CDCFL San Jose Sharks

[matchesmalone]

Some UFA targets:

Rickard Rakell
Charlie Coyle
TJ Oshie
Alex Iafallo
Matt Duchene
Filip Forsberg
Mikael Granlund
Mats Zuccarello
Patrice Bergeron
Claude Giroux
Joe Pavelski
Bryan Rust
J.T. Miller

[matchesmalone]

Some potential targets for pick 73 - Matthias Havelid, Tomas Hamara, Carter Mazur, Josh Bloom, Devin Kaplan, Ryan Greene, Julian Lutz, Jack Devine, Ludwig Persson, Cruz Lucius, Nicholas Moldenhauer.

I am assuming Luneau, Casey, Sapovaliv, Goyette, Beck, Bystedt, Pickering, Zhilkin, Ingram are for sure gone.

[matchesmalone]

Gavin Hayes and Michael Buchinger look interesting for that range too. Cam Lund? Topi Ronni? Aleksanteri Kaskimaki? Jordan Dumais?

Could Ty Nelson or Jani Nyman fall? Probably not.

[matchesmalone]

1. Adam Ingram
2. Devin Kaplan
3. Danil Zhilkin
4. Carter Mazur
5. Matias Sapovaliv
6. Filip Bystedt
7. Julian Lutz
8. Bryce McConnell-Barker
9. Topi Ronni
10. Cruz Lucius
11. Tomas Hamara
12. Ryan Greene
13. Cam Lund
14. Rieger Lorenz
15. Topias Leinonen
16. Tyler Brennan
17. Gavin Hayes
18. Michael Buchinger
19. Oliver Johansson
20. Maverick Lammoreux
21. Josh Bloom
22. Kasper Kulonummi
23. Aleksanteri Kaskimaki
24. Joel Nystrom
25. Zach Ostapchuk

Just missing the cut, will be top of the list for our 5th rounder:

Jordan Dumais, Matthew Poitras, Ryan Tverberg, Elmeri Laakso, Nicholas Moldenhauer, Ludwig Persson, Jack Devine, Isiah George, Mats Lindgren, Paul Ludwinski, Jorian Donovan, Jere Lassila, Cole Spicer

[matchesmalone]

Woah. This is an interesting one. I've been raving about Odelius almost never making a mistake. Guess who steps up and forces the turnover on him here:

https://youtu.be/EwNlYeYJxy4?t=5213

[matchesmalone]

Looked a little bit further still into McConnell-Barker's numbers throughout the year, and took a look at Hayes too. A few interesting tidbits.

I mentioned Barker upped his p/g from 0.64 prior to Jan 25, to 0.8125 for the rest of the season, but further to that, he actually had 17 points in the final 17 games. Not such a great playoffs and I don't have any explanation for that but hoping he was just being used in more of a checking/shutdown role.

Hayes went pointless for the first 11 games of the season, before suddenly exploding for 14 in the next 11, and then cooling off again. But still, that's 0.91 p/g after the first 11. His playoffs were even more interesting. He again went pointless for the first 6 games of playoffs, before putting up one assist in game 7, then busting out for 8 in 6 the following series, and then just 3 in 6 in the 3rd round.

[matchesmalone]

Cross Mazar, Tverberg, Ostapchuk, Dickinson, Bloom, Robertson off the list. Johansson, Melanson, Kos made it through but aren't old enough to sign so we'll just have to keep an eye out for next year. This leaves us with still a lot of names to consider. Of the drafted players who went unsigned, the most noteworthy names were re-drafted (Jack Thompson and Justin Sourdif), but Mitch Miller is interesting. So we still have a lot of names to consider offering contract to. The ones I am most excited about are Cicek, Nystrom, Salminen, Cederqvist, Fanti. I'll go through the rest of the names in the coming days here, but I feel like every one of them could be worth offering a contract.

Nick Cicek (UFA)

Joel Nystrom (2002)

Trenton Bliss (UFA)

Kyle Jackson (2002)

Stephen Halliday (2002)

Jordan Frasca (UFA)

Lucas Edmonds (UFA)

Jet Greaves (UFA)

Arshdeep Bains (2002)

Benjamin King (2002)

Oskari Salminen (UFA)

Calle Sjalin (UFA)

Linus Oberg (UFA)

Filip Cederqvist (UFA)

Ryan Fanti (UFA)

Lukas Sillinger (UFA)

Viktor Lodin (UFA)

Albert Sjoberg (2002)

[matchesmalone]

Tried to narrow down the list a bit further. Got it to 13. Tried to come up with some rough estimates of what each might require. Add Sjalin to the group I'm most excited about. And actually bump him ahead of Nystrom. Lodin isn't far behind.


Nick Cicek (UFA) - 995k

Joel Nystrom (2002) - 925k

Kyle Jackson (2002) - Where does he get drafted IRL? Same goes for the next three. 750k?

Stephen Halliday (2002) - 775k

Lucas Edmonds (UFA) - 750k

Benjamin King (2002) - 750k

Oskari Salminen (UFA) - 1.5

Calle Sjalin (UFA) - 1.25

Linus Oberg (UFA) - 925k

Filip Cederqvist (UFA) - 995k

Ryan Fanti (UFA) - 1.25

Lukas Sillinger (UFA) - 750k

Viktor Lodin (UFA) - 995k

[matchesmalone]

Tried to narrow down the list a bit further. Got it to 13. Tried to come up with some rough estimates of what each might require. Add Sjalin to the group I'm most excited about. And actually bump him ahead of Nystrom. Lodin isn't far behind.


Nick Cicek (UFA) - 995k

Joel Nystrom (2002) - 925k

Kyle Jackson (2002) - Where does he get drafted IRL? Same goes for the next three. 750k?

Stephen Halliday (2002) - 775k

Lucas Edmonds (UFA) - 750k

Benjamin King (2002) - 750k

Oskari Salminen (UFA) - 1.5

Calle Sjalin (UFA) - 1.25

Linus Oberg (UFA) - 925k

Filip Cederqvist (UFA) - 995k

Ryan Fanti (UFA) - 1.25

Lukas Sillinger (UFA) - 750k

Viktor Lodin (UFA) - 995k

Actually scratch Sillinger for now. Would prefer players already owned by NHL teams. Looking through NCAA again, there's actually some really intriguing lower key options: Declan Carlile, Andre Lee, Noah Beck, Matteo Costantini and Matthew Stienburg. Gonna overpay a little for Beck because we need D in the system, and especially for Carlile because Tampa. I'm sure there will be a lot of teams in on Carlile.

[matchesmalone]

Actually scratch Sillinger for now. Would prefer players already owned by NHL teams. Looking through NCAA again, there's actually some really intriguing lower key options: Declan Carlile, Andre Lee, Noah Beck, Matteo Costantini and Matthew Stienburg. Gonna overpay a little for Beck because we need D in the system, and especially for Carlile because Tampa. I'm sure there will be a lot of teams in on Carlile.

Add Cole Reinhart, Oskar Back, Cam Berg. I'm actually on the fence about Berg and Costantini right now. They're drafted sure but stats look solid yet unspectacular.

Stienburg is very intriguing to me. Former 3rd round pick, owned by Colorado. Jumped straight from high school hockey to NCAA so the weak freshman campaign is very excusable. Then Cornell was one of the few teams to shut down completely for covid, and now he was a p/g, albeit already 21.

[matchesmalone]

I guess I'll leave off Costantini and Berg for now. Still trying to whittle the numbers down. Those two plus Frasca and Sillinger will be the first guys I circle back to if I feel we weren't able to add enough bodies to the system first go-around. We'll have about 10 free contract spots to use. I'd like to add at least 5, and no more than 7 or 8.

Nick Cicek - 995k

Joel Nystrom - 925k

Kyle Jackson - 750k

Stephen Halliday - 775k

Lucas Edmonds - 750k

Benjamin King - 750k

Oskari Salminen - 2x1.5 or 3x1.25

Calle Sjalin - 1.25

Linus Oberg - 750k

Filip Cederqvist - 995k

Ryan Fanti - 2x1.5 or 3x1.25

Viktor Lodin - 1.15

Declan Carlile - 1.15

Andre Lee - 825k

Noah Beck - 825k

Cole Reinhart - 800k

Oskar Back -925k

Matthew Stienburg - 1.15

[matchesmalone]

Sharks top 20 prospects (with equivalent draft pick value) :

Tier I (top 5 OA)
1. William Eklund

Tier II (top 15 OA)
2. Liam Ohgren
3. Fyodor Svechkov

Tier III (1st round)

4. Calle Odelius
5. Sasha Chmelevski
6. Arvid Soderblom
7. Drew O'Connor
8. Ville Koivunen
9. Reilly Walsh
10. Roby Jarventie

Tier IV (2nd-3rd round)
11. Ben McCartney
12. Bryce McConnell-Barker
13. Ian Mitchell
14. Nolan Allan
15. Gavin Hayes

Tier V (4th or later)
16. Jonathan Aspirot
17. Vadim Zherenko
18. Hunter Skinner
19. Hunter Shepard
20. Topias Vilen

That top 15 is very strong. Just comparing against when I used to do NHL team rankings, this is a pretty exceptional group. So with free agency we're mainly looking to bolster the bottom quarter of the list, and if we can land one or two in tier IV that would be enormous.

[matchesmalone]

Ok I told CBJ and DET that we would wait to see how UFA plays out before making any decisions on Wheeler or Crosby. Looking at our lineup right now we have 21 players on the roster and 14.685 in cap space. A full cohort of 8 regular defensemen. Still waiting for final confirmation on the Bob signing but seems done at 6.25. Add that and Eklund's 3.775 brings us down to 4.66 with a full 23 man roster. To be conservative lets assume it's Chmelevski and his 0.685 we have to send down if we add a player at UFA, not giving us much relief... 4.66+0.685=5.345. So conceivably we could offer Granlund 5.25, but that leaves us extremely little breathing room. I still think Iafallo and Coyle are fairly interesting cheaper options.

But alternatively, if we do the Vrana/Tatar deal, take that 5.345+2.75=8.095, and now we have something to work with. To be sure we are on the safe side, I take the difference from Chmelevski to Vesey (in case for some reason we need to call up Vesey over Chmelevski), which is 0.365, and subtract from 8.095, giving 7.73, and that's the number I'd be comfortable giving Forsberg/Giroux/Duchene/Bergeron/Pavelski. Not sure exactly what it's going to take or what we should offer value-wise, but for our cap structure going into next season, that's where we're at.

[Josh]

Man, sorry this took so long. Some of the players who turned up in the results of my first analysis just weren't good enough, so I needed to change things up. I'm a lot more comfortable with the new ones. You also got me thinking about other teams, which expanded the scope.

This is essentially a list of CDC teams with players whose current value should be lower than Thompson's, but whose production values relative to position are reasonably likely to reach his anytime between now and a few seasons from now. It only yields two teams where trades involving only players on the list could make sense - Nashville and Washington. In the other cases, the list only serves to highlight players we should push to include in any deal for Thompson. Alternatively, it can also be used as a list of players to target.

In order of value:

Nashville: Nico Hischier, Arthur Kaliyev, Anttoni Honka, Chase Stillman
Washington: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonatan Berggren, K’Andre Miller, Fraser Mitten
Ottawa: Jesper Bratt, Jamieson Rees, Francesco Pinelli
Chicago: Gabriel Vilardi, Marco Rossi, Brandon Duhaime
Florida: Brandt Clarke, Martin Chromiak, Alex Laferriere
New Jersey: Quinton Byfield, Seamus Casey
Vegas: Matt Boldy, Elmer Söderblom, Jordan Spence, Martin Kaut
Arizona: Martin Necas
Pittsburgh: Logan Thompson, Calen Addison, Robert Mastrosimone
Minnesota: Carson Lambos, Alexander Holtz, Marat Khusnutdinov
Islanders: Connor Dewar, Patrick Guay
Buffalo: Dawson Mercer, Michael Rasmussen
Calgary: Fabian Zetterlund, Patrick Puistola
Tampa Bay: Joseph Veleno, Ryder Korczak
Toronto: Filip Hronek
Edmonton: Mason Shaw
Boston: Nicolas Roy
Dallas: Marco Kasper
Anaheim: Rasmus Kupari
Philadelphia: Kasper Simontaival
Detroit: Jack Peart
Los Angeles: Alex Steeves
Montréal: Dylan Garand

The results produced a few free agents as well. The most difficult to ignore is Amadeus Lombardi. We should sign him!

[matchesmalone]

Amadeus Lombardi is not eligible to be signed. He'll have to pass through the draft again first.