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  • Ville Koivunen with another goal today. Up to 4 goals and 6 points in 11 games.

    Timur Bilyalov with some pretty absurd numbers through 8 KHL games this year. 1.46 GAA and a.933 SVP.


    • I did a chart prior to LYL draft. I had read an article from Dobber on "Zero G" draft philosophy. Not picking any goalies until late. Decided to try a variant - just try to wait as long as I can to pick a goalie, and use analytics to grab some steals. The two stats are GVE and QS%. GVE is goals versus expected, i.e. all-situation goals against per 60 (GAA) minus all-situation expected goals against per 60 (XGAA). Anything inside +.25 or .3 is solid. Anything below zero is outstanding. QS% is quality starts, i.e. the percentage of a goalie's starts where he records above the league average SVP.

      Goalie name GVE (past 2 seasons) QS% ('20/21)
      Oettinger (DAL) +.20 .500
      Sorokin (NYI) -.02 .714
      Khudobin (DAL) +.18 .531
      Grubauer (SEA) +.01 .667
      Campbell (TOR) +.22 .591
      Merzlikins (CBJ) +.24 .609
      Samsonov (WSH) +.31 .389
      Nedeljkovic (DET) -.26 .652
      Driedger (SEA) -.28 .652
      Jarry (PIT) +.24 .632
      Kuemper (COL) -.03 .556
      Ullmark (BOS) +.28 .550
      Saros (NSH) 0.00 .629
      DeSmith (PIT) +.04 .529
      Mrazek (TOR) +.01 .583
      Hill (SJS) +.02 .471
      Gibson (ANA) +.29 .429
      Shesterkin (NYR) -.12 .645
      Lehner (VGK) -.04 .632
      Hellebuyck (WPG) -.20 .556
      Ranta (CAR) 0.00 .545
      Peterson (LAK) 0.00 .500
      Demko (VAN) +.06 .543
      Swayman (BOS) -.40 .900
      Varlamov (NYI) -.06 .743
      Stolarz (ANA) -.24 .714


      • MacKenzie Blackwood I wanted to take a closer look at. his GVS.
        he was +.26 over the past 3 years
        in 2018/19 he was -.03
        in 2019/20 he was +.22
        in 2020/21 he was +.50

        +.22 is very respectable, especially for a young goalie. From what I recall last season he was off to a standout season until he and the team got covid and fell apart.


        • I watched Brandt Clarke today and Eklund last night. Not a strong game for Eklund by any stretch. But it was cool to see he was trying things, playing his game. Was just a little off on his NHL rhythm. Tried to go to work in the corners on a number of occasions and got pinned. A few more pounds of strength and he might have squeezed out of a couple of those and got rolling (quite literally). In the third he finally started connecting on some zone entries. Had a third assist on the first PP goal, and then his first NHL assist on Hertl's.

          Clarke looked good. Still not enough power in his stride. Accelerations is ok but straight ahead footspeed isn't great. Can tell he's taken on a leadership role. Controlling play. Making mistakes, but making things happen. Had an assist today an is now up to 3 in 3.

          Jarventie with an assist in two AHL games. Reilly Walsh with 2 assists first game in. Durzi with one assist first game in.

          Vejmelka had us 5 NHL points last night but was sitting in the minors. I asked and we can't put Blackwood on IR. He's recognized as DTD.


          • Some good news on the prospect front:

            Clarke with 3 assists last game, now up to 6 in 4.

            Reilly Walsh with another assist tonight brings him to 4 in 2 games.

            Koivunen with 3 goals in his last 4 games now. Ice time hovering around 15 mins lately.

            Voronkov with 3 goals in his last 5. Around 15-16 mins.

            Svechkov may be finally starting to get going. An assist last game and his first goal of the season today.

            Vadim Zherenko, my shot in the dark literal last pick of the draft, is 2.46 and .904 through 7 Liiga games.

            Arvid Soderblom played his first AHL game tonight. Gave up six goals, but wasn't pulled.

            Tristan Lennox is 2.34 and .915 through 3 OHL games.


            • Figured I'd try this again. Cap structure for next season:

              Barkov - 9.5
              Backstrom - 7
              DeBrincat - 7
              Vrana - 5.5
              Bjorkstrand - 5
              Eklund - 3.775
              Foligno - 3.5
              Thompson -3.5
              Brown - 3.25
              Hartman - 2.5
              Vesey - 1.05


              Severson - 4.6
              Toews - 3.25
              Soucy - 3
              Clarke - 2.875
              Fabbro - 2.75
              Walker - 2.75


              Blackwood - 4.5
              Smith - 2.5 or Vejmelka???


              That would put us at 80.8 including retention. Cap will be 82.5. That would leave us with with 1.7 in cap space and 19 roster players. If we went with Vejmelka over Smith and have a couple rookies make the team that could fit us under. But we'll also continue looking into moving Vrana or Bjorkstrand.


              • Bjorkstrand - Barkov - DeBrincat
                Eklund- Backstrom - Vrana
                Hartman - Thompson - Brown
                Foligno - Lazar - Vesey

                Toews - Severson
                Goligoski - Walker
                Soucy - Fabbro


                Fuck sake. Just looking at the team we could have had this year if healthy. We should have challenged for the division. Well, not exactly the team we would have had as we'd have been substantially over the cap, but we could have traded a Vrana or some such. Of course I also wouldn't have signed/claimed Larsson or MacDermid (who has been beyond useless) if not for the injuries.

                Back to reality, looking ahead to next season. we clearly have 10 top 9 forwards, so something will have to give.

                As for this season, I'm thinking once Vrana does come back, we'll be over the cap as it is if everyone else is relatively healthy. If our playoff destiny is still unclear, we may have to send Eklund down for a while, as if we are still battling for a playoff spot, we would be looking to move one of Vrana or Bjorkstrand. That won't be an uncomplicated trade to make, as the teams interested in those guys would be late-stage rebuilding teams, but they'll be more looking to move their own veterans, not futures so much, while we would need to do it for futures to make the cap work. We'll figure something out. If we are out of playoff contention, that makes things easier, as we should be able to move Smith and Goligoski, maybe Foligno. If Smith is looking like the starter in Edmonton, we should have no problem getting a 1st for him - then I can get my wish and try to pull Bryan Murray 2003 with a Getzlaf and Perry.


                • Prospect update:

                  After a very worrisome start, Svechkov suddenly went off for 7 points in his last 3 games, and now suddenly has a very respectable 10 points in 13 VHL games.

                  Brandt Clarke with 14 points in 10 games. Impressive, but I'd like to see even more from him. He has enough issues and causes for concern, that just putting up very good numbers in junior doesn't say much toward his NHL-translatability. Spectacular numbers would make me feel a little better. World Juniors will tell us more.

                  Ville Koivunen with 11 points in 19 games. Pretty good, but again I'd like to see slightly better.

                  After a slow start, Roby Jarventie has had 3 in his last 2 and is now up to 6 in 9. Very respectable for a 19 year old in AHL.

                  After a hat trick and 5 points in his first 4 AHL games this year, Ben McCartney was called up and has now played two NHL games at around 15 minutes each.

                  Almost all of the goalie prospects are looking solid. Colten Ellis got into his first AHL game with 1 goal against and a .966 SVP. Still just 21. Arvid Soderblom with an ugly 3.53 GAA but a respectable .918 SVP through 4 games. He's just 22. And perhaps my favourite, as he was the very last player of this past draft, and I had actually seen him play a little - Vadim Zherenko has taken over as starter for Ilves in Liiga at just 20, and has a decent 2.52 and .906.

                  Sean Durzi with 9 points in 9 games. And Reilly Walsh with 5 in 6.


                  • Some targets for trading back: Noah Ostlund, Josh Bloom, Gleb Trikozov, Matyas Sapovaliv, Calle Odelius, Joel Nystrom, Kyle Jackson.


                    • Goalies (with GVE over the past two seasons):

                      Jarry – CGY +0.13
                      Hill – PHI +0.22
                      Varlamov – NJD +0.06
                      Gibson - MIN +0.16
                      Bobrovsky – UFA +0.05
                      Husso – UFA -0.12
                      Petersen – OTT +0.17
                      Comrie – OTT -0.44
                      Forsberg – FLA -0.12
                      Raanta – UFA -0.08
                      Smith – UFA -0.16
                      Last edited by matchesmalone; 05-07-2022, 07:07 PM.


                      • Players listed as UFA are already going to be UFA come July 1st. Players listed as 2002 will have to go through the draft first, and if they go undrafted will become UFA on July 1st.

                        Nick Cicek (UFA)

                        Tanner Dickinson (2002)

                        Joel Nystrom (2002)

                        Trenton Bliss (UFA)

                        Kyle Jackson (2002)

                        Stephen Halliday (2002)

                        Jordan Frasca (UFA)

                        Lucas Edmonds (UFA)

                        Jet Greaves (UFA)

                        Arshdeep Bains (2002)

                        Benjamin King (2002)

                        Oskari Salminen (UFA)

                        Calle Sjalin (UFA)

                        Linus Oberg (UFA)

                        Filip Cederqvist (UFA)

                        Ryan Fanti (UFA)

                        Lukas Sillinger (UFA)

                        Carter Mazur (2002)

                        Viktor Lodin (UFA)

                        Mazur and Nystrom will certainly not make it through the draft, and could be targets for the 3rd round or so if we trade back. Some of the other 2002s might be worth taking with our 5th.