever stayed healthy. His contract is reasonable, but not great, an still has quite a bit of term left, and at 29, given his injury history, it is not unlikely that his play will deteriorate before 2021. Also, the Jets already have Scheifele and Little down the middle, and so Perreault is stuck in a depth role there. Lowry is a better fit playing behind those two, as an ideal type of player for a third line center, and has found his niche as their burgeoning PK-specialist.

One team that is really giving me headaches is Anaheim. With Bieksa, Vatanaen, Lindholm and Fowler, it would seem to make sense that they'd go the 4D route, but I don't think they will. With Kesler, Getzlaf and Perry aging, and some really promising young D in Theodore and Montour, Anaheim can afford to lose a D a lot more than they can afford to lose a forward. So I think Vatanen will be the odd man out. But that said, it also seems very likely that they'll try to trade one of their D before the draft, and with teams like Carolina, New Jersey and Toronto desperate for help on D, I suspect they will be able to make a move there. That said, we don't have that option in the simulator, so I have to go with Vegas picking Vatanen.

[matchesmalone]

The other thing I'm having trouble trying to predict is UFAs. We know that once Vegas gets the protected lists they will have a window to try to negotiate with UFAs. But what UFAs would want to sign with an expansion team? I'm struggling with this especially with Washington. Oshie, Williams, Alzner, Shattenkirk all UFA. Why would you waste a protection spot on a player who might not sign with you anyway? So I have Washington leave those guys available, but I can't imagine any of them signing with Vegas. Every player wants to win a Stanley Cup, and if you're old enough to be a UFA, then you probably don't want to go into an expansion team knowing you're not going to be a Cup contender anytime soon.

The only players I think it will make sense to want to sign in Vegas is players who think they deserve to be top line players and aren't getting that opportunity on their teams, but would with Vegas. One guy I'm looking at is Anders Nilsson for Buffalo. Presumably Vegas will go with one veteran starting goalie like Howard or Niemi, and then their second option should be a promising youngish goalie just coming into his own, who will challenge the veteran for minutes, and for whom the veteran can act as a mentor. If Carolina decides to protect Ward, then Darling might be a perfect fit for this second goalie, but if Carolina protects Darling instead, Nilsson might be the next best option.