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That was an ugly loss. 5-2 Caps
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I think it's pretty funny how badly people are spazzing out online about the losing streak. I mean yeah it sucks to watch but it's sports? Literally every season every team in every league of every sport will have its rough patches ('96 Bulls excluded). Wouldn't people rather this happen now and not in February or March? I could go on quite a rant about why this isn't nearly as bad as people are making it seem. And I probably will. -
I don't mind my team losing, as long as they put in the effort. They didn't last night. They mailed that one in.Comment
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And I agree that the prerogative of fans is to be upset if the product they pay for is lackluster. I think what gets me is when fans buy into the negativity manufactured by the media. I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with the big-picture Sens. Winning three of your last ten games is never a good look and I get that. Compared to what this fanbase has endured in the past though, this is a blip on the radar.Originally posted by Jasmine View PostComment
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Good points Owen. And yeah, I’d much rather this happen before the AS break as opposed to after. I’m just hoping to see Duchene get going.Comment
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No doubt. What if I told you however, that Duchene is top thirty in the league in scoring-chances-for since coming to Ottawa. As a matter of fact, both Duchene AND Brassard are top thirty (and that includes high difficulty scoring-chances-for). I'll take my top two centres on that list any day.Originally posted by Josh View PostComment
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Things are pretty messy right now, but I'm sure it'll change soon. The low-point of last nights game was the atrocious 5-on-3 late in the second period. Ottawa would have still been two goals down, but two goals instead of three goals going into the third is a pretty big difference. But, like Owen said, the team is in a slump and people will overreact.
I'm not worried at all about Duchene, honestly. He looks good out there and the advanced stats back it up. I am worried about the teams goaltending, and the powerplay.Comment
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So here are some thoughts in no particular order:
On goaltending:
Mike Condon is fine I guess? He makes more money than a backup should and he's no hamburglar although he stays healthy and that's a plus. I'm more interested in Drieger, Hogberg, Daccord and I'm glad they're all getting lots of time to develop. Backups is backups.
I'm hoping Andy is healthy. He's down three percentage points from last year and more than one standard deviation from his career average so we can bank on him turning the corner this season as long as he's not injured. Even with aging curve he should be putting up better numbers than he is right now especially with Boucher's system. This is the silver lining Ottawa fans should be looking at. Ottawa's adjusted 5V5 save% is worst in the league right now so if Andy finds his groove then the team can turn it around.
The powerplay is getting a lot of ink right now and I get it. My philosophy has always been that the man advantage is the metaphorical icing on the hockey cake. It's great but it's the last thing I worry about. Boucher seems like the type of guy who builds his team front the d-zone forward so I assume he prioritizes powerplays as little as I do.
The penalty kill, as much as I rag on it, enjoys the weird Boucher effect of high quantity with low quality against. This is one area where I find Ottawa's goalies have done a good job. Sens just gotta keep everything to the perimeter and this can work. I know Zack Smith's absence really affects this. In my mind Dumont is coming in specifically for the PK. Ditto the waiving on Dido (pun intended) and the callup of Paul. Dumont and Paul will be on the PK while Smith is injured. Dido never got ice time short-handed. Also Ottawa has been good at not taking a lot of penalties.
On the Duchene trade:
I know Kevin has posted a bit about how good Ducehene has looked. I can't say enough about him so far. His shot metrics have been great and the team as a whole has gotten better since the trade. It’s a small sample size against weird opponents without many actual goals I know and I'm not making excuses for the guy but he has to carry around Bobby Ryan and he's had to do it against Murray, Lundqvist, and Holtby so maybe some more patience is in order. Things won’t get any easier against goalie Bob on Friday so let’s just say Ottawa scores 8 against the Isles on Saturday (and also loses 8-9).
On making excuses:
Injuries: the great equalizer. They seem to have equalized Ottawa a lot so far. Remember how Ottawa was hovering around .500 when Karlsson was rehabbing? The internet seems to have forgotten. I can’t emphasize enough how much it sucks to lose Wideman for the season potentially. And Boro was actually contributing positively before he got concussed. The third pairing is now maybe sometimes Oduya and Harpur. Yeesh! That’s maybe actually even worse than Phaneuf and Ceci! I know right! Oduya is terrible. Harpur I have no idea. Ceci is beyond words. As much as I rag on Bobby Ryan, I missed him and I have faith in him when Duchene is out there. As I mentioned, the team REALLY needs Zack Smith to be that defensive forward along with Pageau. Also Nate Thompson is bad.
Sweden: Was it bad? People think so! I can’t verify one way or the other but the team is losing so fuck you Sweden!
On Fancy Stats: Not everyone shares my interest in them and I would never attempt to convert anyone. However, I am extremely excited that for the first time in a decade, Ottawa is not the worst team in hockey according to fancy stats! Ottawa is leading the league in 5V5 sva gxf% in the Duchene era! It may not mean anything to most people so let me just say it’s a good thing. Ottawa is doing things that tend to play out well over time (out-chancing their opponents when it matters) while currently not doing the thing that is most unpredictable (scoring timely goals and getting timely saves). Ottawa is in that reverse-Jack-Adams nexus where you often find teams like Carolina, Boston, and Los Angeles. There is a very real possibility that Ottawa shooting and goaltending don’t regress and that they just never win again. However, with what we know about Craig Anderson and about Karlsson-Stone-Hoffman-Brassard-Duchene-Ryan-Dzingel etc. we should be optimistic about the universe balancing out in Ottawa’s favour. Isn’t it sooooo weird to be losing games you deserve to win instead of winning games you deserve to lose?!? Also this could just be a statistical aberration and maybe Ottawa is bad at everything and then life has no meaning.
On losing ground in the standings:
We can go ahead and pencil in Tampa for the division title and Metro teams for the wild cards so that leaves two spots for Ottawa, Toronto, Boston, Detroit, Montreal. I'll take those odds for Ottawa. It should only take 90 points to make that cut so yeah--if Ottawa doesn't crack 90 points then we have a lot more to worry about.
Boucher does weird things and in cases like last night he gets out-coached cos the home coach knows to match up Ovechkin against Phaneuf-Ceci and Ottawa loses cos those two really need to be separated (although Oduya-Harpur doesn’t help). For the most part I think we are starting to see the benefits of Boucher’s system in the form of positive shot-attempt-differential (at least at even strength) and he has run decent special teams in the past. Considering the coaches that preceded him, he’s great for Ottawa and it’s not his fault Ottawa’s had so many prospects go bust that now all of our draft picks have to stay in the AHL until they’re 26. He doesn’t have a tonne of depth to work with especially when Smith and Wideman are injured and I can’t see a way to replace those guys internally. I think there are good great defenders on the farm team but none who can assume the role that Ceci is failing at so terribly.
Dorion is fine. He takes a lot of shit. I hate the Burrows trade and sign still. And yet this team was one goal away from the Cup finals so with the space time continuum being what it is I have to accept the loss of Dahlen as matter of course. I don’t like Oduya or Thompson that much but someone has to get dummied by the other team’s top line and I guess it shouldn’t be our best prospects. Last year down the stretch and into the playoffs the coach and GM did a good job of getting Neil and Kelly off the ice when it mattered most. Fingers crossed that they’re just riding this year’s pylons during the tedium of the season and that they’ll get down to business in the spring. Who fucking knows anymore.
Further reading:
Last edited by thedaigle1; 11-23-2017, 03:31 PM.Comment
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Good post, Owen. I'd like to learn more about advanced stats. I have a little understanding, but it seems like you're very familiar with them.
I gotta say, though, watching the power play is painful. Perhaps you're correct that it is the metaphorical icing on the cake, but it's getting tiring seeing a wasted two minutes and the loss of momentum.Comment
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And when I say the power play is the last thing I would implement, I still think it should be ready in time for the regular season ;P The fuck were they doing during training camp besides getting hammered at Phaneuf's house in PEI?Originally posted by Alfie11 View Post
EDIT: Claesson looking like a healthy scratch tonight. Not Ceci, Oduya, or Harpur. So yeah, I rescind all the positive things I said about this team. Go baseball!Last edited by thedaigle1; 11-24-2017, 11:51 AM.Comment
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It's stupid, IMO. Claesson looks like a top four defensemen to me ... not quite as good defensively as Methot but more offensive upside. He made a mistake in Washington that led to a GA, but so did Ceci.Originally posted by thedaigle1 View PostComment
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I logged onto Twitter and saw Dido claimed by Tampa. It followed with a sky-is-falling reaction that we lost a Dido-for-Dumont deal.Comment
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Now if only we could do the exact same thing with Ceci and Dotchin.Originally posted by Alfie11 View PostComment
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