CDCFL San Jose Sharks

[matchesmalone]

Ville Koivunen with another goal today. Up to 4 goals and 6 points in 11 games.

Timur Bilyalov with some pretty absurd numbers through 8 KHL games this year. 1.46 GAA and a.933 SVP.

[matchesmalone]

I did a chart prior to LYL draft. I had read an article from Dobber on "Zero G" draft philosophy. Not picking any goalies until late. Decided to try a variant - just try to wait as long as I can to pick a goalie, and use analytics to grab some steals. The two stats are GVE and QS%. GVE is goals versus expected, i.e. all-situation goals against per 60 (GAA) minus all-situation expected goals against per 60 (XGAA). Anything inside +.25 or .3 is solid. Anything below zero is outstanding. QS% is quality starts, i.e. the percentage of a goalie's starts where he records above the league average SVP.

Goalie name	GVE (past 2 seasons)	QS% ('20/21)
Oettinger (DAL)	+.20	.500
Sorokin (NYI)	-.02	.714
Khudobin (DAL)	+.18	.531
Grubauer (SEA)	+.01	.667
Campbell (TOR)	+.22	.591
Merzlikins (CBJ)	+.24	.609
Samsonov (WSH)	+.31	.389
Nedeljkovic (DET)	-.26	.652
Driedger (SEA)	-.28	.652
Jarry (PIT)	+.24	.632
Kuemper (COL)	-.03	.556
Ullmark (BOS)	+.28	.550
Saros (NSH)	0.00	.629
DeSmith (PIT)	+.04	.529
Mrazek (TOR)	+.01	.583
Hill (SJS)	+.02	.471
Gibson (ANA)	+.29	.429
Shesterkin (NYR)	-.12	.645
Lehner (VGK)	-.04	.632
Hellebuyck (WPG)	-.20	.556
Ranta (CAR)	0.00	.545
Peterson (LAK)	0.00	.500
Demko (VAN)	+.06	.543
Swayman (BOS)	-.40	.900
Varlamov (NYI)	-.06	.743
Stolarz (ANA)	-.24	.714

[matchesmalone]

MacKenzie Blackwood I wanted to take a closer look at. his GVS.
he was +.26 over the past 3 years
in 2018/19 he was -.03
in 2019/20 he was +.22
in 2020/21 he was +.50

+.22 is very respectable, especially for a young goalie. From what I recall last season he was off to a standout season until he and the team got covid and fell apart.

[matchesmalone]

I watched Brandt Clarke today and Eklund last night. Not a strong game for Eklund by any stretch. But it was cool to see he was trying things, playing his game. Was just a little off on his NHL rhythm. Tried to go to work in the corners on a number of occasions and got pinned. A few more pounds of strength and he might have squeezed out of a couple of those and got rolling (quite literally). In the third he finally started connecting on some zone entries. Had a third assist on the first PP goal, and then his first NHL assist on Hertl's.

Clarke looked good. Still not enough power in his stride. Accelerations is ok but straight ahead footspeed isn't great. Can tell he's taken on a leadership role. Controlling play. Making mistakes, but making things happen. Had an assist today an is now up to 3 in 3.

Jarventie with an assist in two AHL games. Reilly Walsh with 2 assists first game in. Durzi with one assist first game in.

Vejmelka had us 5 NHL points last night but was sitting in the minors. I asked and we can't put Blackwood on IR. He's recognized as DTD.

[matchesmalone]

Some good news on the prospect front:

Clarke with 3 assists last game, now up to 6 in 4.

Reilly Walsh with another assist tonight brings him to 4 in 2 games.

Koivunen with 3 goals in his last 4 games now. Ice time hovering around 15 mins lately.

Voronkov with 3 goals in his last 5. Around 15-16 mins.

Svechkov may be finally starting to get going. An assist last game and his first goal of the season today.

Vadim Zherenko, my shot in the dark literal last pick of the draft, is 2.46 and .904 through 7 Liiga games.

Arvid Soderblom played his first AHL game tonight. Gave up six goals, but wasn't pulled.

Tristan Lennox is 2.34 and .915 through 3 OHL games.

[matchesmalone]

Figured I'd try this again. Cap structure for next season:

Barkov - 9.5
Backstrom - 7
DeBrincat - 7
Vrana - 5.5
Bjorkstrand - 5
Eklund - 3.775
Foligno - 3.5
Thompson -3.5
Brown - 3.25
Hartman - 2.5
Vesey - 1.05

11F

Severson - 4.6
Toews - 3.25
Soucy - 3
Clarke - 2.875
Fabbro - 2.75
Walker - 2.75

6D

Blackwood - 4.5
Smith - 2.5 or Vejmelka???

2G

That would put us at 80.8 including retention. Cap will be 82.5. That would leave us with with 1.7 in cap space and 19 roster players. If we went with Vejmelka over Smith and have a couple rookies make the team that could fit us under. But we'll also continue looking into moving Vrana or Bjorkstrand.

[matchesmalone]

Bjorkstrand - Barkov - DeBrincat
Eklund- Backstrom - Vrana
Hartman - Thompson - Brown
Foligno - Lazar - Vesey
Leivo/Turris/Larsson

Toews - Severson
Goligoski - Walker
Soucy - Fabbro
Kukan/Benn/MacDermid

Blackwood
Smith
Vejmelka

Fuck sake. Just looking at the team we could have had this year if healthy. We should have challenged for the division. Well, not exactly the team we would have had as we'd have been substantially over the cap, but we could have traded a Vrana or some such. Of course I also wouldn't have signed/claimed Larsson or MacDermid (who has been beyond useless) if not for the injuries.

Back to reality, looking ahead to next season. we clearly have 10 top 9 forwards, so something will have to give.

As for this season, I'm thinking once Vrana does come back, we'll be over the cap as it is if everyone else is relatively healthy. If our playoff destiny is still unclear, we may have to send Eklund down for a while, as if we are still battling for a playoff spot, we would be looking to move one of Vrana or Bjorkstrand. That won't be an uncomplicated trade to make, as the teams interested in those guys would be late-stage rebuilding teams, but they'll be more looking to move their own veterans, not futures so much, while we would need to do it for futures to make the cap work. We'll figure something out. If we are out of playoff contention, that makes things easier, as we should be able to move Smith and Goligoski, maybe Foligno. If Smith is looking like the starter in Edmonton, we should have no problem getting a 1st for him - then I can get my wish and try to pull Bryan Murray 2003 with a Getzlaf and Perry.

[matchesmalone]

Prospect update:

After a very worrisome start, Svechkov suddenly went off for 7 points in his last 3 games, and now suddenly has a very respectable 10 points in 13 VHL games.

Brandt Clarke with 14 points in 10 games. Impressive, but I'd like to see even more from him. He has enough issues and causes for concern, that just putting up very good numbers in junior doesn't say much toward his NHL-translatability. Spectacular numbers would make me feel a little better. World Juniors will tell us more.

Ville Koivunen with 11 points in 19 games. Pretty good, but again I'd like to see slightly better.

After a slow start, Roby Jarventie has had 3 in his last 2 and is now up to 6 in 9. Very respectable for a 19 year old in AHL.

After a hat trick and 5 points in his first 4 AHL games this year, Ben McCartney was called up and has now played two NHL games at around 15 minutes each.

Almost all of the goalie prospects are looking solid. Colten Ellis got into his first AHL game with 1 goal against and a .966 SVP. Still just 21. Arvid Soderblom with an ugly 3.53 GAA but a respectable .918 SVP through 4 games. He's just 22. And perhaps my favourite, as he was the very last player of this past draft, and I had actually seen him play a little - Vadim Zherenko has taken over as starter for Ilves in Liiga at just 20, and has a decent 2.52 and .906.

Sean Durzi with 9 points in 9 games. And Reilly Walsh with 5 in 6.

[matchesmalone]

Some targets for trading back: Noah Ostlund, Josh Bloom, Gleb Trikozov, Matyas Sapovaliv, Calle Odelius, Joel Nystrom, Kyle Jackson.

[matchesmalone]

Goalies (with GVE over the past two seasons):

Jarry – CGY +0.13
Hill – PHI +0.22
Varlamov – NJD +0.06
Gibson - MIN +0.16
Bobrovsky – UFA +0.05
Husso – UFA -0.12
Petersen – OTT +0.17
Comrie – OTT -0.44
Forsberg – FLA -0.12
Raanta – UFA -0.08
Smith – UFA -0.16

[matchesmalone]

Players listed as UFA are already going to be UFA come July 1st. Players listed as 2002 will have to go through the draft first, and if they go undrafted will become UFA on July 1st.

Nick Cicek (UFA)

Tanner Dickinson (2002)

Joel Nystrom (2002)

Trenton Bliss (UFA)

Kyle Jackson (2002)

Stephen Halliday (2002)

Jordan Frasca (UFA)

Lucas Edmonds (UFA)

Jet Greaves (UFA)

Arshdeep Bains (2002)

Benjamin King (2002)

Oskari Salminen (UFA)

Calle Sjalin (UFA)

Linus Oberg (UFA)

Filip Cederqvist (UFA)

Ryan Fanti (UFA)

Lukas Sillinger (UFA)

Carter Mazur (2002)

Viktor Lodin (UFA)

Mazur and Nystrom will certainly not make it through the draft, and could be targets for the 3rd round or so if we trade back. Some of the other 2002s might be worth taking with our 5th.

[matchesmalone]

Alright this is gonna be getting pretty close to our final list. Tried to take your input into consideration as much as possible Josh, but on the guys I know well I have to trust my gut.

Also tried my best to account for the Russian factor without completely eliminating Russians from contention. It could be argued that based on their rankings vs. consensus, I in fact have effectively eliminated Mintyukov and maybe Perevalov too. It's the top end Russians that play a style of game conducive to North America that I wouldn't be quite so worried about picking. Lets assume things don't get completely out of hand and Russians aren't banned from the NHL or anything crazy. But as Russia seeks independence on the world stage and tries to grow the KHL into legitimate competition for the NHL, it's players who might have just a little bit of trouble adjusting to the NHL game may be quicker to cut ties and go back to Russia rather than report to the AHL or put up with being scratched or benched by NHL coaches. Despite their tremendous upside, Trikozov and Mintyukov fall into that category for me.

Other players I rank lower than their consensus this year is typically because I just haven't seen them enough more than I don't like the player. Geekie in particular, there seems to be a lot of red flags around and I haven't seen him enough to confirm or deny the reports, so I think it will be best to exercise caution. Josh, please argue your case for anything you think I'm way off on.

1. Shane Wright
2. Juraj Slafkovsky
3. Logan Cooley

4. Jonathan Lekkerimaki
5. Simon Nemec
6. Frank Nazar
7. Danila Yurov
8. Joakim Kemell
9. David Jiricek

10. Liam Ohgren
11. Matthew Savoie
12. Cutter Gauthier
13. Marco Kasper
14. Kevin Korchinksi
15. Brad Lambert

16. Ivan Miroshnichenko
17. Calle Odelius
18. Tristan Luneau
19. Seamus Casey
20. Conor Geekie
21. Isaac Howard
22. Rutger McGroarty
23. Denton Mateychuk
24. Owen Pickering

25. Noah Ostlund
26. Jiri Kulich
27. Gleb Trikozov
28. Carter Mazur
29. Pavel Mintyukov
30. Alex Perevalov
31. Tomas Hamara
32. Filip Mesar

Anything after this point my confidence level dips sharply, but figure I better have at least a rough idea just in case.

33. Mats Lindgren
34. Lian Bichsel
35. Jimmy Snuggerud
36. Luca Belluz
37. Jack Hughes
38. Josh Bloom
39. Matyas Sapovaliv
40. Ty Nelson
41. David Goyette
42. Ryan Chesley
43. Mattias Havelid
44. Reid Schaefer
45. Jagger Firkus
46. Elias Salomonsson
47. Joel Nystrom

[matchesmalone]

Watched some more Gauthier footage this morning and now watching the Seattle game tonight. I'm gonna bump Korchinski ahead of Gauthier and Kasper. I'm becoming more and more doubtful about Gauthier's offensive upside, while Korchisnki is starting to show some really high-level playmaking. Should be able to watch another couple Seattle games before the draft, and maybe one or two Winnipeg games too, so hopefully I will have the confidence to make an informed decision between Korchinski and Savoie.

[matchesmalone]

Did a little bit of shuffling. I maybe got a little carried away with being weary about Geekie. Caught most of the Ice game tonight. Lots to like there. Gotta try to see at least one more.

1. Shane Wright
2. Juraj Slafkovsky
3. Logan Cooley

4. Jonathan Lekkerimaki
5. Simon Nemec
6. Frank Nazar
7. Danila Yurov
8. Joakim Kemell
9. David Jiricek

10. Liam Ohgren
11. Matthew Savoie
12. Kevin Korchinksi
13. Conor Geekie
14. Brad Lambert
15. Cutter Gauthier
16. Marco Kasper

17. Ivan Miroshnichenko
18. Calle Odelius
19. Tristan Luneau
20. Seamus Casey
21. Isaac Howard
22. Rutger McGroarty
23. Denton Mateychuk
24. Owen Pickering

25. Noah Ostlund
26. Jiri Kulich
27. Gleb Trikozov
28. Carter Mazur
29. Pavel Mintyukov
30. Alex Perevalov
31. Tomas Hamara
32. Filip Mesar

[matchesmalone]

1. Shane Wright
2. Juraj Slafkovsky
3. Logan Cooley

----- The top three all have that unique blend of elite skill and NHL-translatability that puts them a cut above -----

4. Jonathan Lekkerimaki - Elite playmaker off the puck, highly skilled with the puck, but more likely to make the safe possession play than try to force offense. Might go a couple of shifts at a time where he only creates low-danger chances, but at least once every two or three shifts he'll find the opportunity to create something high-danger, usually taking very little risk to do so. Guys like this, who can give up the puck and get in positions to give their linemates the best chance to make a good play - to me that's what "making players around you better" is all about.
5. Danila Yurov - Constantly creating something out of nothing due to his uncanny ability to win any puck battle. Not quite as purely skilled as the top four, but the most NHL-translatable player in the entire draft. Should be number 4 but they're close enough that Yurov drops one spot due to Russian factor.
6. Simon Nemec - Certainly not as much offensive upside as the next few players, but we have to think NHL safety as well as players who are going to help their teams win and have high value to contenders in their primes. He'll rack up points just being on the ice 25+ mins a game, and his shot alone makes him a weapon on the powerplay.
7. Frank Nazar - Falls somewhere in between Lekkerimaki on one side and Savoie/Kemell on the other in terms of risk management. The latter two often take risks in which the potential payoff is not immediately clear. About once a shift Nazar will make a high-risk play that leads immediately to a high-danger scoring chance if successful - often passes directly into the slot where a linemate then has a fraction of a second to make a play. He's probably not going to be the guy who makes players around him better, but if playing with highly skilled players who can keep up with him, he'll help them play to their potential. If he ends up having trouble balancing risk with creating offense at the NHL-level, his tenacity and intelligence could still make him an effective top nine forward.
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8. Joakim Kemell - Immensely skilled player, but often seems to dangle one on one just for the fun or the challenge of it. Can play a bit of a perimeter game. Would love to see him use his puck skills to directly attack the middle of the ice more often. Reminds me a little bit of Gustav Nyquist. Also has a real nasty temper that could get him suspended from time to time, but could also rack up some PIMs for stick infractions.
9. David Jiricek - Pretty much the same as I said about Nemec. Probably not as much offensive upside, but will be highly sought-after by contenders in his prime, and might develop into the type of player who could add fantasy value through PIMs.
10. Ivan Miroshnichenko - In terms of raw ability (pure skill plus athleticism), he and Slafkovsky are the top of the class. He was already behind most of his peers in terms of game experience, and now is going to miss another full season. Many reports express concerns with his hockey IQ, but I believe that will come with playing games at higher levels. Aside from international play, he played less than 20 games at the U18 level, and then exactly 20 games at the U20 level before making the jump to VHL. I am far less concerned about IQ and much more concerned about his "heart". Does he have the will to be the raging bull he can be when he's at his best? Will the health scare make him more timid or will it be a wake-up call? A lot of question marks and he'll need some real development time, but could have the highest upside in the entire draft.
11. Liam Ohgren - Probably has the least offensive upside of the forwards listed so far, but he's a very safe bet to be a 40-50 point producer, and still has some pretty serious upside beyond that. Somewhere in the mould of a Goodrow, Hyman, Landeskog. Yes, that's quite a range, and that's the difficulty assessing Ohgren. He can look a little sluggish in puck battles. Not the quickest on his pivots. And some reports suggest he needs to add more east-west to his game. That said, he's a bull of a kid at 6'1 and already 190+, a powerful straight-line skater with an elite shot in terms of power and ability to release from any angle. Skates good routes, loves to drift high for a defenseman pinching and then slowly creep into the high slot. Nothing special with his puck skills, but fairly subtle hands in tight and has the lower arm strength to handle the puck and to shoot out away from his body. Not a particularly creative playmaker, but there's some thoughtfulness there.
12. Matthew Savoie - Tons of offensive upside but also an awful lot of risk. When prospects have concerns with size combined with concerns with pro-translatability, that gives me pause. His saving grace is his speed, quickness and explosiveness; always valuable traits in the NHL. Pretty good chance he develops into at least a 60 point player in the NHL, and maybe much more, but he'll need some development time.
13. Kevin Korchinksi - Immense offensive upside, but he's another one of the most frustrating players in the draft. Always seems to leave you wanting just a little bit more. A little bit more effort, a little bit safer decisions with the puck, a little bit better decisions defensively. He's a June birthday and only played 20-something games as a rookie though, so still pretty early in his development. Is not the go-to guy on Seattle's defense the way Mateychuk is in Moose Jaw. Partly because he's just not as polished a two-way defender, but partly because Seattle is a very good team and he's stuck playing behind Knazko and Hanzel, which is also putting a bit of a damper on his development. Probably for the best long-term though.
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14. Conor Geekie - Reminds me a little of Getzlaf in his draft year, who was ranked 5th in NA by Central, but fell on draft day due to some concerns around effort level. Geekie has similar concerns, as well as those around his skating. Also a little reminiscent of Byfield in his draft year, the way he just often looks a little sluggish. But his size, skill, and offensive hockey IQ mean big upside if he can figure it out. His lack of playoff production further fuels concerns about his ability to make plays in tight spaces, which would be a crucial aspect to him developing into the type of player he would need to be to take full advantage of his attributes.
15. Brad Lambert - The talent is undeniable, but he can be too much of a perimeter player and takes too much risk when he does decide to attack the inside. Does he have the hockey IQ to figure out how to create offense with minimal risk? Reminds me of Nick Schmaltz as a guy who will excel in transition and creating on the perimeter, but may struggle to create in the high-danger areas. Also comes with some off-ice red flags.
16. Marco Kasper - Going back to what I said about Nemec and Jiricek, and have implied about others, he's a guy who will be extremely sought-after by playoff contenders. I wish I had seen him more than I have, because I feel like there's a little bit of offensive upside there, but I just can't decide how much. Very safe bet to be a 30-40 point producer. 55-65 would seem to be the absolute best-case scenario, but might add value with PIMs.
17. Cutter Gauthier - Some of the better raw tools in the draft when you look at his frame, skating and shooting. Also some defensive ability and versatility to play wing or center. But I see very little to get excited about in terms of offensive upside. Lacks any real creativity, problem-solving or precision with his playmaking. Probably a much more valuable pick in real life than he will be in fantasy. Saw a comparison to Lawson Crouse that seemed to ring true for me.
18. Calle Odelius - Just never seems to make a mistake with the puck. Reminds me of Jonas Brodin, which maybe doesn't say too much to his fantasy value, but he'll be a very safe bet to make the NHL, probably sooner than most picks in this range, and I feel like there's a little bit of offensive upside hidden there as well.
19. Tristan Luneau - Maybe not the most offensive upside, but he's a puck-moving defenseman first and foremost. Will need a little development time, but pretty good chance he could end up somewhere along the lines of a Weegar, Toews or Severson, whose offensive output derives largely from being primary puck-movers on teams loaded with skilled forwards.
20. Isaac Howard - Really safe player, aside from the size. Some similarities to Lekkerimaki in that he plays a pretty safe offensive game, uses his teammates well. But lacks some of Lekkerimaki's dynamic offensive elements. Still, there's some legit upside there and could be an absolute steal if he's there late first.
21. Rutger McGroarty - His skating worries me. At younger levels he's able to use his strength and leverage to bull his way around the ice a bit, but against tougher opposition he consistently struggles to carry the puck to the inside, as well as to make it to areas and loose pucks on time. His hockey IQ is very good and you can see as he adjusts to higher levels he learns to use his positioning to compensate for his skating, but unless he can make drastic improvements to his skating, as he moves up levels you have to wonder if his ability to use his IQ to make up for his skating is going to hit a wall at some point.
22. Seamus Casey - Some of the highest offensive upside in the draft, but comes with a ton of risk, in terms of size, risk management, and lack of elite straight-line speed. Probably gonna be a very slow-burner developmentally.
23. Denton Mateychuk - Another guy that I unfortunately haven't seen as much of as I would like. Hockey IQ is very high and should be a safe bet to be a top four defenseman, but I'm just not sure how high is the offensive upside?
24. Owen Pickering - Unbelievably smooth skater for a defenseman his size. Really smart player too, and there seems to be some offensive upside there, but how much and how likely is he to fulfill it?
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25. Noah Ostlund - Offensive upside is through the roof. Pretty much right there with any of the skilled forwards in the top 10. But he can also be extremely risky, and has a ton of bulking up to do at not much over 160 lbs currently.
26. Jiri Kulich - Maybe I'm a little behind the curve here. Many seem to think he'll be one of the big draft-day risers. Maybe, but I haven't really seen it from what I've watched of him. smart two-way player, some pretty high-end skill, hell of a shot. But I'm just not sure I see anything all that special to get that excited about.
27. Gleb Trikozov - Another player with upside absolutely off the charts. But the Russian factor comes into major play here, as he's going to have difficulty adjusting to the NHL game, and might be quick to pack up and go back to Russia rather than go to the AHL or sit on the bench/in the press box. Or he might be like a Kaprizov and wait until he's 23 and pretty certain he can play before he comes over.
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28. Pavel Mintyukov - Highly skilled offensive defenseman, but my lack of viewing, concerns around his defensive game, plus the Russian factor, have him lower than he's likely to go.
29. Alex Perevalov - Smart, skilled, tenacious winger. Skating and Russian factor keep him down.
30. Tomas Hamara - Really wish I had watched more and paid more attention. Starting to feel like this kid should go really high.
31. Filip Mesar - Very dynamic offensive winger. Lack of improvement from his D-1 year is concerning.
32. Carter Mazur - Has speed to burn, and he's two years ahead in his development. We already know he is with Detroit IRL, who seem to be on the verge of emerging as a pretty legit team.