General Sens Talk - Part III

[Josh]

Ahh yeah, good point, I totally forgot about the World Juniors. In that case, I suppose for Ottawa's future, option A (Drysdale) looks better than option B (Sanderson), for Ottawa's needs, if they do go with a defenseman with the 5th pick:

Option A
Thomas Chabot - Jamie Drysdale
Erik Brannstrom - Jacob Bernard-Docker
??? - Lassi Thomson

Option B
Thomas Chabot - Jacob Bernard-Docker
Jake Sanderson - Lassi Thomson
Erik Brannstrom - ???

I trust the potential of Drysdale RD1 and Brannstrom LD2 more than I do JBD RD1 and Thomson RD2.

Would you also have Sanderson's potential between Chabot's and Brannstrom's?

[matchesmalone]

Ahh yeah, good point, I totally forgot about the World Juniors. In that case, I suppose for Ottawa's future, option A (Drysdale) looks better than option B (Sanderson), for Ottawa's needs, if they do go with a defenseman with the 5th pick:

Option A
Thomas Chabot - Jamie Drysdale
Erik Brannstrom - Jacob Bernard-Docker
??? - Lassi Thomson

Option B
Thomas Chabot - Jacob Bernard-Docker
Jake Sanderson - Lassi Thomson
Erik Brannstrom - ???

I trust the potential of Drysdale RD1 and Brannstrom LD2 more than I do JBD RD1 and Thomson RD2.

Would you also have Sanderson's potential between Chabot's and Brannstrom's?

Option A scare the hell out of me. That's a very small defense in stature. Ideally, we pick forwards at 5 and 3, and use the Isles first, Logan Brown/Erik Brännström + to get Sergachev.

But yeah I suppose I'd put Sanderson ahead of Brännström. Certainly whichever two players we pick in the top 5 will become our top two prospects.

[Josh]

Option A scare the hell out of me. That's a very small defense in stature. Ideally, we pick forwards at 5 and 3, and use the Isles first, Logan Brown/Erik Brännström + to get Sergachev.

But yeah I suppose I'd put Sanderson ahead of Brännström. Certainly whichever two players we pick in the top 5 will become our top two prospects.

I can understand that for sure. I’d prefer two forwards as well. I’d much rather target Parayko on the right side than Sergachev on the left, though. JBD doesn’t seem like a first-pair guy, nor Brannstrom a bottom pair guy (and I’d like to hang on to him), so getting a clear-cut RD1 should be the top priority on the backend.

[Josh]

Duclair + White + Zaitsev + 2nd + 2nd + 2nd for Parayko?

[matchesmalone]

Duclair + White + Zaitsev + 2nd + 2nd + 2nd for Parayko?

Haha dude, that's a total EA Sports trade: overwhelming quantity of mediocre value in exchange for quality. Despite the cap crunch these teams are facing, I'm certain there's gonna have to be at least one serious pieces involved.

But my main problem is Parayko is 27. He'll be 29 by the time we're competitive. I mean it could still be worth it if the price is right, but it means we have only one window to win with him as a core piece. Sergachev is still only 22, and Ekblad is just 24. Sergachev is perfectly capable playing the right side from what I understand. And besides, I prefer keeping your top two defensemen separate, so that one is almost always on the ice, rather than playing them together.

I've been thinking Isles 1st, Logan Brown/Erik Brännström + for Sergachev or Ekblad. Trade Logan Brown if we're drafting Byfield, or trade Brännström if we're drafting Sanderson/Drysdale.

[Josh]

I know you're supposed to go BPA, but I think Ottawa should target a C and a RW.

If LA takes Byfield:
Stutzle +
Gunler / Hotlz / Raymond / Quinn

If LA takes Stutzle:
Byfield / Perfetti / Rossi +
Gunler / Hotlz / Raymond / Quinn

[Josh]

Tim Stützle is an Ottawa Senator!!

[Josh]

Well I really can't complain about any of the picks so far. Coming up, Ottawa will have a chance to draft one of Noel Gunler or Jan Mysak with the 33rd pick. I'll be really stoked if that happens.

Then they've got picks 52, 59, 61, 64, and 71 where they should be able to find some good value. If any of Helge Grans, Jeremie Poirier, or Vasili Ponomaryov fall that far, you have to hope the Sens snatch them. Otherwise, my targets with those 5 picks would be Lukas Cormier, Luke Evangelista, Ryan O'Rourke, Topi Niemelä, and Ty Smilanic.

Kevin, you do have me really intrigued by Stranges though. It's gonna be fun to watch him develop to see how right you were about him.

[matchesmalone]

Personally, I have Smilanic and Peterka left on my list ahead of Mysak or Gunler. I'd be happy with any of them at 33 though.

After that the next few on my list are William Wallinder, Jeremie Poirier, Vasili Ponomaryov, Dylan Peterson, Thomas Bordeleau.

[Josh]

The 52nd pick just got packaged with Gruden to the Pens for Matt Murray!

[matchesmalone]

Great trade by Dorion. This is a 26 year old two-time Stanley Cup winner. If he can get his career back on track this could be an enormous steal. But even if not, it's not like we gave up the farm.

[Matt the Aussie]

Agreed, this is an amazing trade. Essentially a free swing on a 2 time champion goalie. He will certainly have a chance to prove his doubters wrong after a sub-par year.

[matchesmalone]

I just remembered I did these posts with my expectations for Sens' prospects this past season. Figured I'd see how they lived up.

Brannstrom and Logan Brown will at least get some long looks I'm sure. I said before I'd start to worry if Brown doesn't get upwards of 30 games, but on second thought, I'd be quite worried. He needs to see at least 30+ NHL games, and should do a point per game at the AHL level. For Brannstrom I'd like to see at least .75 in the AHL, and upwards of 30 NHL games would be nice, but I'm not as worried about it as with Brown.

Brown didn't get his 30 games, but I'm not sure what to make of it. I honestly didn't watch a ton of Sens games last year (busy watching junior and Europe), but Brown's analytics are solid (although very sheltered). He did break a p/g in the AHL though. Brannstrom was around .85 p/g, and he did play 30+, but he was the one who probably should have had more time in the AHL; I guess the Wolanin injury threw a wrench in the works.

I'd like to see Abramov up near a point per game and be a catalyst on the PP. Chlapik needs to show he has the skillset to be a significant offensive threat at this level and to contribute in all situations. Would be great to see Formenton over .75 p/g but also playing a checking/energy role and contributing on the PK.

Chlapik and Abramov were passed over by younger, better prospects and didn't quite meet expectations. Don't think we can quite call Abramov's .80 "up near a point per game". Formenton was around .87 p/g - well above expectations.

Looking across the pond, there are likely four defensemen on Ilves who will start ahead of Lassi Thomson on the depth chart, but they're short on the right side so he'll get plenty of opportunity and no reason he can't be the third overall minute defenseman and second or third powerplay option by season's end. Would be surprising to see him pass Laaksonen for the top pair right spot though. 20-25 points is more than reasonable expectations. And unless something goes wrong, Finland's top pair for WJHCs is all but set as Heinola-Thomson.

After a strong start, Thomson slowed down (and I believe had an injury?), and finished with just 13 points in 39 games. He did have a pretty good showing at WJC though, and he was indeed Finland's most used defenseman, averaging 17:11 per game vs. Heinola's 16:53.

At UND, Bernard-Docker is locked in as the number one defenseman by now, and should be a leader on both special teams and in all situations. 30+ points isn't outside the realm of possibility, but 25 would be a safe bet. He should be a lock for Team Canada, but gonna be very tough competition for a top four position, as always.

Tychonick should have no problem beating out Casey Johnson for the third pair LD, but he's likely stuck there behind Poolman and Kiersted all year, barring injuries. We should be satisfied with 10-15 points and hope for a big breakout in his junior year.

Their top two center positions look set, but there are holes on the wings. Thanks to Pinto's versatility, he'll be able to move between a wing in the top six, and centering the third line. He should have a legitimate shot at a bottom role for USA Hockey. He's obviously behind Turcotte, Zegras and Drury at center. His main competition for a spot will be from Beecher, Wise and Moynihan.

What do you know, JBD with 25 points on the nose, and he was Canada's second most used defenseman (18:58) after Bowen Byram (19:37) and ahead of Ty Smith (17:28).

Tychonick was indeed in the 10-15 point range (11), but it wasn't enough for UND management, who recruited Kleven and Sanderson from NTDP, effectively pushing Tychonick out.

Pinto obviously behind Turcotte, Zegras and Drury at center? Kevin, you idiot. Pinto's 18:05 per game was first among centers (ahead of Drury's 17:44) and second on the team among forwards only to Nicholas Robertson (18:16).

Looks like Crookshank is set to be the man for UNH in all situations. Will be fantastic for his development, but not much offensive support so 25-30 points would be a win.

He finished with 22 points, but his goal total was up from 10 to 16.

[matchesmalone]

My 2020/21 Top 20 Sens Prospects, with last year's ranking in brackets:

1. Tim Stuetzle LW/C (N/A) - Likely a future superstar. Projects as an 18-21 minute forward; possession monster, highlight machine, powerplay specialist. NHL-ready 2020.
2. Jake Sanderson LD (N/A) - Projects as a 23-26 minute workhorse. Will match against top scorers, kill penalties, provide a secondary powerplay option, consistently make controlled zone exits for and disrupt zone entries against. NHL-ready 2021.
3. Drake Batherson RW (2) - Still hasn't shown much at the NHL level, but he's left the AHL in his dust. Projects as a 17-20 minute winger who can play with skilled players or drive a secondary line, and make plays down low on a powerplay. NHL-ready 2020.
4. Erik Brännström LD (1) - Projects as a 22-25 minute defenseman who can control the tempo of the game, make plays out of the hotzone, and run a powerplay. NHL-ready 2020.
5. Josh Norris C (4) - Projects as a 17-20 minute hard-working, intelligent center who can play both special teams and in all situations. NHL-ready 2020.
6. Logan Brown C (3) - Projects as a top-two line center and powerplay specialist, although time is running out to get there. NHL-ready 2020.
7. Jacob Bernard-Docker RD (7) - JBD comes in at number seven for the third year in a row. Projects as a 20-23 minute puck-moving defenseman with secondary PP duties. NHL-ready 2022.
8. Shane Pinto C/RW (12) - Projects as a versatile power forward/grinder who can play center or wing on any of the top three lines. NHL-ready 2022.
9. Roby Jarventie LW (N/A) - Projects as a 15-18 minute power winger. Could be a gamebreaker with his combination of size, skating and goal-scoring ability. NHL-ready 2022.
10. Alex Formenton LW (13) - Projects as a 14-17 minute winger who could play on a PK and checking line, but also contribute offensively. NHL-ready 2021.
11. Ridly Greig LW (N/A) - Projects as a 14-17 minute grinder/agitator with some offensive upside. NHL-ready 2023.
12. Joel Daccord G (18) - Keeps moving up the rankings. Could be the real deal. NHL-ready 2023.
13. Lassi Thomson (6) - He's really been struggling this season. Something is amiss. Still time to get back on track but there is cause for concern. NHL-ready 2023.
14. Mads Søgaard (8) - Didn't blow anyone away with his D+1 season, but he's still a good prospect. We'll see what happens when he turns pro. NHL-ready 2024.
15. Yegor Sokolov RW (N/A) - An intriguing prospect. Needs polishing, but could be a force down low and around the net. NHL-ready 2023.
16. Tyler Kleven LD (N/A) - I'm not the biggest fan of this prospect. But he brings an element that our defense is lacking, so I hope he turns out. NHL-ready 2024.
17. Filip Gustavsson G (5) - He's still very young with a lot of upside. But he needs to turn this momentum around soon. NHL-ready 2024.
18. Vitali Abramov LW (15) - Has some offensive upside, but little margin for error. NHL-ready 2021.
19. Maxence Guenette RD (N/R) - He's putting up real numbers in junior. Could be a late round gem. NHL-ready 2023.
20. Angus Crookshank LW (14) - Projects as a feisty depth winger who can kill penalties, forecheck hard and contribute some offense. NHL-ready 2023.

[Josh]

Looks good to me. Interesting to see the goalies switching places. This season should hopefully provide some clarity on that front.