Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

[Alfie11]

With the recent news that the Sens are beginning negotiations with Bobby Ryan, Clarke MacArthur and Marc Methot on contract extensions, I thought some discussion on the players and contracts would be cool. These are three valuable players to the organization and it's important they are locked up.

Bobby Ryan (27) is coming off a significant injury. He was on fire throughout the first half of the year, before getting a sports hernia and not being able to find consistency. He meshed with the MacArthur and Turris line, and is known for his hands and shot. His work ethic, speed and consistency are brought up as weaknesses. He will be coming out of a 5-year, $25.5M contract and is expected to be asking for a significant raise.

Clarke MacArthur (29) has never been able to find a stable home. He quickly found chemistry with Kyle Turris upon arriving in Ottawa, and scored a career-high 24 goals. In his up and down season, he was always a hard-worker although he did experience a few hot and cold streaks. His speed and vision are above-average, although his offensive consistency is a weakness. He will be coming out of a 2-year, $6.5M contract and is expected to ask for extra term.

Marc Methot (29) quickly became a fan favourite after getting traded to Ottawa in 2012. A local player, Methot took a step back after being a rock in the lockout-shortened season. He's known for his rugged style, hip-checks and heart-and-soul play. Since coming to Ottawa, he's shown he can not only play a solid defensive game, but also chip in, scoring 23 points last year. He doesn't have many glaring weaknesses, although he tends to overcommit to plays from time to time. He is coming off a 4-year, $12M deal. He is expected to ask for a raise.

Short-term, it's hard to say which one would sting the most if we lost them. The team has changed a considerable amount since the end of the season. I would argue it would be Methot, considering he was one of the only players capable of playing a good defensive game last year. Long-term, it's pretty easily Bobby Ryan as he's the one we gave up a lot for, he's probably the most talented forward on the team. I think it's important to get them all re-signed.

Ryan will be an interesting case. If I were in his shoes, I would not ask for the max amount of years. I think he would make more cash over his career if he asked for a deal that ended just as his prime was coming to an end, that way he can show his recent seasons and still command a nice salary. I think, with his 30 goal seasons and the cap rising, he can demand $7M at least on a 5-year deal.

MacArthur is probably looking for term. I think he'll ask for a 4-year deal and he'll get between $4-5M. It's a good fit both ways.

Methot, hopefully, could take a home-town discount. I don't know if he has beef with Paul MacLean, but let's hope not. I could see him getting a 4-5 year deal with $5M AAV. Top four defensemen are commanding a pretty penny these days.

Our cap situation for 2015-16 is ~$35.6M (with Lehner signed) for 13 players. Other than the obvious three that need a new contract, so would Condra and Anderson (UFA), and Zibanejad, Chiasson, Hoffman, Stone and Borowieck (RFA). Condra is a wild-card and Anderson will probably depend on his demands, play this year and Lehner's progression.

[Josh]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

Awesome write-up man. For me, the order of importance is Ryan - MacArthur - Methot.

[Alfie11]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

Awesome write-up man. For me, the order of importance is Ryan - MacArthur - Methot.

Thanks.

I'd agree, to an extent. I don't know how the offense will do with Spezza and Hemsky gone, so it's hard to say right now. But I think there's a possibility to have Methot over MacArthur considering how bad our defense was last year and whether or not you believe Cowen will age into the defenseman he was supposed to.

[matchesmalone]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

Certainly all three are very important to our short-term and mid-term future. Marc Methot is just coming into his prime and I'd imagine will be looking for at least 4 million a year. I'd say depending on how some guys like Wiercioch, Borowiecki, Gryba and Claesson develop over the course of the year, he may end up being the most dispensable at the end of the season.

MacArthur seems to me the most indispensable, mainly just because of our glaring weakness on the left side, and with very little in the way of prospects ready to fill that role anytime soon (sure there are possibilities in Puempel, Schneider and Guptill, but no bluechip top sixes), plus his chemistry with Turris is excellent, and both should break the 60-point mark this year. If that's the case, he'll likely want upwards of 5 million, maybe more, and I think we'd be wise to give it to him.

Ryan, as much as I like him, and as much as he could be a major part of this team, I'm not entirely convinced of his desire to remain in Ottawa long term. A strong season from him and the team may increase his chances of wanting to stay, but could also increase his asking price. If he were to leave, it wouldn't be the end of the world, since we do have Stone, Chiasson and perhaps Lazar on the right wing, but still, we gave up quite a package to have him for just two years. If he's asking for 7 million after a season like last, there's no way we can give it to him, but if he gets back to 30 goals and 65-70 points, then yeah, we should do it.

[Alfie11]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

Ryan, as much as I like him, and as much as he could be a major part of this team, I'm not entirely convinced of his desire to remain in Ottawa long term. A strong season from him and the team may increase his chances of wanting to stay, but could also increase his asking price. If he were to leave, it wouldn't be the end of the world, since we do have Stone, Chiasson and perhaps Lazar on the right wing, but still, we gave up quite a package to have him for just two years. If he's asking for 7 million after a season like last, there's no way we can give it to him, but if he gets back to 30 goals and 65-70 points, then yeah, we should do it.

I'm not calling you out here, but why do a large amount of Sens fans believe Ryan does not want to be here long-term? I don't think he's shown any signs of not wanting to be here. If you look at Ryan's actions, he's always said the right things. He could have easily brushed them off and said he's not willing to talk about staying or leaving, but he said he wanted to stay. And from what we've heard, the contract talks are going good.

I agree that losing him wouldn't really cripple the team. His ability to put the puck in the net and create offense in the offensive zone is pretty rare, though. I think since contract negotiations are going on now, he could definitely point to his injuries this year, his past performances, and age and command $7-7.5M. He played pretty well when he was healthy.

[Alfie11]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

Also, reading SensChirp, I agree with him about something I haven't mentioned about Bobby Ryan re-signing. From strictly a PR standpoint, the Sens need to re-sign Ryan. After all the positivity of the 2011-12 season and the 2013 season, that's all vanished. Darker times seem to be upon us, as a terrible year with no draft pick reward and financial problems from Melnyk leading to an internal budget are also shadowing over us. Fans are starting to lose hope as they see Alfredsson leave, Hemsky leave and Spezza request a trade. At this time, people aren't very confident in this team winning games or retaining players.

Re-signing Ryan would give the fans a glimmer of hope, although I don't think it changes much as spending so little money won't get us very far.

[matchesmalone]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

One exciting thing about this situation (although it wouldn't do anything to alleviate the worries you've just mentioned), is that, heaven forbid, should the Sens struggle again this season, not only will we end up with a high pick of our own, but we could send away a couple of those free agents for picks. Personally, I think MacArthur and then Sens are a perfect fit, so I'd try to make sure to get him locked up. Methot is a local and seems to really enjoy playing in Ottawa, so I think we'd have little trouble getting something done with him. This leaves Ryan and Anderson. Now I get what you're saying about Ryan never having shown interest in leaving, but if he and the team struggle again this year, I can't see him wanting to stay (or even worse, the team struggles and he excels, which would limit his interest in signing while also driving up his a signing price, but on the other hand, would heighten his trade value), especially considering that, if you'll recall, one of his major issues in Anaheim was not seeing ample ice time, particularly on the top line, and those issues weren't exactly rectified in Ottawa, as highlighted by this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4LPGqRZibc

Assuming Ryan has at least a decent season, we should be able to command a first round pick for him at the deadline, and Anderson should retrieve a second. I know you don't necessarily think Lehner will be ready for the starting job, but I disagree. Sure, he struggled last year, but so did Anderson, the team defense was terrible. Also, it was his first year seeing significant starting duty, I don't think it's too unusual for young goalies to struggle with consistency in these situations.. I think this is the same thing with Lehner. I'm hopeful Lehner will split the games with Anderson for most of the season and then take over the full load when Anderson is traded at the deadline (IMO, this would be the ideal situation, whether we're in a playoff spot or not), and end up playing around close to 50 games in total.

But back to my point, while I'm really, really hopeful - and actually quite confident - that the team will be back in the playoffs this season, Ryan has a great year and re-signs, if that isn't the case, we could go into a very strong draft with two firsts and two seconds. Now, while it's still too early to say just how strong a draft it will be, to me it looks very good; comparable to 2013, and the two elite talents at the top even make it a bit reminiscent of 2008. I've read in THN a while back that there were some scouts who thought it is even much stronger than 2013.

Aside from the obvious top five or so of McDavid, Eichel, Kylington, Hannifin, Strome, Zacha and Barzal, you look at names like Travis Konecny, Filip Ahl, Rasmus Andersson, Felix Sandstrom, Colin White, Mitch Marner, Nicolas Roy, Daniel Sprong, Denis Malgin, Dante Salituro, Sebastien Aho, Aleksi Saarela and Paul Bittner, even if it doesn't end up being one of the deeper drafts in recent memory, it's looking like you're at least going to have a very good chance at getting an NHL player anywhere in the first round, so Murray with two first rounders in a draft like that could be one of the best things to happen to this organization in a long time.

[Alfie11]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

^ Missed this post, sorry. I'll reply to it soon.

MacArthur is probably looking for term. I think he'll ask for a 4-year deal and he'll get between $4-5M. It's a good fit both ways.

He got around what I was expecting. An extra year and in between the price range. It's a good deal, not a steal and not a bad deal. I'm ok with the signing. Murray says talks with Ryan will resume at training camp. And apparently talks with Methot aren't going so well.

[Alfie11]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

One exciting thing about this situation (although it wouldn't do anything to alleviate the worries you've just mentioned), is that, heaven forbid, should the Sens struggle again this season, not only will we end up with a high pick of our own, but we could send away a couple of those free agents for picks. Personally, I think MacArthur and then Sens are a perfect fit, so I'd try to make sure to get him locked up. Methot is a local and seems to really enjoy playing in Ottawa, so I think we'd have little trouble getting something done with him. This leaves Ryan and Anderson. Now I get what you're saying about Ryan never having shown interest in leaving, but if he and the team struggle again this year, I can't see him wanting to stay (or even worse, the team struggles and he excels, which would limit his interest in signing while also driving up his a signing price, but on the other hand, would heighten his trade value), especially considering that, if you'll recall, one of his major issues in Anaheim was not seeing ample ice time, particularly on the top line, and those issues weren't exactly rectified in Ottawa, as highlighted by this interview. Assuming Ryan has at least a decent season, we should be able to command a first round pick for him at the deadline, and Anderson should retrieve a second.

Obviously a lot has changed since you wrote this post. MacArthur and Anderson were locked up, thankfully. Methot seems like he'll be the hardest to get re-signed. I definitely get what you mean about Ryan, the team struggling plus the challenges he and the team faced last year. I remember the clip you posted of him calling out (isn) MacLean when it happened, and it was really annoying that MacLean was doing that along with his goaltending choices and inability to use a timeout. What I believe a huge step towards re-signing a player, aside from financial work, is the team-player relationship. When the team makes a trade, sending away a 1st round draft pick and two good prospects, I believe the team-player relationship is improved. This wasn't some deadline deal, the Sens showed they think Ryan is an elite player by giving up a large package for him. The negotiations have gone very good from all we've heard, and it appears the sides are not too far off. You can tell this by the difference in moods regarding Methot and Ryan. I don't think it will matter how the team does next year or how Ryan does, because I think he'll be going into the regular season with a new contract extension. But we'll see.

I know you don't necessarily think Lehner will be ready for the starting job, but I disagree. Sure, he struggled last year, but so did Anderson, the team defense was terrible. Also, it was his first year seeing significant starting duty, I don't think it's too unusual for young goalies to struggle with consistency in these situations.. I think this is the same thing with Lehner. I'm hopeful Lehner will split the games with Anderson for most of the season and then take over the full load when Anderson is traded at the deadline (IMO, this would be the ideal situation, whether we're in a playoff spot or not), and end up playing around close to 50 games in total.

I'm gonna ignore the trading Anderson at the deadline part because of the contract extension now. What I was getting at, was I think Lehner will be a very good goalie. I think he's already a good goalie. But on the chance he flakes out, which is a possibility, we'd be left with zero starters. Coming into last season, Lehner played 25 games and overall was playing great hockey for his age and situation. But it was only 25 games. He got more of a chance this year with 36 games and had a very up-and-down year. All I'm suggesting is that Lehner show us he's capable of being a starter for an extended period of time before giving him the reigns. And he will get that chance with Anderson here.

But back to my point, while I'm really, really hopeful - and actually quite confident - that the team will be back in the playoffs this season, Ryan has a great year and re-signs, if that isn't the case, we could go into a very strong draft with two firsts and two seconds. Now, while it's still too early to say just how strong a draft it will be, to me it looks very good; comparable to 2013, and the two elite talents at the top even make it a bit reminiscent of 2008. I've read in THN a while back that there were some scouts who thought it is even much stronger than 2013.

Aside from the obvious top five or so of McDavid, Eichel, Kylington, Hannifin, Strome, Zacha and Barzal, you look at names like Travis Konecny, Filip Ahl, Rasmus Andersson, Felix Sandstrom, Colin White, Mitch Marner, Nicolas Roy, Daniel Sprong, Denis Malgin, Dante Salituro, Sebastien Aho, Aleksi Saarela and Paul Bittner, even if it doesn't end up being one of the deeper drafts in recent memory, it's looking like you're at least going to have a very good chance at getting an NHL player anywhere in the first round, so Murray with two first rounders in a draft like that could be one of the best things to happen to this organization in a long time.

I'm curious how we do this year. I think the defense will improve, because it simply can't be worse than it was last year. The goaltending will also be better. The offense will take a hit, though. Especially the power play. I'm not sold on the Sens sneaking back into the playoffs because I think a lot of teams simply look better than us (a big reason being they were able to spend $$), but I said the same in both 2011-12 and 2013.

[matchesmalone]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

I really think they'll be back in the playoffs. They'll be back to the hard-working, team-oriented, defense-first hockey that got them there two year ago. Because of this, defense turnovers will be way down, corsi will be up, and Lehner and Anderson will both bounce back. Plus, I expect offensive breakouts from Wiercioch, Chiasson and especially Zibanejad, and I think Stone is set for a big first full season. Ryan will be healthy and with all this sudden depth, he'll be playing with good players no matter what line he's on; 30 goals is inevitable. In fact, this is the type of team that, once in the playoffs, could pull off an upset or two.

[Matt the Aussie]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

All it takes in the East is to make sure you have sound defense. The pieces are there, we'll just have to see what happens.

I think this year is Wiercioch's coming out party.

[Alfie11]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

I really think they'll be back in the playoffs. They'll be back to the hard-working, team-oriented, defense-first hockey that got them there two year ago. Because of this, defense turnovers will be way down, corsi will be up, and Lehner and Anderson will both bounce back. Plus, I expect offensive breakouts from Wiercioch, Chiasson and especially Zibanejad, and I think Stone is set for a big first full season. Ryan will be healthy and with all this sudden depth, he'll be playing with good players no matter what line he's on; 30 goals is inevitable. In fact, this is the type of team that, once in the playoffs, could pull off an upset or two.

Hopefully they go back to the defense-oritneted hockey. I think the offense is pretty average now, so good defense + average offense should be enough to win some games. I think you need to account for some down seasons, too, though. They happen every year to different players.

I agree with you both on Wiercioch...hopefully MacLean keeps him in the lineup. I think he would have had somewhat of a coming out party last year except he got benched questionably at times.

Also Matt raises a good point about not needing a whole lot to make it into the playoffs in the East. It's very open. That's true.

[Jasmine]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

What is going on with Methot? Heard stuff here & there..doesn't sound good. Actually sounds like he is playing hard ball through the media..or at least his agent is..

[matchesmalone]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

That Orpik contract really fucked us up for Methot, precedent-wise.

[Matt the Aussie]

Re: Ryan, MacArthur and Methot

Well they had Murray on TSN talking to Bob McKenzie and saying "we're still way off" and then Methot's agent saying he was surprised by that comment because the gap is around like $300,000 per year.

I'm sorry, but as I've always said Murray is truthful to a fault - I'll believe him before I trust an agent's take.

He also mentioned that Methot knows that a trade is also an option because they can't afford to lose him in Free Agency for nothing.