Prospects

[matchesmalone]

Trying to keep a running list.

2023:

1. Connor Bedard
2. Matvei Michkov
3. Adam Fantilli
4. Leo Carlsson
5. Will Smith
6. Colby Barlow
7. Dalibor Dvorsky
8. Quentin Musty
9. Aram Minnetian
10. Calum Ritchie
11. Eduard Sale
12. Brayden Yaeger
13. Lukas Dragicevik
14. Kasper Halttunen
15. Andrew Cristal
16. Matthew Wood
17. Zach Benson
18. Jesse Kiiskinen
19. Mikhail Gulyayev
20. David Reinbacher
21. Koehn Ziemmer
22. Noah Dower Nilsson
23. Charlie Stramel
24. Daniil But
25. Axel Sandin-Pellikka
26. Otto Stenberg
27. Ryan Leonard
28. Nate Danielson
29. Cam Allen
30. Oscar Fisker Moller
31. Michael Hrabel
32. Max Strbak
33. Gabe Perreault
34. Theo Lindstein
35. Riley Heidt
36. Jesse Nurmi


2024:

1. Aron Kiviharju
2. Cole Eiserman
3. Henry Mews
4. Ivan Demidov
5. Berkly Catton
6. Macklin Celebrini
7. Maxim Masse
8. Konsta Helenius
9. Zayne Parekh
10. Emil Hemming
11. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard
12. Will Skahan
13. Nathan Villeneuve
14. Karl Sterner
15. Tanner Howe
16. Veeti Vaisanen
17. Christian Humphries
18. Adam Jecho
19. Paul Mayer
20. Alfons Freij


2025

1. James Hagens
2. Michael Misa
3. Malcolm Spence
4. Jordan Gavin
5. Henry Brzustewicz
6. Anton Frondell
7. Porter Martone
8. Masun Fleece
9. Jakob Ihs Wozniak
10. Dakoda Rheume-Mullen
11. Roger McQueen
12. Gabriel D'Aigle
13. Samuel Misak
14. Will Sharpe
15. Liam Kilfoil

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Zayne Parekh looks legit.

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Scoring totals for top NTDP U18 players against NCAA Di opponents:

Forwards

Gabriel Perreault 5'11 LW/C 16-16-15-31 +15

Will Smith 6'0 C 16-9-20-29 +12

Ryan Leonard 5'10 RW/C 16-13-14-27 +13

Oliver Moore 5'11 C 14-9-12-21 +11

Danny Nelson LW 6'3 16-5-7-12 +4


Defence

Aram Minnetian 6'0 RD 16-4-7-11 +4

Zeev Buium 6'0 LD 16-1-9-10 +10

Drew Fortescue 6'3 LD 16-0-9-9 -2

Paul Fischer 6'1 LD 11-0-8-8 +2


Will Smith is going to be something special. One of my main scouting focuses now days is on pro-translatability, where you have on the one hand prospects who are immensely skilled but are coach's nightmares (Gleb Trikozov, Fabian Lysell) and on the other hand, players who are coach's dreams but maybe not the most skilled in the world (Cole Sillinger, Liam Ohgren come to mind). But then every once in a while you have those rare breeds who bring the best of both worlds (Lucas Raymond, Logan Cooley are prime examples). Smith falls into the third category. Immensely skilled and not at all afraid to use it where appropriate, but knows how to pick his spots and when to make the simple play. Uses his linemates fantastically well, both directly creating chances for them, but also putting them in positions to use their skill and make plays themselves. Somewhat reminiscent of Logan Cooley; Cooley is a little craftier with his puckhandling, but Smith is a little bigger and I think a little bit of a better playmaker.

Gabe Perreault is kind of the inverse of Smith, and perhaps this is part of why they're so perfect together. Incredibly skilled, but pro-translatability is a major question mark. Kid loves to create his own offence and often takes a lot of risks to do so, but up to the NCAA level, he's been tremendously successful in doing so.

Ryan Leonard is interesting. First and foremost he's a meat-and-potatoes two-way forward. He's a grinder, gets around the net, can kill penalties, but I also think his skill is under-rated. A player that can create his own odd man rushes and then can beat guys one on one is going to be a pretty intriguing prospect.

Oliver Moore is the most under-rated of the bunch. Just by virtue of being a pure center he gets stuck on the second line behind Smith, and they very often roll out the big line of Perreault-Smith-Leonard all together while Moore centers the second line with much lesser offensive talents. Very fast skater with high hockey IQ and some pretty good skill makes him a virtual lock to be at least a useful PKer and bottom six forward at the NHL level, something along the lines of an Andrew Cogliano. Considering that's sort of a floor, and something like Mike Richards would be a ceiling, NHL teams are going to have their eyes on this player starting around the middle of the 1st round.

On defense, I'm obsessed with Aram Minnetian of late. Have been for a while now actually. Utterly dynamic; I couldn't name another defenseman in this draft I'd rather have carrying the puck through the neutral zone. Escapabilty off the charts. As a converted forward, he's very much a work in progress not only in the defensive zone, but also in other areas specific to defensemen. If he was playing for almost any ordinary CHL or USHL team instead of an all-star team, he would almost certainly run the top powerplay, but Zeev Buium is a one-man circus tightrope walking the offensive blueline (on par with the like of Heimosalmi and Luke Hughes in their draft years). Buium usually plays the left point on the top powerplay, opposite to Will Smith. Minnetian has a ton of room to grow as he continues to learn to be a full-time defenseman, and so his all-around upside is simply off the charts,. Buium is a late birthday and not draft eligible until 2024, but I'm starting to think he will go very high in that draft. On top of his offensive zone abilities, his +10 rating seems to support the eye test when it suggests he's very sound defensively as well.

Paul Fischer reminds me a fair amount of Ryan Chesley - decent size at around 6' or 6'1, and a solid, intelligent two-way defenseman, but I think I like Fischer's offensive upside a little better than Chesley's.

[Josh]

Check out Nela Lopušanová!

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/879313/nela-lopusanova

At only 14 years old, she was the MVP and scoring leader of the women's WJC. She currently plays in the top U16 Slovakian league and has a points-per-game pace good for 2nd place. That's the top league, not the top women's league. It's the same league that last year's 1st overall NHL draft pick Juraj Slafkovsky played in at that age. And her pace is better than his was.

She's also as big at 14 as Cole Caufield is at 22..

[matchesmalone]

1. Connor Bedard
2. Matvei Michkov
3. Leo Carlsson
4. Adam Fantilli
5. Will Smith
6. Dalibor Dvorsky
7. Calum Ritchie
8. Zach Benson
9. Colby Barlow
10. Aram Minnetian
11. Matthew Wood
12. Ryan Leonard
13. Brayden Yager
14. Mikhail Gulyayev
15. Eduard Sale
16. David Reinbacher
17. Oliver Moore
18. Daniil But
19. Gabe Perreault
20. Andrew Cristall
21. Otto Stenberg
22. Lukas Dragicevic
23. Charlie Stramel
24. Axel Sandin-Pellikka
25. Samuel Honzek
26. Jesse Kiiskinen
27. Kasper Halttunen
28. Noah Dower-Nilsson
29. Koehn Ziemer
30. Nate Danielson
31. Theo Lindstein
32. Trey Augustine
33. Dmitri Simashev
34. Riley Heidt
35. Jesse Nurmi

[matchesmalone]

1. Connor Bedard
2, Matvei Michkov
3. Leo Carlsson
4. Adam Fantilli
5. Dalibor Dvorsky
6. Will Smith
7. Ryan Leonard
8. Eduard Sale
9. Zach Benson
10. Mikhail Gulyayev
11. David Reinbacher
12. Calum Ritchie
13. Colby Barlow
14. Nate Danielson
15. Matthew Wood
16. Brayden Yager
17. Gabe Perreault
18. Aram Minnetian
19. Axel Sandin-Pellikka
20. Daniil But
21. Oliver Moore
22. Samuel Honzek
23. Kasper Halttunen
24. Theo Lindstein
25. Caden Price
26. Lukas Dragicevic
27. Riley Heidt
28. Charlie Stramel
29. Andrew Cristall
30. David Edstrom
31. Otto Stenberg
32. Dmitri Simashev

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2024

1. Macklin Celebrini - Two way center in the mould of Toews or Bergeron. Highly skilled and creative but maybe not as dynamic as you'd hope for a first overall pick.
2. Konsta Helenius - Celebrini is more mature, physically and stylistically, but Helenius might be the higher long-term upside player.
3. Aron Kiviharju -
4. Cole Eiserman
5. Cayden Lindstrom
6. Ivan Demidov
7. Henry Mews
8. Charlie Elick
9. Sam Dickinson
10. Beckett Seneke
11. Adam Jiricek
12. Zayne Parekh
13. Cole Beaudoin
14. Michael Hage
15. Berkly Catton
16. Emil Hemming
17. Zeev Buium
18. Ondrej Kos

Adam Jecho
Markus Loponen
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard
Maxim Masse
Anthony Cristoforo
Nathan Villeneuve
Veeti Vaisanen
Sebastian Soini
Tanner Howe
Christian Humphries
Cole Hutson
Karl Sterner
Will Skahan
Tomas Lavoie
Matthew Virgilio

2025
1. James Hagens
2. Michael Misa
3. Malcolm Spence
4. Henry Brzustewicz
5. Porter Martone
6. Jordan Gavin
7. Jacob Ihs Wozniak
8. Matthew Schaefer
9. Roger McQueen
10. Brady Martin

Dakoda Rheaume-Mullen
Ivan Ryabkin
Jake O'Brien
Filip Ekberg
Viktor Eklund
Logan Hensler
Liam Kilfoil
Reese Hamilton
William Moore
Cole Chandler
Masun Fleece
Donato Bracco
Emile Guite
Anton Frondell
Caleb Desnoyer
Jackson Smith
Ty Peddigrew
Kayden McGuigan
Peyton Kettles

2026
1. Gavin McKenna
2. Ryan Roobroek
3. Beckham Edwards

Brady Wassilyn
Kent Greer
Oliver Torkki
Rasmus Rinne
Noah Kosick
Arseni Ilyin

2027
Landon Dupont

[matchesmalone]

1. Connor Bedard
2. Leo Carlsson
3. Adam Fantilli
4. Matvei Michkov
5. Will Smith
6. Eduard Sale
7. Dalibor Dvorsky
8. Ryan Leonard
9. Mikhail Gulyayev
10. David Reinbacher
11. Daniil But
12. Nate Danielson
13. Dimitri Simashev
14. Zach Benson
15. Matthew Wood
16. Oliver Moore
17. Colby Barlow
18. Gabe Perreault
19. Axel Sandin-Pellikka
20. Samuel Honzek
21. Tom Willander
22. Theo Lindstein
23. Calum Ritchie
24. Lukas Dragicevic
25. David Edstrom
26. Kasper Halttunen
27. Otto Stenberg
28. Andrew Cristall
29. Reilly Heidt
30. Juraj Pekarcik
31. Maxim Strbak
Anton Wahlberg
Aram Minnetian
32. Jesse Kiiskinen
34. Koehn Ziemmer
35. Charlie Stramel
36. Oliver Bonk
38. Nick Lardis
Danny Nelson
39. Ethan Gauthier
40. Oskar Fisker-Molgaard
41. Carson Bjarnasson
43. Beau Akey
44. Carson Rehkopf
45. Lenni Hameenaho
46. Kalan Lind
47. Trey Augustine
48. Cam Allen
49. Michael Hrabal
50. Jayden Perron
51. Felix Unger Sorum
53. Gavin Brindley
54. Coulson Pitre
Jakub Dvorak
55. Caden Price
56. Hunter Brzustewicz
57. Jacob Fowler
58. Bradley Nadeau
59. Tanner Molendyk
60. Carey Terrance
61. Noel Nordh
62. Nico Myatovic
Ethan Miedema
Martin Misiak
63. Rasmus Kumpalainen
64. Gracyn Sawchyn
65. Roman Kantserov
66. Aydar Suniev
67. Luca Cagnoni
68. Andrew Gibson
69. Felix Nilsson
70. Beckett Hendrickson
Jaden Lipinski
71. Noah Dower Nilsson
72. Jakub Stancl
73. Etienne Morin
74. Easton Cowan
75. Connor Levis
76. Adam Gajan
77. William Whitelaw
78. Tristan Bertucci
79. Mathieu Cataford
81. Gavin McCarthy
82. Alex Ciernik
83. Jesse Nurmi
84. Ondrej Molnar
85. Emil Jarventie
86. Arttu Karki
87. Ryan Fine
88. Andrew Strathman
89. Tanner Ludtke
90. Denver Barkey

Still missing: Dylan McKinnon, Quentin Burns, Drew Fortescue, Paul Fischer, Angus McDowell, , Tyler Peddle,

[matchesmalone]

1. Connor Bedard - What more is there to say at this point? The best prospect since Connor McDavid.

2. Leo Carlsson - I still think he's probably a center long-term, but he's gonna be a bit of a project to reach his full potential. Needs to work on his attention to details and intensity off the puck, particularly on the defensive side of play. Not as NHL-ready or translatable as Fantilli or Dvorsky, but I'm trying to rank for when they're 25, and if he pans out, the upside is tremendous. The way he seamlessly blends skill and power is reminiscent of a young Jack Eichel or Mika Zibanejad.

3. Adam Fantilli - Always in the middle of things defensively, constantly disrupting all over the ice. Elite skating and 200-foot IQ combined with a physical, hard-hitting mentality and a well-rounded offensive toolkit, make Fantilli about as safe a pick as you can get to be at least a 2nd line center.

4. Dalibor Dvorsky - Even though Fantilli and Carlsson are quicker, more dynamic skaters, Dvorsky's intensity and ferocity in puck battles make the former two seem lackadaisical by comparison. Not to say Fantilli lacks intensity, but he often seems more inclined to read the play and let it come to him, whereas Dvorsky is a rabid dog on a bone. I just think even at his floor, you're getting a hell of a player that every team will covet come playoffs. Ceiling could be pretty special. Remember what Kopitar was down low for the Kings' on their two Cup runs?

5. Will Smith - Controls the pace of the game. Has this uncanny knack for casually strolling into soft spots in coverage with the puck, drawing defenders into him where he can burn them with a deke or find the open pass. Especially with Perreault and Leonard on his flanks, defenders would often have to show too much respect to his passing game and he could sometimes just walk up the open lane.

6. Matvei Michkov - I said I'd always go purely by hockey in my rankings, but EP has him listed at 148 lbs and he wasn't at the combine. So many red flags and too many phenomenal prospects at the top of this draft.

7. Daniil But - I've been saying I think he's a center, but in that regard it would be nice if he passed the puck a little more often. I suppose at the MHL level if you can dominate entire opposing teams yourself, why not go for it? Could still use his frame better, but already the combination of stick skills and brute power is electrifying. Stick skill and shot are his best attributes, but I don't mind his skating at all. Looks lanky and awkward, but the control, balance and evasiveness he has on his edges suggests skating could help him to be an offensive difference-maker in the long run.

8. Ryan Leonard - Power forward with smarts, skills and combativeness. Sometimes you forget how good his hands are until he does something extraordinary one-on-one. Only concern I can see is how's the vision / play-creation? Can seem to have a little tunnel-vision at times.

9. Nate Danielson - Smooth-skating power center. A true "coach's dream," he attacks north-south, he drives the net, he plays heavy, he plays fast, he's responsible defensively and strong on draws.

10. Eduard Sale - Comparison: Bobby Ryan. Despite the questions about intensity, the combination of tools (speed, shot, hands), IQ, vision in a 6'2 frame makes the upside just too good to pass up after the sure-things are gone. Even when he doesn't look involved in the game for long stretches, you blink and he's scored a couple goals.

11. David Reinbacher - Looks like a surefire two-way top four D, with some room for offensive upside.

12. Mikhail Gulyayev - Highest offensive upside defenseman in the draft. Might not be the best all-around defenseman in the draft, but he'll be an analytic darling the way he dominates zone exits and drives scoring chances for.

13. Zach Benson - High IQ, average skating on a small frame always reminds me of Mikael Granlund. He was a good player for along stretch. Benson is expected to be a better defensive forward.

14. Dimitri Simashev - Reminds me of Shakir Mukhamadullin in a lot of ways. Although Mukhamadullin is a great skater in his own right, Simashev's skating is on another level. His defensive game certainly isn't as polished as Mukhamadullin's at the same age and he doesn't look as poised on the powerplay. Not as safe and steady a pick, but Simashev's combination of raw tools, size and physical edge make the upside pretty hard to ignore.

15. Matthew Wood

16. Colby Barlow

17. Gabe Perreault

18. Oliver Moore

19. Tom Willander

20. Samuel Honzek

21. Axel Sandin-Pellikka

22. Lukas Dragicevic

23. Brayden Yager

24. David Edstrom

25. Otto Stenberg

26. Quentin Musty

27. Riley Heidt

28. Andrew Cristall

29. Kasper Halttunen

30. Max Strbak

31. Juraj Pekarcik

32. Theo Lindstein

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1. Chicago - Connor Bedard (Director of Amateur Scouting: Mike Doneghey) - Doesn't matter though, they're taking Bedard

2. Anaheim - Adam Fantilli (Directer of Player Evaluation: Bruce Franklin) - Again, probably wouldn't matter much who the scouts are behind the pick, Fantilli is the guy.

3. Columbus - Leo Carlsson (DAS: Ville Siren, ADAS: Trevor Timmins) - Timmins took Caufield early pretty recently, so there's some precedent for NTDP here, but Kekelainen seems to actively avoid drafting from that program. Besides, Carlsson seems to be the consensus BPA here.

4. San Jose - Will Smith (DAS: Chris Morehouse, DPP: Scott Fitzgerald) - Boston drafted incessantly out of the USHL and NTDP while Fitzgerald was there, so hard to imagine Smith falling past them here.

5. Montreal - Dalibor Dvorsky (DAS/DPP: Martin LaPointe, co-DAS: Nick Bobrov) - Maybe this is my personal bias showing, but they did take a Slovak first overall and another in the first round last year. Dvorsky feels like a Martin LaPointe kinda pick, although the same could be said for Leonard.

6. Arizona - Matthew Wood (GM: Bill Armstrong, DAS: Darryl Plandowski, ADAS: Ryan Jankowski) - These are tricky picks to predict. Between three old school Canadians at the helm, the tendencies scream CHL, but it seems a little early for any of the CHLers here. A trade-down seems likely, but if they're going to pick then Wood is my best guess, as both head scouts are based out of Western Canada, and the last two times Armstrong went outside of CHL in the first were collegiate players Logan Cooley and Tage Thompson.

7. Philadelphia - Ryan Leonard (AGM: Brent Flahr, DHO: Tom Minton) - This was the easiest decision since the first couple picks. Tom Minton has a close connection to the NTDP, Flahr has a long history drafting from the program, and the Torts-coached Flyers say they're looking for compete above all else in a draft pick. Not to mention he's the pretty clear BPA here.

8. Washington - Matvei Michkov (AGM: Ross Mahoney, DAS: Steve Bowman, DHO: Kris Wagner) All of the top guys running the draft have been there many years and had a ton of success, particularly out of Russia.

9. Detroit - David Reinbacher (DAS: Kris Draper, DES: Hakan Andersson) - They've picked overwhelmingly out of Europe with early picks since Yzerman took over. Mostly Sweden, but Seider came out of another secondary hockey market in Germany.

10. St. Louis - Colby Barlow (DAS: Tony Feltrin) - In 1999 Tony Feltrin and the Isles had three picks in the top ten and took all three out of the OHL. The Blues have also been hard after these heavy forwards lately (Snuggerud, Bolduc, Neighbors).

11. Vancouver - Tom Willander (GM: Patrik Allvin, DAS: Todd Harvey) - I have a feeling Gradin is going to be Allvin's number one guy. Looking like he hit it out of the park with another Swedish defenseman in Pettersson last year. Usually when a player skyrockets up Bob McKenzie's final ranking, they end up going even earlier on draft day.

12. Arizona - Nate Danielson - Again, the smart money is on a big forward out of Western Canada here.

13. Buffalo - Zach Benson (DAS Jerry Forton) - They have a pretty heavy core in place and went all skill with three firsts last year, including Benson's linemate Savoie at 9th overall.

14. Pittsburgh - Oliver Moore (DAS: Nick Pryor) - I mentioned before the Minnesota connection with their new head scout. Pretty good argument that Moore is BPA here, although Dubas doesn't have much of a track record drafting NTDP.

15. Nashville - Dimitri Simashev (AGM: Jeff Kealty) - Trotz said they wanna swing for the fences, well here you go.

16. Calgary - Gabe Perreault (DAS: Tod Button) - Arguably their two best picks under Button have been Adam Fox straight out of NTDP, and Matthew Tkachuk a year removed from it.

17. Detroit - Axel Sandin-Pellikka

18. Winnipeg - Eduard Sale (DAS: Mark Hillier) - They don't mind taking flawed players with upside later in the first round.

19. Chicago - Brayden Yager

20. Seattle - Samuel Honzek (DAS: Robert Kron) - A strong European scouting staff but so far they've played it safe, picking mostly from North America. I'm sure covid didn't help. A European via CHL would be a great way to dip their toe in the water.

21. Minnesota - Daniil But (DAS: Judd Brackett)

22. Philadelphia - Gavin Brindley - Flahr drafts out of USHL and NTDP as much as anyone. I thought we were out of NTDPers for the first round but then I remembered Brindley. Seems like a Daniel Briere pick.

23. Rangers - Quentin Musty (DAS: John Lilley)

24. Nashville - Otto Stenberg

25. St. Louis - Calum Ritchie

26. San Jose - Mikhail Gulyayev

27. Colorado - Theo Lindstein (DAS: Wade Klippenstein, DHO: Scott Harris)

28. Toronto - Riley Heidt (DAS: Wes Clark, DPP: Dave Morrison)

29. St. Louis - Bradley Nadeau

30. Carolina - Andrew Cristall (AGM: Darren Yorke)

31. Colorado - Ethan Gauthier

32. Vegas - Oliver Bonk (DPP: Vaughn Karpan, ADPP: Bob Lowes, DAS: Scott Luce)

[matchesmalone]

Double post

[matchesmalone]

1. Ivan Demidov

2. Macklin Celebrini C 5'11, 180 - Elite two-way forward with a mature, pro-translatable game and some high-end offensive playmaking and creativity, just maybe not the most dynamic offensive threat. Comparables: Jonathan Toews / Patrice Bergeron.

3. Cole Eiserman LW 5'11, 190 - Explosive, powerful athlete. Hyper-competitive. Tenacious after pucks. Elite goal-scorer. Unstoppable from inside the tops of the faceoff circles at the junior level. Comparable: Peter Bondra

4. Sam Dickinson

5. Aron Kiviharju LD 5'10, 165 - Small defenseman and not the most dynamic skater, but he's incredibly smart and skilled. Comparables: Nicklas Lidstrom, Adam Fox.

6. Cayden Lindstrom LW/C 6'5, 190 - Huge power forward with skill, quickness, and playmaking ability. Comparables: Tage Thompson, Quentin Byfield.

7. Konsta Helenius C 5'10, 170 - Simply an electric offensive weapon. Celebrini was the best under-ager at the U18s, but he's more physically developed and plays a more mature two-way game. Helenius drives offense like few prospects in this draft, although I wonder if he doesn't play a little too much on the perimeter. Has a bit of a physical edge but it's inconsistent, and he still needs to do a lot of filling out.

8. Beckett Seneke RW 6'2, 180

9. Cole Beaudoin

10. Henry Mews RD 6', 185 - He's a project with elite skating and high-end tools, but he's a wild stallion that needs to be reigned in right now.