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**Matt the Aussie** · 05-30-2019, 08:26 AM

One thing that intrigues me is, how do you have a performance review with a scout? Do you have to wait 5 years before even really assessing what they've done? What if they started off terribly but then picked some great players that only mature once you let them go? Perhaps you rely on Mann as head scout to keep the others in line?

**Josh** · 05-30-2019, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by matchesmalone View Post

Ok here we go. Ten years in the making, since I started learning about and keeping track of scouts, sporadically, usually at times when the Sens are in bad need of good scouting. This time I'll try to update annually.

First thing I gotta point point out, at least with the drastic salary dump, the organization has thrown a bunch of money at scouts. The scouting staff is bigger currently than I've ever seen the Sens'. Three guys in Europe now!

So basically my strategy was to find every possible post-draft team media, and they typically interview the scouts of a given region about the players drafted from that region. Sometimes you can find a head scout or GM give credit to a certain scout for pushing for a player. Any instances of these I give full credit to the scout.

In the second part I just go over the remaining players from recent drafts, and look at who manages their area. So the first part is more reliable, but I still think there is some value to the more speculative data. In a court of law circumstantial evidence adds up.

The scouts

Veteran:

Trent Mann - Chief Scout, former goaltender, formerly in charge of QMJHL, and oversaw scouting of goaltenders, so best believe he was in on Kevin Mandolese (2018 sixth) and Francois Brassard (2012 sixth). He also shares primary credit for Batherson (2017 fourth) with Don Boyd. See later: Chabot.

George Fargher - WHL, BCHL - He was specifically involved in Jared Cowen and Curtis Lazar, but I don't pay too much attention to first rounders. The DPPs and head scouts, and the scouting staff as a whole, are all involved in the first rounders (although one guy can have a big impact, see: Anders Forsberg 2008 through 2010) More recently Fargher was involved in Maxime Lajoie (2016 fifth), Chris Driedger (2012 third) and Johnny Tychonick (2018 second, did not have a strong NCAA freshman year).

Mikko Ruutu - Chief European scout - The only two I've found him directly responsible for are Christian Jaros (2015 fifth) and Markus Nurmi (2016 sixth) but he'll feature prominently in part II.

Don Boyd - Looks like he covers Ontario and Quebec - The only picks I've been able to attribute to him directly were Drake Batherson (2017 fourth) and Gabriel Gagne (2015 2nd).

Bob Janecyk - USHL, NAHL, USNDP, USHS - This guy has been there forever and has credits like a film producer, not always great, but we'll see in part II probably why he has stuck around so long. 2018 picks Johnny Gruden (fourth) and Jakov Novak (seventh) had solid freshmen seasons. Todd Burgess (2016 fourth) just played his third NCAA season, did ok. Tim Boyle (2012 fourth) was the utmost flop; in my research I came across an old post I made where I'd said "we need to find out who is responsible for Tim Boyle so they can be held accountable". Robbie Baillargeon (2012 fifth) and Miles Gendron (2014 third) are total flops. Max McCormick (2011 sixth) played 71 NHL games. Ryan Dzingel is his most successful late pick, in the seventh round in 2011

Summer 2017 hires:

Steve Stirling - Retired from a long coaching career then as an assistant in Binghamton, to become head of NCAA recruiting. So if I'm to understand that role, give credit to him for Max Veronneau, and he was probably strongly involved in scouting Brady Tkachuk.

Bobby Strum - WHL, BCHL - Given credit for Angus Crookshank (2018 fifth), Crookshank is easily the biggest rise in stock (best return on investment) of our 2018 crop so far.

Dan Boeser - US Midwest - Luke Loheit (2018 seventh) had a particularly uninspiring post-draft season.

Todd Stirling - US Northeast - May have had some say on Gruden and Novak.

Anders Ã–stberg - Europe - Could get partial credit for all of the none Europeans the Sens drafted last year.

Summer 2018 hires:

Christian De Blois - Quebec, Maritimes
Petr Havluj - Europe
Kyle Flanagan - Quebec, Ontario, NCAA

Part II

2018 - All picks have been accounted for except Bernard-Docker. Probably mainly Don Boyd and chief scout Trent Mann.

2017 - Late first rounder Shane Bowers was Bob Janecyk's territory.

Alex Formenton (second) - Don Boyd was the only full-time scout concentrated in Ontario at the time, and not to mention he is apparently based out of London.

Jordan Hollet (sixth) - Out of the dub, this would be Fargher's guy.

2016 - Logan Brown (eleventh overall) was Don Boyd's territory, but of course Dorion and Mann (Lowes at the time) would have seen him themselves. Being in Windsor, probably Janecyk too.

Jonathan Dahlen (second) - Vaclav Burda, no longer with the organization (RIP) was head Euro scout. Other guy over there was Mikko Ruutu, now head Euro scout.

2015 - These first two in the first round seem to be Dorion's signature picks. Bryan Murray had never once in his career drafted directly out of USNDP, and almost never out of the Q, certainly not highly. But then a year before Murray would step down in 2016, comes Chabot and Colin White in the first round. I remember predicting long before most that Dorion would be the next GM.

Thomas Chabot - Presumably Trent Mann had something to do with this pick, which presumably had something to do with his promotion to head scout in 2017.

Colin White - This is Bob Janecyk territory. Also at the time Bill McCarthy (who retired that summer) and Lewis Mongelluzzo (left the organization in 2017).

Filip Chlapik (second) - Ruutu and Burda would have had some say, but probably mostly Mann, Boyd and Dorion).

Christian Wolanin (fourth) - Again, Bob Janecyk territory.

Filip Ahl (fourth) - Ruutu/Burda.

Joey Daccord (seventh) - Probably mostly Janecyk, maybe Mann, McCarthy.

It seems that what is going on for Janecyk is, they trust his judgement, because he rarely misses on high picks, so they give him a bunch of late rounders and hope he'll nail some, but he rarely does. As for Fargher, it would be tough to say how he is still with the team after Cowen and Lazar and some of his recent picks, but he has been a scout for the team since '97, so I'm guessing he has a legacy.

You predicted him as assistant GM all the way back in 2014:

Originally posted by matchesmalone View Post

Re: General Sens Talk

I agree completely about Tim Murray and the Chiarelli comparison. Although Tim was a scout for Bryan in Florida, it wasn't until he was named to an executive position in Anaheim that Bryan Murray's drafting record really took off. With multiple picks in this year's draft, Murray will do great for Buffalo, although as a rookie GM, no matter how well he drafts and develops, if he doesn't deliver results within a few years, they may say, "alright, we're stocked full of prospects, your job is done here" and replace him with someone with more experience who might be more likely to take them to the next level.

As for Pierre Dorion, firstly, I don't think anything should be promised to him until he proves himself at the next level. And as for his becoming the assistant GM, a couple things: first, I'll say I agree he is by some margin the most likely candidate, but, while drafting and developing is always the most important aspect of running a successful franchise, when you get to this stage in your rebuild, you need to be able to make good moves with trades and free-agent signings. Dorion's whole background until just recently when he was named to his current position was in amateur scouting. Lets not forget, Jim Clarke already has experience as an assistant GM in Columbus, and his relationship with Bryan Murray goes back at least to when Clarke was a scout for Murray in Florida. And keep in mind along with Jim Clarke's background as a pro scout, that when he was assistant GM in Columbus, the team always traded and signed quite well, it was just the draft that was continuously the bane of their existence.

So while I think it will most likely be Dorion promoted to assistant GM, and Clarke maybe to director of personnel or something of that ilk, just wanted to throw out a possible alternative, whereby Clarke would become assistant and Dorion would retain his current position. The only other wildcard who might garner some consideration for promotion, just for his success rate in the draft, would be Bob Lowes. Lowes has been directly responsible for both Mark Stone and Zach Smith, and although you can't credit a regional scout for a first round pick, Lazar falls under his jurisdiction as well. He also does crossover in Europe and sees all of the WHL players that come through, so he can get a tiny fraction of credit for the likes of Jared Cowen, Chris Driedger, Erik Karlsson, Robin Lehner and Mika Zibanejad. If Melnyk has the money to throw around on all these promotions, I'd like to see:

Assistant GM- Pierre Dorion
Director of Player Personnel - Jim Clarke
Director of Amateur Scouting - Bob Lowes

**matchesmalone** · 05-31-2019, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by Matt the Aussie View Post

One thing that intrigues me is, how do you have a performance review with a scout? Do you have to wait 5 years before even really assessing what they've done? What if they started off terribly but then picked some great players that only mature once you let them go? Perhaps you rely on Mann as head scout to keep the others in line?

Yeah it is kinda weird. But I dunno, of course it takes at least five, sometimes seven or eight years, to really know what a player is. But picks and prospects are assets with fluid value, and you can often have a good idea after a couple years. Let's just look at some cases.

Tim Boyle. A fourth round pick in 2012. He was drafted at 19, going into his freshman NCAA season. He struggled to make the team and finished with two assists in fifteen games. It was clear by midway through the season that this was a wasted pick. He played the next two seasons in USPHL Premier League and ACHA divII. Huh? But a wasted pick is a wasted pick, no?

What about Max McCormick? 71 NHL games. He contributed minutes. And he's had a decent career as an AHL player. That was a 2011 sixth rounder. Let's not forget the AHL is one of the best leagues in the world in it's own right. Drafting good AHL players brings something to the organization. Was one pick more wasted than the other? Seems so to me. Up until five or six years after drafted, McCormick was still considered a fringe prospect and so full value was still indeterminate, but only took a year to determine it was a better pick than Boyle.

Drake Batherson was another fourth round pick who was passed in the draft once. What's the value of a fourth round pick anyway? Not a whole lot. What was Batherson's value after a massive junior season where he scored a goal a game for Team Canada at WJHC? His value was probably somewhere akin to what you'd expect from at least a second or third round pick. But after this season where he was one of the best players in the AHL at 20... his progression is where you might expect a mid first rounder at 21. So you can see the drastic increase in the value of this asset over just two years.

For the 2018 draft you have Tkachuk on par for a fourth overall. You have Bernard-Docker still looking like an early first to late second rounder.

Jonny Tychonick struggled as a freshman at UND and didn't get to play much. For a sixth or seventh rounder you'd take that as a win for an eighteen year old, but for a second rounder it is worrisome. Johnny Gruden looks about on par for a fourth rounder, a little better maybe.

Fifth rounder Angus Crookshank put up better numbers than Gruden; he could have been a second or third rounder.

Seventh rounder Luke Loheit is not looking good one year in. His 24 points in 43 games in BCHL at 18 was not good. To put that into perspective, Crookshank had better than a point per game in his draft year and was only a fifth round pick. There's plenty of players doing better numbers than that and going undrafted.

**matchesmalone** · 06-02-2019, 04:12 AM

Probably a pipe dream, but I'd love to see Anders Forsberg get a shot at a management position in the Sens organization. For those who forgot, Anders Forsberg was involved with Hockey Sweden for years, working with legendary Red Wings scout Hakan Anderson.

Anderson and Bryan Murray had a close relationship from Murray's time as GM in Detroit, and Forsberg came highly recommended. He joined the Sens' staff in '07 and in '08 the Sens traded up to pick Erik Karlsson, apparently partly based on Forsberg's strong insistence. In 2009 they picked Silfverberg and Lehner in the second and third round.

In 2010 they traded their first rounder for David Rundblad at the draft. Seems like a wasted pick, but no, this is the perfect example of what I was saying about taking a pick and multiplying its value in one season. Forsberg went back to Sweden to take a head coaching position for Rundblad's team Skelleftea, and Rundblad went from 13 to 50 points, being named the SHL defenseman of the year, and many considered him one of the top prospects in the world. Murray was then able to swap Rundblad for Kyle Turris. They also picked Marcus Sorensen that year, who incidentally, strangely enough, finally played his first full NHL season this year at 27.

In Forsberg's first year with Skelleftea, they went from fourth place to losing in the final. They lost in the final again his second year there, before winning it all in his third. He then promptly left his championship team for greater challenges. Coached two uninteresting seasons for Modo before Tim Murray became GM in Buffalo and recruited him in 2015.

There once again, his employer placed tremendous trust in him, picking out of Sweden with their first two picks of the 2016 draft. While it is too early to write off Alex Nylander, he isn't looking terribly promising. But the second rounder, Rasmus Asplund looks like maybe a gem. In 2017, the Sabres took Linus Weissbach and Marcus Davidsson, both of whom are actually looking like pretty good prospects.

But then Murray was fired and Forsberg returned to Sweden where he attained his first head GM job with Mora.

The 2020 draft, where the Sens have a ton of high picks, is incidentally loaded with Swedes. Lucas Raymond and Alexander Holtz look like high first rounders, but then the likes of Zion Nybeck, Helge Grans, Isak Garfv, and Oscar Nilsson will be sprinkled through the first two or three rounds. Then for 2021 there's already a couple bluechip prospects emerging in G Jesper Wallstedt and F Isak Rosen.

Currently the Sens are without a director of player personnel. I'd like to see Trent Mann get that position, and Forsberg take his role as director of amateur scouting.

**matchesmalone** · 06-22-2019, 05:28 PM

Very interesting that Bobby Strumm was the guy that spoke to Sens media about Lassi Thomson, not George Fargher or Mikko Ruutu.

I had a mild expectation this might happen. Strumm is actually named after Bryan Murray - Bobby Bryan Murray Strumm. Son of longtime pro scout Bob Strumm who was apparently very close friends of Bryan Murray. In the early 80s Strumm was GM of the Regina Pats and Murray was the head coach.

After the Sens gave Bobby Strumm his first decision pick in Crookshank, who subsequently exponentiated his value, I figured they might give him more of a say on some higher picks this year, but whoa. Looks like he was probably a key player on both Thomsen and SÃ¸gaard.

This Strumm will be one to watch; something of a prodigy right now, I would bet he has a future higher up in the organization.

**matchesmalone** · 06-25-2019, 05:01 AM

OK so that Strumm interview was the only one up on the Sens website. But there's a draft recap from the Ottawa Citizen with quotes.

Head scout Trent Mann gives the quote on Lassi Thomson, as it should be. A lot of fingers in the pot here. Strumm and Fargher in the Dub, and Mikko Ruutu would know him from Finland.

Janecyk gave the quote for Pinto, of course. Todd Stirling is listed for US Northeast.

The only surprise for me was that Don Boyd did the quote for Mads SÃ¸gaard. But then I remembered he was also a goalie when he played, so probably has a long look at goalies we're considering, especially that high. Makes me even more excited for SÃ¸gaard, as Boyd seems to be consistently our best scout (he was formerly a head scout for Columbus). I'd imagine Fargher was pushing hard for this kid - his Hollet pick looks a lot less bad if the guy Hollet lost his starting job to was just that good. But that's pure speculation. Of course this is also Strumm territory now.

Head European scout Mikko Ruutu gives the quote for Viktor Sodin. Of course the other European scouts get partial credit, particularly the Swede, Ã–stberg.

Fargher did the quote for Kastelic. Not gonna get my hopes up for this player.

Christian De Blois did the quote for Maxence Guenette. Will be a litmus test for De Blois. Of course Boyd and Kyle Flanagan also cover Quebec.

The next step for me, or some tenacious researcher, will be to look back on our scout's scouting records from their previous teams.

I know Strumm scouted for the Portland Winterhawks. He wasn't part of the group that built the dynasty there, but he was part of the group that kept them in contention for years after, despite the forfeited first rounders for their incentives infractions on Seth Jones and others.

**matchesmalone** · 06-25-2019, 05:16 AM

Interesting tidbit: Don Boyd coached for the Pat's under GM Bob Strumm in '83, a couple years after Murray was head coach in '80.

Bob Strumm Sr. was Bryan Murray's first assistant GM, with Detroit in '90/91. Doug McLean also joined them from Washington as assistant coach that year.

Later, in the mid-00s, McLean was head GM in Columbus, while Boyd and Strumm were directors of amateur and pro scouting, respectively.

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