I have compiled a spreadsheet of every draft pick between 1990 and 2006 based simply on whether each pick was used successfully to select a regular NHL player. Here a regular NHL player was defined as either a skater who played at least 400 NHL games, or at least 300 NHL games and three full seasons in the NHL (at least 60 games), OR a goalie who played at least 150 NHL games or at least 100 NHL games and three full seasons (at least 20 games would suffice for a full season as a backup). There were also a small handful of players who I gave an exception - the only two I can remember off hand were Pasi Nurminem, a goalie who played 125 career games, but two of them were full seasons as a starter of 52 and 64 games, and Robert Nilsson, a center who played 252 NHL games and three full seasons, but one of them was a season of 41 points in 71 games. So as you can see, they were fairly impact players when they did play.
OK, so on average, 41.75 regular NHL players - according to my definition - come out of each draft. I felt quite rectified when I noticed that the most players (50) came out of the 2003 draft - generally regarded as one of the deepest drafts of all time; and that the least players (29) came out of the 1999 draft - generally regarded as one of the worst of all time.
Now to the good stuff:
On average,
- a first round pick (1-31) yields an NHL player 55.2% of the time
- a second round pick (32-62) yields an NHL player 23.8% of the time
- a third round pick (63-93) yields an NHL player 17.5% of the time
- a fourth round pick (94-124) yields an NHL player 10.3% of the time
- a fifth round pick (125-155) yields an NHL player 9.7% of the time
- a sixth round pick (156-186) yields an NHL player 10.7% of the time
- a seventh round pick (187-217) yields an NHL player 7.5% of the time
Note that I stopped gathering data after pick 217. The NHL draft only have 217 picks right now so I decided anything beyond that, while perhaps interesting, wouldn't be particularly useful.
To break things down further:
- a top 10 pick: 75%
- a top 20 pick: 63.75%
- a top 40 pick: 49.0625%
- a top 50 pick: 44.5%
- picks between 11-20: 52.5%
- picks between 21-31: 39.7727%
- picks between 32-41: 26.875%
- picks between 42-51: 25.625%
- picks between 52-62: 19.3181%
Success rates by pick for the first round:
- first overall: 100%
- second overall: 100%
- third overall: 87.5%
- fourth overall: 81.25%
- fifth overall: 87.5%
- sixth overall: 62.5%
- seventh overall: 62.5%
- eighth overall: 68.75%
- 9th overall: 50%
- 10th overall: 50%
- 11th overall: 68.75%
- 12th overall: 62.5%
- 13th overall: 68.75%
- 14th overall: 62.5%
- 15th overall: 25%
- 16th overall: 37.5%
- 17th overall: 50%
- 18th overall: 43.75%
- 19th overall: 50%
- 20th overall: 56.25%
- 21st overall: 62.5%
- 22nd overall: 31.25%
- 23rd overall: 50%
- 24th overall: 43.75%
- 25th overall: 50%
- 26th overall: 43.75%
- 27th overall: 43.75%
- 28th overall: 31.25%
- 29th overall: 43.75%
- 30th overall: 25%
- 31st overall: 12.5%
OK, so on average, 41.75 regular NHL players - according to my definition - come out of each draft. I felt quite rectified when I noticed that the most players (50) came out of the 2003 draft - generally regarded as one of the deepest drafts of all time; and that the least players (29) came out of the 1999 draft - generally regarded as one of the worst of all time.
Now to the good stuff:
On average,
- a first round pick (1-31) yields an NHL player 55.2% of the time
- a second round pick (32-62) yields an NHL player 23.8% of the time
- a third round pick (63-93) yields an NHL player 17.5% of the time
- a fourth round pick (94-124) yields an NHL player 10.3% of the time
- a fifth round pick (125-155) yields an NHL player 9.7% of the time
- a sixth round pick (156-186) yields an NHL player 10.7% of the time
- a seventh round pick (187-217) yields an NHL player 7.5% of the time
Note that I stopped gathering data after pick 217. The NHL draft only have 217 picks right now so I decided anything beyond that, while perhaps interesting, wouldn't be particularly useful.
To break things down further:
- a top 10 pick: 75%
- a top 20 pick: 63.75%
- a top 40 pick: 49.0625%
- a top 50 pick: 44.5%
- picks between 11-20: 52.5%
- picks between 21-31: 39.7727%
- picks between 32-41: 26.875%
- picks between 42-51: 25.625%
- picks between 52-62: 19.3181%
Success rates by pick for the first round:
- first overall: 100%
- second overall: 100%
- third overall: 87.5%
- fourth overall: 81.25%
- fifth overall: 87.5%
- sixth overall: 62.5%
- seventh overall: 62.5%
- eighth overall: 68.75%
- 9th overall: 50%
- 10th overall: 50%
- 11th overall: 68.75%
- 12th overall: 62.5%
- 13th overall: 68.75%
- 14th overall: 62.5%
- 15th overall: 25%
- 16th overall: 37.5%
- 17th overall: 50%
- 18th overall: 43.75%
- 19th overall: 50%
- 20th overall: 56.25%
- 21st overall: 62.5%
- 22nd overall: 31.25%
- 23rd overall: 50%
- 24th overall: 43.75%
- 25th overall: 50%
- 26th overall: 43.75%
- 27th overall: 43.75%
- 28th overall: 31.25%
- 29th overall: 43.75%
- 30th overall: 25%
- 31st overall: 12.5%
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