General Sens Talk - Part III

[Matt the Aussie]

Namestnikov to Colorado for a 2021 4th. That's a dud of a trade.

However, Dorion makes up for that with Pageau to the Islanders for a 1st (top 3 protected, becomes 2021 1st if so) AND 2nd and a long shot 2022 3rd if the Isles win the Cup.

That's now likely 3 picks in the first round and a whopping 9 picks in the first three rounds. Here's hoping the scouts know what to do with that many choices...

[matchesmalone]

Meh, Namestnikov is probably just above replacement level. There's that weird spot where you're good enough to be a full time NHLer but not really good enough to be worth the contract you're going to make as a regular NHLer on the open market.

The crucial point about all these high picks is we will have practically unlimited freedom and opportunity to move up in the draft at any time. We'll be able to aggressive target the players we really want.

[Josh]

I'm happy with the returns for DeMelo, Namestnikov, and Pageau, but I wish we could have extracted more for Ennis. He's going to do great in the playoffs with Edmonton.

Imagine the Islanders lose a ton of their remaining games. There's technically a possibility, however remote, that Ottawa winds up with 1st, 2nd, and 4th overall!

[Matt the Aussie]

Yeah the Ennis one was a head-scratcher. If that's the best you can get for him, why bother moving him at all? He makes no money and unless he goes on some crazy tear, won't make much more next year?

[Josh]

Yeah the Ennis one was a head-scratcher. If that's the best you can get for him, why bother moving him at all? He makes no money and unless he goes on some crazy tear, won't make much more next year?

Agreed. That said, he'll be unrestricted in July, so it's not like we had any leverage to offer him an extra year on a max term contract. I suppose getting something is still better than nothing.

[matchesmalone]

Playing around with Tankathon and I picked a random draft order and made an off-season gameplan, continuing from my last summer idea on rebuilding in phases or waves:

1. Ottawa (from SJS) - Alexis Lafreniere - Dorion has had success from the Q.
2. Detroit - Tim Stutzle - Yzerman returns to Adler Manheim.
3. Anaheim - Quinton Byfield - Getzlaf's replacement.

Sens trade picks 4, 21, 33 to New Jersey for 6 and 10.

4. New Jersey - Lucas Raymond
5. L.A. - Jamie Drysdale
6. Ottawa - Anton Lundell - Head European scout Mikko Ruutu is a big voice in this year's draft. He's close to NHL-ready. Plays the game the way the Sens want to play it.
7. Buffalo - Marco Rossi
8. Montreal - Alex Holtz
9. Chicago - Cole Perfetti
10. Ottawa - Dawson Mercer - Maritime connection with Trent Mann. Plays a 200 foot game but is also highly crafty offensively.

Cap will be down next year. That is incredibly valuable to the Sens. At the end of draft day one, Sens have 46, 51, 54, 64, 73, 95. Dorion trades Logan Brown, Mike Reilly to Tampa Bay for Erik Cernak. I was thinking about doing a trade for Sergachev, but he's another LD, and I'd rather wait for summer of 2021 when we're actually trying to compete to make a bigger trade like that.

46. Ottawa - Luke Evangelista - RS RW, responsible, smart winger, plays well with skilled players; some upside. London connection with Don Boyd.
51. Ottawa - Cross Hanas - LS LW, high end raw skill, just lanky and not getting a ton of opportunity on a stacked team. Portland connection with Bobby Strumm.
54. Ottawa - Ruben Rafkin - RS RD, Ruutu would know him from Finland, and we have a strong contingent in the Northeastern States.
73. Ottawa - Yegor Sokolov RS RW, QMJHL again, maritime connection.
95. Ottawa - Landon Slaggert - LS C/LW, Dorion has some history drafting from NTDP.
NCAA and Europe for the late rounds. Maybe a goalie.

Sign Duclair for one year, C. Brown for three years and Tierney for two. Go into 2020/21 with:

Anthony Duclair - Chris Tierney - Connor Brown
Brady Tkachuk - Josh Norris - Bobby Ryan
Alexis Lafreniere - Colin White - Artem Anisimov
Rudolfs Balcers - Filip Chlapik - Drake Batherson
Nick Paul

Thomas Chabot - Erik Cernak
Erik Brannstrom - Nikita Zaitsev
Christian Wolanin - Mark Borowiecki
Christian Jaros

AHL:

Alex Formenton - Anton Lundell - Vitali Abramov
Michael Carcone - Shane Pinto - Jonathan Davidsson
Jonathan Gruden - Parker Kelly - Chris Wilkie
Markus Nurmi - Mark Kastelic - Yegor Sokolov
Andrew Sturtz

Olle Alsing - Jack Dougherty
Maxime Lajoie - Lassi Thomson
Andreas Englund - Jacob Bernard-Docker
Jonathan Aspirot

Joe Daccord
Filip Gustavsson
Kevin Mandolese to ECHL
loan Mads Sogaard to a lower European pro league, where he'll get starts

Play the Tierney line a lot early in the year. Over the course of the season, as prospects develop and players gain value, trade Duclair, Tierney, Anisimov and Boro throughout the year for picks and prospects who can help the AHL team short-term, as Lundell and Formenton will go up to replace them. This moves Balcers up to the third line and Batherson as high as second line, bumping Ryan to third.

After there is no Cup awarded this year, St. Louis will want to keep the core together and keep trying. Pietrangelo will cost them at least 10 million. 7.5 for Schwartz, 7 for Binnington, 5.5 for Dunn, 3.5 for Sanford. And I think I'm being conservative on some of those. Depending where the cap goes, but even assuming 85 million for 2021/'22, that leaves St, Louis with 10 million to finish their roster. Depending on the season he has next year Thomas might cost 6 or 7 million, which would leave very little to fill out 6 or 7 remaining spots. The Blues want to keep their core together and keep going after Cups. Sens offer something like Connor Brown, (an ideal third line center with two years left on a decent contract), Rudolfs Balcers , JBD/Thomson and another decent pick or prospect for Robert Thomas. Maybe we can give Seattle a pick or prospect to take Bobby Ryan, but most likely they take a goalie. Draft Brandt Clark with a top 5 pick. Go into 2021/'22 with:

Tkachuk - Norris - Thomas
Lafreniere - Lundell - Batherson
Formenton - White - Ryan
Paul - Chlapik - Davidsson

Chabot - Cernak
Brannstrom - Zaitsev
Wolanin - Clarke

AHL:

Gruden - Pinto - Sokolov
Nurmi - Kelly - Abramov
Crookshank - Kastelic - Mercer
Novak - Lodin - Wilkie

Alsing - Jaros
Lajoie - Thomas
Tychonik - Guenette

That's assuming all of the prospects turn out decently. I'm sure some will need to be filled with AHL signings.

[Josh]

I did the sim on Tankathon and got 3rd and 5th.

I take Stutzle and Raymond, then Jan Mysak 21st.
I ride out the contracts of any negative-value players and let them walk.
I trade a lot of other players away for picks.
I trade more players, and all of my non-first-round picks, to St. Louis, Vancouver, and Arizona for Parayko, Boeser, and Chychrun.
Traded: Anthony Duclair, Chris Tierney, Colin White, Connor Brown, Filip Chlapik, Jayce Hawrlyuk, Markus Nurmi, Nick Paul, Rudolfs Balcers, Christian Wolanin, Jonny Tychonick, Max Lajoie, Nikita Zaitsev.

A few years down the road:

Brady Tkachuk - Tim Stutzle - Lucas Raymond
Jan Mysak - Josh Norris - Brock Boeser
Alex Formenton - Logan Brown - Drake Batherson
Jonathan Gruden - Shane Pinto - Vitali Abramov

Thomas Chabot - Colton Parayko
Erik Brannstrom - Jacob Bernard-Docker
Jakob Chychrun - Lassi Thomson

Call-ups:
LW - Jakov Novak
C - Parker Kelly
RW - Jonathan Davidsson
LD - Olle Alsing
RD - Christian Jaros

[Josh]

So Ottawa picks 3rd and 5th, just like my sim. Stutzle and and Raymond?!

[matchesmalone]

Stützle and Raymond would be the dream in my opinion. Byfield would be a nice consolation is Stützle is off the board. So far my expectation is that L.A. will take Stützle.

[Josh]

Really eh? I see them going with Byfield, in part because they've already got Turcotte and Kupari who bring some similar elements to Stutzle, but mostly because none of the three could be considered replacements for Kopitar. Byfield, however, seems like a natural replacement for him.

[matchesmalone]

Really eh? I see them going with Byfield, in part because they've already got Turcotte and Kupari who bring some similar elements to Stutzle, but mostly because none of the three could be considered replacements for Kopitar. Byfield, however, seems like a natural replacement for him.

Yeah that's reasonable. Im not sure I even really have a good reason for thinking they'll pick Stützle.
I guess I just think Stützle is the consensus #2 pick at this point. It was Byfield early in the year, but Stützle has been flying up the charts and is now #2 on some pretty respectable lists. Meanwhile Byfield is 4th on ISS, and two scouts on Bob McKenzie's rankings have him 6th. Personally I wouldn't be that shocked to see Byfield fall a spot or two. Any of Drysdale, Sanderson or Raymond could conceivably sneak in ahead of him.

[Josh]

Do you think Sanderson might be a better player than Drysdale? It's too bad Sanderson plays the left side, because I'd see him as a perfect partner for Chabot otherwise.

[matchesmalone]

Do you think Sanderson might be a better player than Drysdale? It's too bad Sanderson plays the left side, because I'd see him as a perfect partner for Chabot otherwise.

Most definitely I think there's a chance. I've been a huge Sanderson fan since I started seeing him play against college teams last fall. Proud to say I had him as high as 12th and thought he was a top ten candidate since the start of December, when most rankings barely considered him for top 20. U18 Five Nations was the first time I started to think he might actually be better than Drysdale.

To me Drysdale vs. Sanderson is a coin toss right now. Lately I've been breaking defensemen down into five categories:

Defense - transition: Sanderson gets a slight edge here. Both are fantastic skaters in all directions with beautiful edgework. Drysdale is slicker on his edges, but I believe Sanderson has better defensive instincts and will be able to play the body better in the NHL.

Defense - zone: Sanderson gets a significant edge here primarily because he's going to be able to handle bigger forwards much better physically around the net and in the corners.

Transition - zone exits: Drysdale has a slight to significant edge here. Both have exceptional patience, awareness and poise to be able to escape danger and release pressure, but Drysdale has an added element of creativity. Combined with his unreal agility allows him to weasel his way out of the most impossible situations.

Transition - zone entry: Sanderson has a slight to significant edge here. Sanderson is the most powerful skating defenseman in the draft when he gets to full speed, and his ability to change direction and use his skating deceptively at full speed is very rare.

Offensive zone: Drysdale has a significant edge here. Sanderson will likely be a powerplay option at the NHL level, but Drysdale is going to be a PP specialist. His agility and allows him to walk the line masterfully, and his creativity allows him to find and execute plays that most defenseman would never see, let alone think to try or be able to execute.

The way the game is going these smallish, dynamic-skating defensemen like Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar and Drysdale are becoming incredibly valuable. But teams can only have six (maybe seven) defensemen in the lineup, so a defenseman who can log big minutes in all situations, including head-to-head with opponents' top players is never going out of style. If you forced my hand, I'd probably lean to Sanderson over Drysdale, but that's just personal choice.

[Josh]

Nice, thanks for sharing this analysis man. Seems indeed like the first team to choose between one of these defensemen should take him based on team needs.

In Ottawa's case, if you had to project Drysdale vs Bernard-Docker, who ends up the more valuable defenseman?

[matchesmalone]

Most likely Drysdale. Drysdale is a top ten talent, while JBD was a late first rounder. Granted, Bernard-Docker has made significant strides since being drafted, but he's only now just a little ways ahead of where Drysdale already is.

Look at them from World Juniors last year; they were two of Canada's best defensemen. Drysdale was sheltered at times because of course he's younger, smaller and inexperienced defensively, but he is already the better offensive presence. Probably second best on the team behind Bowen Byram. Just the way he can use his agility and change of direction to weave around the offensive zone is something many NHL defensemen will never be capable of.