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Sweden is going to be my pick for gold this year. Elias Pettersson is the best prospect outside of North America right now, perhaps the best prospect in the game, and I expect that he will own this tournament this year. As I've mentioned once before, his 41 points in 43 games last year was the best ever per game total by a draft-eligible player since the inception of the Swedish Allsvenskan league in its modern format, in 1999. Notable players with less points per game in Allsvenskan in their draft years than Pettersson's .95 last year include David Pastrnak (.67), William Nylander (.77) Filip Forsberg (.87) and Alex Wennberg (.70). Now, he's moved on to SHL this year, where he is leading the league with a rather astonishing 35 points in 25 games, for 1.4 points per game. This time, I went back 30 years, to 1986/7, and no under-20 player has touched 1.4 points per game. Some notable comparables include William Nylander (20 in 21 = .95), Nicklas Backstrom (40 in 45 = .85), Henrik (47 in 50 = .94) and Daniel (45 in 50 = .90) Sedin, Peter Forsberg ( 48 in 39 for 1.23), Markus Naslund (39 in 39 = 1.00) and Michael Nylander (28 in 40 = .70). This kid is a phenom.
Sweden might end up being quite a young team, featuring as many as four under-aged players., and while they may not have as many first rounders as USA or Canada, they look to have a bunch of 1st and 2nd round picks littered throughout their roster, especially on defense, which just wasn't the case for Sweden 10 or 20 years ago. With a forward group led by Pettersson and Alex Nylander, and also featuring 2017 eighth overall pick, Lias Anderson, and likely 2018 first rounder, Isac Lundestrom, and with a defense led by the dynamic 17 year-old prodigy Rasmus Dahlin, the Swedes could and should sport an explosive offense in this year's tournament. And again, after Dahlin most of their defensemen are first or second round NHL picks, and their expected starting goaltender, Filip Gustavsson, is a 19 year-old second round pick by Pittsburgh - so don't expect them to give up a ton of goals either. My ranking: 1st.
Finland continues to look like a team on the rise. I remember saying after their first gold in 2014 that they might have to start to be talked about with the big four perennial contenders in this tournament, and now with two golds in the past four years, and a flood of high first round draft picks, it is safe to call it a big five. This year they'll be led by a pair of elite blueliners in Olli Juolevi (2016 5th overall) and Miro Heiskanen (2017 3rd overall), and beyond that, they have three more defenseman picked in the first round in 2017. That's a defense core with the potential to rival even some of Canada's from their glory years. If they manage to get Puljujarvi from the Oilers, that would be huge for their offense and their overall chances, but that seems extremely unlikely, so as is their offense would have to be led by 2016 Carolina second rounder Janne Kuokannen, 2017 Nashville first rounder Eeli Tolvanen and 2017 Florida second rounder Aleksei Heponiemi, currently leading the WHL in scoring for Swift Current. Like Sweden, Finland will be chalk-full of first and second round picks, a very new concept to them. But some things never change, and as always, they will be backed by elite goaltending, this year by 2017 Buffalo second round pick Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. My ranking: 3rd.
Sweden might end up being quite a young team, featuring as many as four under-aged players., and while they may not have as many first rounders as USA or Canada, they look to have a bunch of 1st and 2nd round picks littered throughout their roster, especially on defense, which just wasn't the case for Sweden 10 or 20 years ago. With a forward group led by Pettersson and Alex Nylander, and also featuring 2017 eighth overall pick, Lias Anderson, and likely 2018 first rounder, Isac Lundestrom, and with a defense led by the dynamic 17 year-old prodigy Rasmus Dahlin, the Swedes could and should sport an explosive offense in this year's tournament. And again, after Dahlin most of their defensemen are first or second round NHL picks, and their expected starting goaltender, Filip Gustavsson, is a 19 year-old second round pick by Pittsburgh - so don't expect them to give up a ton of goals either. My ranking: 1st.
Finland continues to look like a team on the rise. I remember saying after their first gold in 2014 that they might have to start to be talked about with the big four perennial contenders in this tournament, and now with two golds in the past four years, and a flood of high first round draft picks, it is safe to call it a big five. This year they'll be led by a pair of elite blueliners in Olli Juolevi (2016 5th overall) and Miro Heiskanen (2017 3rd overall), and beyond that, they have three more defenseman picked in the first round in 2017. That's a defense core with the potential to rival even some of Canada's from their glory years. If they manage to get Puljujarvi from the Oilers, that would be huge for their offense and their overall chances, but that seems extremely unlikely, so as is their offense would have to be led by 2016 Carolina second rounder Janne Kuokannen, 2017 Nashville first rounder Eeli Tolvanen and 2017 Florida second rounder Aleksei Heponiemi, currently leading the WHL in scoring for Swift Current. Like Sweden, Finland will be chalk-full of first and second round picks, a very new concept to them. But some things never change, and as always, they will be backed by elite goaltending, this year by 2017 Buffalo second round pick Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. My ranking: 3rd.
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