Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

General Sens Talk - Part III

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Originally posted by Josh View Post
    Duclair + White + Zaitsev + 2nd + 2nd + 2nd for Parayko?
    Haha dude, that's a total EA Sports trade: overwhelming quantity of mediocre value in exchange for quality. Despite the cap crunch these teams are facing, I'm certain there's gonna have to be at least one serious pieces involved.

    But my main problem is Parayko is 27. He'll be 29 by the time we're competitive. I mean it could still be worth it if the price is right, but it means we have only one window to win with him as a core piece. Sergachev is still only 22, and Ekblad is just 24. Sergachev is perfectly capable playing the right side from what I understand. And besides, I prefer keeping your top two defensemen separate, so that one is almost always on the ice, rather than playing them together.

    I've been thinking Isles 1st, Logan Brown/Erik Brännström + for Sergachev or Ekblad. Trade Logan Brown if we're drafting Byfield, or trade Brännström if we're drafting Sanderson/Drysdale.

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    Duclair + White + Zaitsev + 2nd + 2nd + 2nd for Parayko?

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    Originally posted by matchesmalone View Post

    Option A scare the hell out of me. That's a very small defense in stature. Ideally, we pick forwards at 5 and 3, and use the Isles first, Logan Brown/Erik Brännström + to get Sergachev.

    But yeah I suppose I'd put Sanderson ahead of Brännström. Certainly whichever two players we pick in the top 5 will become our top two prospects.
    I can understand that for sure. I’d prefer two forwards as well. I’d much rather target Parayko on the right side than Sergachev on the left, though. JBD doesn’t seem like a first-pair guy, nor Brannstrom a bottom pair guy (and I’d like to hang on to him), so getting a clear-cut RD1 should be the top priority on the backend.

    Leave a comment:


  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Originally posted by Josh View Post
    Ahh yeah, good point, I totally forgot about the World Juniors. In that case, I suppose for Ottawa's future, option A (Drysdale) looks better than option B (Sanderson), for Ottawa's needs, if they do go with a defenseman with the 5th pick:

    Option A
    Thomas Chabot - Jamie Drysdale
    Erik Brannstrom - Jacob Bernard-Docker
    ??? - Lassi Thomson

    Option B
    Thomas Chabot - Jacob Bernard-Docker
    Jake Sanderson - Lassi Thomson
    Erik Brannstrom - ???

    I trust the potential of Drysdale RD1 and Brannstrom LD2 more than I do JBD RD1 and Thomson RD2.

    Would you also have Sanderson's potential between Chabot's and Brannstrom's?
    Option A scare the hell out of me. That's a very small defense in stature. Ideally, we pick forwards at 5 and 3, and use the Isles first, Logan Brown/Erik Brännström + to get Sergachev.

    But yeah I suppose I'd put Sanderson ahead of Brännström. Certainly whichever two players we pick in the top 5 will become our top two prospects.

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    Ahh yeah, good point, I totally forgot about the World Juniors. In that case, I suppose for Ottawa's future, option A (Drysdale) looks better than option B (Sanderson), for Ottawa's needs, if they do go with a defenseman with the 5th pick:

    Option A
    Thomas Chabot - Jamie Drysdale
    Erik Brannstrom - Jacob Bernard-Docker
    ??? - Lassi Thomson

    Option B
    Thomas Chabot - Jacob Bernard-Docker
    Jake Sanderson - Lassi Thomson
    Erik Brannstrom - ???

    I trust the potential of Drysdale RD1 and Brannstrom LD2 more than I do JBD RD1 and Thomson RD2.

    Would you also have Sanderson's potential between Chabot's and Brannstrom's?

    Leave a comment:


  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Most likely Drysdale. Drysdale is a top ten talent, while JBD was a late first rounder. Granted, Bernard-Docker has made significant strides since being drafted, but he's only now just a little ways ahead of where Drysdale already is.

    Look at them from World Juniors last year; they were two of Canada's best defensemen. Drysdale was sheltered at times because of course he's younger, smaller and inexperienced defensively, but he is already the better offensive presence. Probably second best on the team behind Bowen Byram. Just the way he can use his agility and change of direction to weave around the offensive zone is something many NHL defensemen will never be capable of.

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    Nice, thanks for sharing this analysis man. Seems indeed like the first team to choose between one of these defensemen should take him based on team needs.

    In Ottawa's case, if you had to project Drysdale vs Bernard-Docker, who ends up the more valuable defenseman?

    Leave a comment:


  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Originally posted by Josh View Post
    Do you think Sanderson might be a better player than Drysdale? It's too bad Sanderson plays the left side, because I'd see him as a perfect partner for Chabot otherwise.
    Most definitely I think there's a chance. I've been a huge Sanderson fan since I started seeing him play against college teams last fall. Proud to say I had him as high as 12th and thought he was a top ten candidate since the start of December, when most rankings barely considered him for top 20. U18 Five Nations was the first time I started to think he might actually be better than Drysdale.

    To me Drysdale vs. Sanderson is a coin toss right now. Lately I've been breaking defensemen down into five categories:

    Defense - transition: Sanderson gets a slight edge here. Both are fantastic skaters in all directions with beautiful edgework. Drysdale is slicker on his edges, but I believe Sanderson has better defensive instincts and will be able to play the body better in the NHL.

    Defense - zone: Sanderson gets a significant edge here primarily because he's going to be able to handle bigger forwards much better physically around the net and in the corners.

    Transition - zone exits: Drysdale has a slight to significant edge here. Both have exceptional patience, awareness and poise to be able to escape danger and release pressure, but Drysdale has an added element of creativity. Combined with his unreal agility allows him to weasel his way out of the most impossible situations.

    Transition - zone entry: Sanderson has a slight to significant edge here. Sanderson is the most powerful skating defenseman in the draft when he gets to full speed, and his ability to change direction and use his skating deceptively at full speed is very rare.

    Offensive zone: Drysdale has a significant edge here. Sanderson will likely be a powerplay option at the NHL level, but Drysdale is going to be a PP specialist. His agility and allows him to walk the line masterfully, and his creativity allows him to find and execute plays that most defenseman would never see, let alone think to try or be able to execute.

    The way the game is going these smallish, dynamic-skating defensemen like Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar and Drysdale are becoming incredibly valuable. But teams can only have six (maybe seven) defensemen in the lineup, so a defenseman who can log big minutes in all situations, including head-to-head with opponents' top players is never going out of style. If you forced my hand, I'd probably lean to Sanderson over Drysdale, but that's just personal choice.

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    Do you think Sanderson might be a better player than Drysdale? It's too bad Sanderson plays the left side, because I'd see him as a perfect partner for Chabot otherwise.

    Leave a comment:


  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Originally posted by Josh View Post
    Really eh? I see them going with Byfield, in part because they've already got Turcotte and Kupari who bring some similar elements to Stutzle, but mostly because none of the three could be considered replacements for Kopitar. Byfield, however, seems like a natural replacement for him.
    Yeah that's reasonable. Im not sure I even really have a good reason for thinking they'll pick Stützle.
    I guess I just think Stützle is the consensus #2 pick at this point. It was Byfield early in the year, but Stützle has been flying up the charts and is now #2 on some pretty respectable lists. Meanwhile Byfield is 4th on ISS, and two scouts on Bob McKenzie's rankings have him 6th. Personally I wouldn't be that shocked to see Byfield fall a spot or two. Any of Drysdale, Sanderson or Raymond could conceivably sneak in ahead of him.

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    Really eh? I see them going with Byfield, in part because they've already got Turcotte and Kupari who bring some similar elements to Stutzle, but mostly because none of the three could be considered replacements for Kopitar. Byfield, however, seems like a natural replacement for him.

    Leave a comment:


  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Stützle and Raymond would be the dream in my opinion. Byfield would be a nice consolation is Stützle is off the board. So far my expectation is that L.A. will take Stützle.

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    So Ottawa picks 3rd and 5th, just like my sim. Stutzle and and Raymond?!

    Leave a comment:


  • Josh
    replied
    I did the sim on Tankathon and got 3rd and 5th.

    I take Stutzle and Raymond, then Jan Mysak 21st.
    I ride out the contracts of any negative-value players and let them walk.
    I trade a lot of other players away for picks.
    I trade more players, and all of my non-first-round picks, to St. Louis, Vancouver, and Arizona for Parayko, Boeser, and Chychrun.
    Traded: Anthony Duclair, Chris Tierney, Colin White, Connor Brown, Filip Chlapik, Jayce Hawrlyuk, Markus Nurmi, Nick Paul, Rudolfs Balcers, Christian Wolanin, Jonny Tychonick, Max Lajoie, Nikita Zaitsev.

    A few years down the road:

    Brady Tkachuk - Tim Stutzle - Lucas Raymond
    Jan Mysak - Josh Norris - Brock Boeser
    Alex Formenton - Logan Brown - Drake Batherson
    Jonathan Gruden - Shane Pinto - Vitali Abramov

    Thomas Chabot - Colton Parayko
    Erik Brannstrom - Jacob Bernard-Docker
    Jakob Chychrun - Lassi Thomson


    Call-ups:
    LW - Jakov Novak
    C - Parker Kelly
    RW - Jonathan Davidsson
    LD - Olle Alsing
    RD - Christian Jaros

    Leave a comment:


  • matchesmalone
    replied
    Playing around with Tankathon and I picked a random draft order and made an off-season gameplan, continuing from my last summer idea on rebuilding in phases or waves:

    1. Ottawa (from SJS) - Alexis Lafreniere - Dorion has had success from the Q.
    2. Detroit - Tim Stutzle - Yzerman returns to Adler Manheim.
    3. Anaheim - Quinton Byfield - Getzlaf's replacement.

    Sens trade picks 4, 21, 33 to New Jersey for 6 and 10.

    4. New Jersey - Lucas Raymond
    5. L.A. - Jamie Drysdale
    6. Ottawa - Anton Lundell - Head European scout Mikko Ruutu is a big voice in this year's draft. He's close to NHL-ready. Plays the game the way the Sens want to play it.
    7. Buffalo - Marco Rossi
    8. Montreal - Alex Holtz
    9. Chicago - Cole Perfetti
    10. Ottawa - Dawson Mercer - Maritime connection with Trent Mann. Plays a 200 foot game but is also highly crafty offensively.

    Cap will be down next year. That is incredibly valuable to the Sens. At the end of draft day one, Sens have 46, 51, 54, 64, 73, 95. Dorion trades Logan Brown, Mike Reilly to Tampa Bay for Erik Cernak. I was thinking about doing a trade for Sergachev, but he's another LD, and I'd rather wait for summer of 2021 when we're actually trying to compete to make a bigger trade like that.

    46. Ottawa - Luke Evangelista - RS RW, responsible, smart winger, plays well with skilled players; some upside. London connection with Don Boyd.
    51. Ottawa - Cross Hanas - LS LW, high end raw skill, just lanky and not getting a ton of opportunity on a stacked team. Portland connection with Bobby Strumm.
    54. Ottawa - Ruben Rafkin - RS RD, Ruutu would know him from Finland, and we have a strong contingent in the Northeastern States.
    73. Ottawa - Yegor Sokolov RS RW, QMJHL again, maritime connection.
    95. Ottawa - Landon Slaggert - LS C/LW, Dorion has some history drafting from NTDP.
    NCAA and Europe for the late rounds. Maybe a goalie.

    Sign Duclair for one year, C. Brown for three years and Tierney for two. Go into 2020/21 with:

    Anthony Duclair - Chris Tierney - Connor Brown
    Brady Tkachuk - Josh Norris - Bobby Ryan
    Alexis Lafreniere - Colin White - Artem Anisimov
    Rudolfs Balcers - Filip Chlapik - Drake Batherson
    Nick Paul

    Thomas Chabot - Erik Cernak
    Erik Brannstrom - Nikita Zaitsev
    Christian Wolanin - Mark Borowiecki
    Christian Jaros

    AHL:

    Alex Formenton - Anton Lundell - Vitali Abramov
    Michael Carcone - Shane Pinto - Jonathan Davidsson
    Jonathan Gruden - Parker Kelly - Chris Wilkie
    Markus Nurmi - Mark Kastelic - Yegor Sokolov
    Andrew Sturtz

    Olle Alsing - Jack Dougherty
    Maxime Lajoie - Lassi Thomson
    Andreas Englund - Jacob Bernard-Docker
    Jonathan Aspirot

    Joe Daccord
    Filip Gustavsson
    Kevin Mandolese to ECHL
    loan Mads Sogaard to a lower European pro league, where he'll get starts

    Play the Tierney line a lot early in the year. Over the course of the season, as prospects develop and players gain value, trade Duclair, Tierney, Anisimov and Boro throughout the year for picks and prospects who can help the AHL team short-term, as Lundell and Formenton will go up to replace them. This moves Balcers up to the third line and Batherson as high as second line, bumping Ryan to third.

    After there is no Cup awarded this year, St. Louis will want to keep the core together and keep trying. Pietrangelo will cost them at least 10 million. 7.5 for Schwartz, 7 for Binnington, 5.5 for Dunn, 3.5 for Sanford. And I think I'm being conservative on some of those. Depending where the cap goes, but even assuming 85 million for 2021/'22, that leaves St, Louis with 10 million to finish their roster. Depending on the season he has next year Thomas might cost 6 or 7 million, which would leave very little to fill out 6 or 7 remaining spots. The Blues want to keep their core together and keep going after Cups. Sens offer something like Connor Brown, (an ideal third line center with two years left on a decent contract), Rudolfs Balcers , JBD/Thomson and another decent pick or prospect for Robert Thomas. Maybe we can give Seattle a pick or prospect to take Bobby Ryan, but most likely they take a goalie. Draft Brandt Clark with a top 5 pick. Go into 2021/'22 with:

    Tkachuk - Norris - Thomas
    Lafreniere - Lundell - Batherson
    Formenton - White - Ryan
    Paul - Chlapik - Davidsson

    Chabot - Cernak
    Brannstrom - Zaitsev
    Wolanin - Clarke

    AHL:

    Gruden - Pinto - Sokolov
    Nurmi - Kelly - Abramov
    Crookshank - Kastelic - Mercer
    Novak - Lodin - Wilkie

    Alsing - Jaros
    Lajoie - Thomas
    Tychonik - Guenette

    That's assuming all of the prospects turn out decently. I'm sure some will need to be filled with AHL signings.
    Last edited by matchesmalone; 03-16-2020, 01:42 PM.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X